Analyzing Tuesday’s Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks
The Michigan State Spartans (16-8, 8-5 Big Ten) visit the conference-rival Illinois Fighting Illini (16-7, 8-4) for a Tuesday clash at State Farm Center tipping-off at 9 p.m. ET. We analyze the Michigan State-Illinois odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
Michigan State at Illinois: Three things you need to know
1. Michigan State housed Illinois in their first meeting this season, 76-65, behind a 20-point, 6-assist effort from Cassius Winston. The Spartans defense stifled the Illini as they went just 22-for-75 from the field, including a dismal 3 of 28 from behind the arc.
2. Illinois has dropped back-to-back games, both to ranked Big Ten foes, and Michigan State has lost a season-high three straight games, including a 77-68 loss to Michigan.
3. The Fighting Illini cracked into the top 25 this season for the first time since their head coach, Brad Underwood, took over the program in 2017. Their best AP ranking was No. 19 prior to their recent slide to No. 22.
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Michigan State at Illinois: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Michigan State 72, Illinois 64
As has been the case for all of Tom Izzo’s tenure as Michigan State’s head coach, the Spartans are much more talented than the Fighting Illini. Michigan State has seven active players in RSCI’s top-100 recruits ranking and Illinois has just two.
Also, just like they struggled in the first game, don’t expect the Fighting Illini to hit many threes Tuesday. Illinois is ranked 287th in 3-point percentage while Michigan State is ranked 12th in opponent 3-point percentage. Also, Michigan State is one of the best programs at cleaning up the glass—the Spartans are ranked seventh in the nation in rebounds per game and have a plus-9 average differential. Since 2017, Michigan State has the most wins as a road favorite (18-8 record), the most wins against ranked competition (17-7), and Illinois is just 3-16 versus ranked competition.
BET MICHIGAN STATE (-129).
I feel good about Michigan State (-1.5, -118) in this spot but I don’t like the idea of laying $118 to win $100 for the Spartans to win by 2 or more points. Let’s PASS on an against the spread wager and just stick with the moneyline at nearly-even odds.
TAKE UNDER 141.5 (-110). Illinois has a 5-8 Over/Under record at home this season and 63% of Michigan State’s away games have went Under the projected total since 2017. Also, the Under is 9-3 in the Fighting Illini’s last 12 games as an underdog and the Under is 7-1-1 in the Spartans’ last nine games as a favorite.
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