Miami at Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami at Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 16 Miami Hurricanes (15-3, 6-2 ACC) and Duke Blue Devils (13-5, 4-3) meet Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C. Tip-off is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Miami vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

The Hurricanes edged visiting Syracuse 82-78 last time out at home on Monday, bouncing back from an excruciating 83-81 loss in overtime at NC State in the previous outing last Saturday. Miami is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) across the past 6 games overall, with the Over hitting in 3 straight.

The Blue Devils are a mediocre 3-3 across the past 6 games overall while going 0-4 ATS across the past 4. That includes a 72-64 loss at Clemson last Saturday in the team’s most recent setback. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 for Duke.

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Miami at Duke odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Miami +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Duke -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Miami +5.5 (-105) | Duke -5.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 147.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Miami at Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

Miami 76, Duke 74

Moneyline

So far this season, Duke has been Duke in name only. The Blue Devils are mostly a good — but not great — team, and it’s a good reason why it finds itself outside of the Top 25.

MIAMI (+185) has been very good, scoring wins against the likes of Providence, Rutgers, Syracuse and Virginia. The road has been mediocre of late for the Hurricanes, losing the past 2 at NC State and Georgia Tech, but they are also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 ACC road games. This is a team primed and ready for a deep March run.

Against the spread

MIAMI +5.5 (-105) is a strong play catching the points if you just can’t play it straight up.

The Hurricanes have covered 24 of the past 31 games on the road, so it isn’t just this season Miami has played well away from home. Coach Jim Larrañaga always has his team prepared on the road and Saturday will be no different.

Duke laying the points is questionable. This is a team that has failed to cover 4 in a row while going just 1-6 ATS across the past 7 overall. That includes a 1-3 ATS mark in the past 4 at Cameron.

Over/Under

OVER 147.5 (-115) is the lean, but ever so slightly.

The trends vary greatly between the teams. The Under is 8-2 in the past 10 for The U on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 after a win. However, the Over is 4-1 in the past 5 against a team with a winning overall mark.

The Over is also 4-1 in Duke’s past 5 against winning teams while going 13-6 in the past 19 after a non-cover, and 5-2 in the past 7 after a straight-up loss.

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ACC Tournament: Miami vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami vs. Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Hurricanes (23-9) meet the Duke Blue Devils (27-5) in the semifinal of the ACC Tournament Friday. Tip from Barclays Center is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Miami vs. Duke odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Miami, the No. 4 seed, beat No. 13 Boston College 71-69 yesterday with 4 players scoring between 13 and 16 points. G Kameron McGusty led the way with 16 in the overtime victory.

On the season, the Hurricanes are 17-14-1 against the spread (ATS). While they did not cover as 8-point favorites against BC, they are 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8 regular-season games.

Miami was an ACC-best 14-7 ATS in conference games. As for top-seeded Duke, it was 17-13-2 ATS on the season, but they barely managed to beat Syracuse.

The final score was 88-79 as Duke went on a 10-0 run to end the game. Duke did not cover as 15-point favorites and went 5-5 over its last 10 regular season games.

The Blue Devils are led by freshman F Paolo Banchero, who is averaging 16.8 points per game. The Blue Devils rank No. 7 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Miami vs. Duke odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Miami +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Duke -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Miami +8.5 (-107) | Duke -8.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 147.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Miami vs. Duke odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 78, Miami 73

Money line

PASS with a slight lean to Miami +330.

Duke didn’t play well against Syracuse and lost by 2 at home to the Hurricanes earlier in the season. I still like the Blue Devils to win, but if there is money line value, it’s certainly on Miami.

Duke -450 is unplayable.

Against the spread

BET on MIAMI +8.5 (-107).

Duke gained early-season traction with wins over Gonzaga and Kentucky, but had several ugly home losses to North Carolina, Virginia, and Miami.

The Hurricanes are among the few teams that can keep pace with Duke. The Hurricanes average 74.9 points per game and rank 28th in the nation in field goal percentage at 47.7%.

They rank in the top 100 in three-point shooting, free-throw shooting, and overall shooting. While they may not win the game, those efficiencies should keep it close.

Make no mistake, their win over Duke earlier in the year was no fluke. The Blue Devils shot better from deep and 1% worse from the field. Miami was just far better with the ball, winning the turnover battle by 12.

The Hurricanes have 2 of their top 3 scorers as seniors. I’ll take the upperclassmen to keep this one close.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 147.5 (-110).

Both teams have been better this season at hitting the over of the projected total. Miami is 19-13 O/U while Duke is 17-14-1 O/U. Also, both teams are coming off high-scoring games yesterday.

Miami went over the 136.5 total with a 71-69 win. Duke and Syracuse crushed the 147.5 total with an 88-79 battle. Duke has hit the Over in 9 of its last 11 games as well.

Given its star power, it’s the better side here.

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