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The Miami Heat (1-2) and Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) square off Monday with tip-off from Fiserv Forum set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Bucks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting; tied 2-2 in regular season last year with Heat defeating Bucks 4-1 in the playoffs
The Heat were contained by the Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday night 106-90. F Jimmy Butler sat out of that one for load management. They’re having problems on offense as they’re 28th in the NBA with 101.3 points per game. They’re 28th with a 41-percent field goal percentage as well.
The Bucks were throttled 127-110 at home by the Atlanta Hawks Sunday as PG Damian Lillard had just 6 points on 2-for-12 shooting. So they’re on the back end of a back-to-back with the bad taste in their mouths.
Heat at Bucks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Bucks -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-110) | Bucks -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Bucks key injuries
Heat
- F Kevin Love (shoulder) game-time decision
- G Caleb Martin (knee) game-time decision
Bucks
- F Khris Middleton (knee) game-time decision
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Heat at Bucks picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 111, Heat 101
Moneyline
I’m siding with the Bucks, despite being on the back-to-back, because I don’t think the Heat can stop F Giannis Antetokounmpo, and I don’t think the Heat can score the 110 on them it will take to beat them. The Heat went from +180 to +220 Monday morning.
That said, there is no chance we’re taking the Bucks at this price. PASS.
Against the spread
The Heat are 1-2 ATS this year with their only cover against an inflated line against the Boston Celtics, and they barely covered that 9.5-point line. The line went from 5.5 to 6.5, and that’s about my limit to take BUCKS -6.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The total blimped up from 214.5 to 224.5, which means the books are expecting a blowout by Milwaukee. I liked the Under before the explosion because of how inept Miami has been on offense. They have trouble breaking 105, which means the Bucks have to drop 115 possibly without Middleton.
Take the UNDER 224.5 (-110).
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