Tag: Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies odds predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (11-12) face the Memphis Grizzlies (14-9) Monday at FedExForum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Grizzlies odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat took down the Boston Celtics 120-116 in overtime Friday to cover as 7-point underdogs. Miami has won 4 of its last 5 games following a 4-game losing skid from Nov. 16-21.

The Grizzlies defeated the Detroit Pistons 122-112 to cover as 6.5-point favorites Sunday. Memphis has also won 4 of its last 5 games ahead of the team’s 2nd leg of a back-to-back Monday.

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Heat at Grizzlies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Heat +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Grizzlies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Heat +1.5 (-105) | Grizzlies -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Heat at Grizzlies key injuries

Heat

  • F Jimmy Butler (knee) questionable
  • G Tyler Herro (ankle) probable
  • G Duncan Robinson (ankle) probable
  • F Max Strus (shoulder) probable
  • G Gabe Vincent (knee) questionable

Grizzlies

  • Not yet submitted

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 117, Heat 112

Moneyline

The GRIZZLIES (-125) are an enticing wager in this home game. The Grizzlies are 8-2 at home this season compared to the Heat’s 3-8 road record.

Against the spread

Considering that we only need Memphis to win by at least a 2-points to cover the spread, GRIZZLIES -1.5 (-115) is where I’m leaning in this game. While G Desmond Bane remains out, the Grizzlies are mostly healthy entering Monday’s game and it’s hard to go against G Ja Morant at home.

The Heat are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Miami is also 1-4 ATS in its last 5 meetings against Memphis.

Over/Under

OVER 225.5 (-105) is where I’m going in this game as the Heat should have most of their starters available. Even though Butler is questionable to play, Miami is expected to at least have Herro, Robinson, and Strus available on Monday.

The Over has hit in 7 of the last 9 meetings between the Heat and the Grizzlies.

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Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (4-1) visits the Memphis Grizzlies (3-2) Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at FedExForum. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Miami smoked the Charlotte Hornets 114-99 as 7-point home favorites Friday. The Heat have won and covered their last three games and are currently the best shooting team in the Association.

Memphis rallied back from an early double-digit deficit to upset the Golden State Warriors 104-101 in overtime Friday. Ja Morant finished with 30 points on 50 percent shooting with 7 rebounds 5 assists and 4 steals. However, Memphis has the second-worst defensive three-point percentage in the NBA.

The Grizzlies won and covered vs. the Heat in both regular-season meetings last year. Each victory was by at least 12 points and both teams were mostly at full health in those contests.

Heat at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Grizzlies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Heat +2.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Heat at Grizzlies key injuries

Heat

  • Nothing affecting gambling odds.

Grizzlies

  • SF Kyle Anderson (calf) questionable
  • SG Dillon Brooks (hand) out

Heat at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Grizzlies 102

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Heat (+110) since I “like” Miami plus the points. However, my buy-price for Miami’s money line in this spot is north of +125, so I’ll just take the points with the Heat.

Against the spread

There are just too many things favoring the HEAT +2.5 (-112) to not take the points. First of all, Memphis averages the fourth-most paint points per game, but Miami allows the fourth-fewest paint points per game.

Second, the Heat score the second-most fastbreak points per game and the seventh-best points per position in transition.

Whereas the Grizzlies allow the fifth-most fastbreak points per game and has the third-worst defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%) in transition.

Also, Memphis runs the eighth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll action for the ballhandler But, Miami’s defense allows the third-best points per possession vs. pick-and-roll offense for the ballhandler.

Furthermore, the Grizzlies are missing a key backcourt contributor in Brooks and first-year big Steven Adams doesn’t use his size to dominate offensively as former Memphis big Jonas Valančiūnas does.

Finally, I’d wait on betting Miami plus the points here because a vast majority of the cash is on Memphis (according to Pregame.com) and if that trend continues the HEAT +2.5 (-112) could get above 3 or higher.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-108) for 1 unit because there’s been “sharp line movement” towards the Under and the Heat don’t shoot it well enough to take advantage of the Grizzlies’ poor 3-point defense.

For instance, the Heat-Grizzlies total opened at 217 but has been steamed down to the current price by heavy Under action. Plus Memphis has the third-worst defensive eFG% but Miami ranks 23rd in offensive eFG%.

Lastly, even though Miami is very efficient in transition and the opposite is true for Memphis’s defense, the Heat play at the 19th-fastest pace and the Grizzlies’ pace ranks 21st. Fewer possessions mean fewer points, usually.

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