It is never too early for a mock draft.
Of course, mock drafts in August always seem a bit early, given that we have an entire college football season ahead of us and we often see dramatic rises from players, such as Mitchell Trubisky a few seasons ago and Joe Burrow just last year. In the midst of a global pandemic? It seems even earlier, as who knows what the college football landscape will really look like over the next few months?
Assuming we get college football, mock drafts at this point in the calendar are a great reference. A watch list of sorts, outlining players that you should keep your eyes on once the games kick off. The selections can also be used to highlight perceived weaknesses on NFL rosters as training camps open, and by the time the NFL season kicks off, those weaknesses might already be addressed via late free agent movement or even a trade or two. So, take these all with a grain of salt and use them to cultivate your own watch lists over the next few weeks.
A word about the draft order. It was generated using the Super Bowl odds for each team as currently listed by BetMGM, which you can view here. In the case of ties, those were broken by their current ranking on Touchdown Wire’s Power Rankings. In addition, a special situation unfolded as the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs currently have the best Super Bowl odds. Since they cannot play in the big game, the Ravens were slid down and the NFC team with the best odds was slid up. Completely scientific as you can see…
Now, the selections in Touchdown Wire’s “way too early” 2021 mock draft:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Washington Football Team have the longest odds to reach Super Bowl LV, and due to their lower position on the most recent Touchdown Wire Power Rankings, Jacksonville is on the clock.
That leads us to Trevor Lawrence. The Clemson quarterback remains at the top of many quarterback boards heading into the 2020 season – although not all – but he has the perfect blend of traits for the modern game. You could see Lawrence running a timing and rhythm passing game like New England’s, you could see him running a boot-action based system like Minnesota’s or Cleveland’s, or you could even drop him into Baltimore’s offense and se him use his legs, which are a weapon in their own right.
Jacksonville is rolling with Gardner Minshew for the season ahead, but if they end up wit the first overall selection, odds are they’ll look to lock down a premier talent at the game’s most important position.
2. Washington Football Team: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
When discussing Lawrence it was noted that he might not be the top quarterback on everyone’s board. That is due to the rise of Justin Fields. In the wake of Dwayne Haskins moving to the NFL, the transfer from Georgia stepped into the starting lineup for the Ohio State Buckeyes and dazzled.
What might make Fields so intriguing as a prospect is his baseball background. We are seeing a generation of new passers such as Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray transition into the league with such a past, and that enables them to make throws from any base, from any arm angle and from the most crowded of pockets. Fields is the same, and he can generate velocity on his throws necessary to challenge the tightest of windows even when under fierce pressure in the pocket. Should Washington falter, Fields would be a great addition.
3. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Quarterbacks often get pushed up boards artificially due to positional value, but there is a chance that Sewell is the best overall player in this draft class. Matt Miller, who covers the NFL Draft for Bleacher Report, stated in a recent mock draft of Sewell that his “…2019 tape showed no weaknesses. If he continues to play at that clip in 2020, he’ll be a lock to be the first overall pick if a team without a need at quarterback selects in this spot.”
Cincinnati, with the addition of Joe Burrow, has some weapons at the skill positions on the offensive side of the football. Entering 2020 however, there are questions about the offensive line. They hope to get a full season from 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams at the left offensive tackle spot, but you need two good tackles in today’s game, and adding Sewell to the mix would be a great way to tap into the potential of Burrow and this offense.
4. Carolina Panthers: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Lots of early mock drafts have the Carolina Panthers looking to the quarterback position here, perhaps with Fields or North Dakota State passer Trey Lance. But the bet here is on Teddy Bridgewater, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady putting him in a position to be successful in 2020, allowing the Panthers to look elsewhere at the top of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Passing on LSU wideout Ja’Marr Chase might be tough for Brady, but the team has needs elsewhere, including in the secondary. There are potential names to consider at this position including Patrick Surtain II from Alabama and Tyson Campbell from Georgia, yet Farley is the selection at this spot. His medical history might be a concern, as he has a non-contact ACL tear from 2017 that cost him a season. However, Farley is the type of coverage CB that defensive coordinators covet, especially given his press coverage skills.
5. Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The Miami Dolphins had a great off-season, both in free agency and the draft. Yet oddsmakers think the team is probably a year or two away from being truly competitive, which has them picking near the top of the draft yet again.
One area they could still address is the wide receiver room. DaVante Parker seems to be finally showing what he is capable of, and had a great close to the 2019 season. In Week 17 he had quite the afternoon against Stephon Gilmore, viewed as the top cornerback in the league. But beyond Parker the Dolphins have questions at the position.
That leads us to Chase, the early front-runner for WR1. He put up huge numbers last season for the LSU Tigers, and in the process set the single season records for receiving yards and touchdowns in the SEC. No small feat from a sophomore. He is great at the catch point and has incredible change-of-direction skills both before and after the catch. Chase would be a great fit in the offense we can expect to see from Chan Gailey and the Dolphins in 2020.
6. New York Giants: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Linebacker might not be the most coveted position in the modern game, but if you are going to use an early pick on an LB, you want to get a good one.
Micah Parsons is a good one.
Parsons is a true sideline-to-sideline player, who seems to be playing two steps ahead of everyone else on the field. He combines great athleticism with tremendous vision and instincts for the position. Parsons is also able to do more than most linebackers: He was a defensive end in high school and his pass-rushing traits show up when he’s allowed to attack the passer. But he also has the coverage skills you need from a linebacker if you are going to trust them in sub packages or on third downs. He can be the matchup type of defender that modern defenses need.
The Giants have a need at linebacker, even with the off-season acquisition of Blake Martinez and the growth shown from David Mayo in 2019. Parsons would be a huge injection of talent into this defense.
7. Detroit Lions: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
There are a few reasons why Trey Lance could be the selection in this spot for the Detroit Lions. First off, one has to imagine that the seat under Matt Patricia is a bit warm, especially given the expectations set in place by ownership the past off-season. If the Lions are still picking this early in the draft, odds are that a new regime is in town, and they might want to put their stamp on the future with the new face of the franchise.
Even if Patricia returns, the Lions might think about addressing the quarterback position if they are picking near the top of the board again. This is no knock against Matthew Stafford, who remains an elite talent at the position. But Stafford has battled back injuries each of the past two seasons, and the chance to lock up a potential franchise passer is often too good to pass on. Lance might be playing at the FCS level, but don’t let that fool you. He is every bit the part of a future franchise QB.
8. New York Jets: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Patrick Surtain II might be the next player in a long line of secondary standouts from Alabama to find his way into the first round of an NFL Draft. The son of a former NFL defensive back, Surtain plays with veteran savvy and patience. Thanks to playing under Nick Saban, he’ll be ready for whatever an NFL playbook throws at him.
But in terms of his pure talent, Surtain is almost teaching tape at the position. He is patient at the line of scrimmage and never panics, but is good at getting his hands onto receivers and rerouting them off the line. He is fluid with his footwork and through his hips, allowing him to stick on receivers on double-moves and against quick cuts. He is good at the catchpoint as well, with good technique to play up through the pocket and break up potential completions. The Jets might look to a wide receiver here, depending on how Denzel Mims and Breshard Perriman pan out, but provided those players have good years, Surtain is a good fit.
