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The Miami Marlins improved on their 69-win 2022 season last year, finishing 84-78 and clinching a postseason berth for the 1st time since 2020. They were swept by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL Wild Card Series and were outscored 11-2 in 2 games.
Miami is projected to be slightly worse after its disappointing offseason. It lost SS Garrett Hampson, RHP David Robertson, and DH Jorge Soler, and it brought in SS Tim Anderson, C Christian Bethancourt, and INF Vidal Bruján. Let’s analyze the Miami Marlins’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
Miami Marlins World Series odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, March 25, at 10:09 p.m. ET.
Odds: +9000 (bet $100 to win $9,000)
Miami is tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the 8th-longest odds to win it all.
The Oakland Athletics (+50000), Colorado Rockies (+50000), Washington Nationals (+25000), and Chicago White Sox (+25000) are at the bottom of the barrell, followed by the Pittsburgh Pirates (+20000), Los Angeles Angeles (+18000), and Kansas City Royals (+15000).
The favorites to win the World Series are the Los Angeles Dodgers (+320), Atlanta Braves (+450), Houston Astros (+700), and New York Yankees (+900).
At +9000, Miami has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 1.1%.
I have no confidence in this Miami squad — especially with RHP Sandy Alcántara out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery — to win it all.
PASS.
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Miami Marlins playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes +360 | No -530
In a tough division like the NL East, Miami’s chances of making the playoffs don’t look good, especially after getting slightly worse in the winter. GM Kim Ng resigned instead of being demoted, and the Marlins ended up having 1 of the least active off-seasons in MLB.
While the Marlins’ rotation still holds up with LHP Jesús Luzardo and RHP Eury Pérez, the playoffs will likely be out of the picture this season unless the Phillies have a complete meltdown.
PASS. The Marlins won’t make the postseason, but the No (-530) line is too pricey.
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Miami Marlins win total
Over/Under: 77.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)
This number is tricky because while the Marlins should win fewer games, their rotation is still solid, and former No. 3 overall pick RHP Max Meyer could make it even more intimidating at some point this season.
The issue with the Marlins last season — which doesn’t look like it was solved in the winter — was their lineup scoring an NL-worst 666 runs. Miami fared well in close games last year, earning an MLB-record 12-0 start in 1-run games, but that luck probably doesn’t carry over this time around.
BET UNDER 77.5 (-120).
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To win NL East Division
- Atlanta Braves -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Philadelphia Phillies +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
- New York Mets +1300 (bet $100 to win $1,300)
- Miami Marlins +3500 (bet $100 to win $3,500)
- Washington Nationals +12000 (bet $100 to win $12,000)
Miami’s implied probability of winning the NL East is 2.78%. If you’re betting the Marlins to win the division, you’re pretty much playing a derivative of the Braves and Phillies simultaneously self-destructing. If that’s the case, you’d be better off playing the Unders on their win totals.
PASS.
To win National League
Odds: +4500 (bet $100 to win $4,500)
Maybe if Alcántara were healthy, I could see the Marlins going on a deep run led by their rotation. However, based on the current reality, Miami doesn’t stand a chance in a league with the Dodgers (+165) and Braves (+250), the 2 favorites to win the pennant.
PASS.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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