Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets odds predictions pick betting line spread

NBA Finals Game 2: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets NBA Finals Game 2 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets meet Sunday for Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 8 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Denver took the series opener 104-93 as a 9-point home favorite Thursday. The Heat struggled and didn’t play the way you’d expect them to. They only shot 2 free throws, setting an NBA record for fewest attempts in a playoff game.

Miami F Jimmy Butler finished with 13 points on 14 shots, numbers that the Heat will desperately need to see increase if they want a chance to win this series.

Throughout the playoffs the storyline surrounding Miami has been the productivity of their role players, but the Heat didn’t see that same productivity Thursday. F Caleb Martin, G/F Max Strus, and F Duncan Robinson combined for 6 points on 2-of-23 shooting from the floor — after averaging 33.7 points per game (PPG) in the first 18 playoff games.

Denver continued its dominance at home in these playoffs, improving to 9-0 with Thursday’s victory. C Nikola Jokic (27 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists) became the 2nd player in NBA history to record a triple-double in his Finals debut — joining Jason Kidd (2002).

Jokic wasn’t the only shining star for Denver. G Jamal Murray (26 points) and F Aaron Gordon (16 points) combined for 42 points and both shot as least 50% from the floor.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Heat at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat+290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Nuggets -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-110) | Nuggets -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Heat at Nuggets key injuries

Heat

F Caleb Martin (illness) questionable

Nuggets

Not yet submitted

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 105, Nuggets 103

Moneyline

BACK MIAMI (+290) with a small wager.

Look for Butler to have a better game and Miami’s role players to be more productive — just like they’ve been throughout the playoffs. The Heat’s 11-0 run to start the 4th-quarter Thursday showed me that they have fight in them and they can score on this Nuggets defense. Unfortunately for the Heat, it was too big a hole to climb out of — they trailed by 21 after 3 quarters..

If you don’t agree and feel strongly about Denver winning Game 2, the -375 price is way too steep. You don’t want to risk 3.75 times your potential profit.

Against the spread

BET MIAMI +8.5 (-110).

The suggestion is to DIVVY UP 1.5 UNITS between the Miami moneyline (+290) and this +8.5 spread.

The safer play is obviously taking the 8.5 points, but it would be nice to score a little bit on a Miami (+290) ML win.

Even if my predicted Heat win is wrong, you have to expect them to put up a good fight and make it a close game.

However, the Nuggets have been dominant ATS vs. the Heat, posting a 26-9 ATS record in the last 35 meetings (per Covers.com).

Including Thursday’s Game 1, Denver is 3-0 straight-up and ATS against Miami this season.

The Nuggets won 112-108 in Miami as 1-point favorites Feb. 13, and won 124-119 as 4-point home favorites Dec. 30.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-105).

The Nuggets and Heat rank 1-2 in PPG allowed in the playoffs. Denver is surrendering 107.1 PPG in the playoffs; Miami is yielding 107.3 PPG.

The Under is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 games and 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss.

For Denver, the Under is 4-1 in its last 5 home games.

If you believe in “specific day” trends, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 6 Sunday contests.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @payton_shanks on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]

NBA Finals Game 1: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets NBA Finals Game 1 odds and lines, with expert NBA picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets meet for Game 1 of their best-of-7 NBA Finals series Thursday at Ball Arena. Tip is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions

The Heat averted a disaster of historic proportions on Monday, routing the Boston Celtics 103-84 in Game 7 at TD Garden as 7.5-point underdogs. Miami had a comfortable 3-0 series lead, but blew chances in closeout games at home in both Games 4 and 6 to fall into an untenable position. However, like the 150 series before it, no team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead.

The Nuggets didn’t have to work nearly as hard in the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. Denver won 113-111 in Game 4 back on May 22 at Crypto.com Arena in Southern California to complete the series sweep. Denver has won 6 in a row overall, going 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in that run.

Denver won in 4 against the Lakers, in 6 against the Phoenix Suns and in 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, going 9-6 ATS in these playoffs. The Under is 4-2 in the last 6 outings. At home, the Nuggets are 8-0 straight up (SU) and 5-3 ATS in the postseason, while splitting the Over-Under 4-4.

Miami started out in the play-in tournament, splitting a pair of games at home while also going 1-1 ATS. They stunned the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games, topped the New York Knicks in 6 games, and then the C’s in 7. On the road, the Heat are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS, with the Over going 7-3.

Denver won 112-108 in Miami on Feb. 3 as a 1-point favorite as the Over (217.5) cashed, while the Nuggets won 124-119 as a 4-point favorite on Dec. 30 in the Mile High City, also cashing the Over (224.5).

The good news is that both teams are healthy at this time of the series, listing no meaningful players on the injury report.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Heat at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:45 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Nuggets -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-105) | Nuggets -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Heat at Nuggets key injuries

Heat

None

Nuggets

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 115, Heat 106

Moneyline

The Nuggets (-375) will cost you over 3 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s just way too much for any kind of standalone wager. Plus, there is concern with rust, as Denver has been off for 9 days since sweeping the Lakers, while the Heat (+290) played the full 7 games to dispatch the Celtics.

PASS.

Against the spread

NUGGETS -8.5 (-115) is the lean, but go really, really lightly, and expect them to get off to a slower start early on.

Denver has had a full 9 days off, which is a curse, and a blessing. At this time of the season, any R&R is good news to heal the bumps and bruises of the grueling NBA regular season and postseason. However, there could also be some continuity problems early on, as it’s difficult to just flip a switch and get back to competitive mode.

The Heat +8.5 (-105) will not have a problem, because there is no switch. They just played Monday night in Boston, in front of a hostile crowd, so the competitive juices are still flowing and fresh.

I like the HEAT +5.5 (-110) – 1ST HALF LINE, as I think Miami is able to hang around, and perhaps even lead most of the 1st half. However, C Nikola Jokic has been on a mission, and not sure anyone on Miami can slow him down in the 2nd half once he gets cranked back up.

Over/Under

OVER 219.5 (-110) is the lean, but I’d go lightly on all counts, as these teams feel each other out.

Not only was Denver 2-0 SU/ATS in the regular season series against Miami, but the Over cashed in each outing, too. The Over has connected in 4 straight meetings in the Mile High City, while hitting in 5 straight meetings in the series, too.

While the Under hit in the last 4 games for Miami, the Over is 4-0 in its last 4 when working on 2 or more days of rest. The Over is also 10-3 in the last 13 games on the road. The Over is 10-1 in the last 11 for the Nuggets when facing winning teams, and 6-1 in the last 7 when playing on 3 or more days of rest.

Check out: Game 1’s best prop bets and predictions

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (18-17) and the Denver Nuggets (22-12) meet Friday at Ball Arena in Denver. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (NBATV). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat have picked up 2 straight wins, both against Western Conference teams, including a 112-98 win on Wednesday as 8.5-point favorites against the visiting Los Angeles Lakers. In fact, Miami has won 5 in a row against the Western Conference, going 3-0-1 in the last 4 games against the West.

The Nuggets were edged 127-126 in Sacramento on Wednesday in the 2nd end of a back-to-back in California’s capital city. That loss snapped a 5-game win streak, although the Nuggets covered as 2.5-point underdogs and they’re 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 games for Denver.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Heat at Nuggets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:08 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Nuggets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +4.5 (-112) | Nuggets -4.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Nuggets key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (ankle) probable
C Dewayne Dedmon (foot) out
F Udonis Haslem (Achilles) questionable
F Nikola Jovic (back) probable
G Kyle Lowry (personal) probable
F Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
G Gabe Vincent (knee) probable

Nuggets

G Bruce Brown (ankle) questionable
F Aaron Gordon (shoulder) questionable
G Jamal Murray (knee) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 111, Heat 107

Moneyline

The Nuggets (-190) are a little on the expensive side, especially if Gordon and the Blue Arrow cannot play.

The Heat (+160) have a rather lengthy injury list, too, but if you were to roll the dice on the money line, it would be a better value.

PASS.

Against the spread

The HEAT +4.5 (-112) is the play, as long as Jimmy Buckets can suit up. All indications are that he’ll be ready, and that makes Miami the play.

The Nuggets -4.5 (-108) have managed to go 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games following a SU loss, while cashing in just 2 of the last 10 games when working on just 1 day of rest.

Over/Under

UNDER 223.5 (-110) is the lean, and it might be the best play in this game due to the lengthy injury report on both sides.

It’s all about the Under for Miami lately, going 4-1 in the last 5 games overall, while cashing in 4 of the last 5 on the road, too.

The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 games for Denver at home, while going 5-2 in the last 7 games overall.

Want action on this NBA game or any other matchups? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, SportsbookWire’s official sportsbook partner in OH, CO and NJ. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

[mm-video type=playlist id=01fb7dafw2b08817yr player_id=01evcg1x9ny8tb834m image=]

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (7-2) begin a five-game Western Conference road trip with a 9 p.m. ET tip-off against the Denver Nuggets (5-4) Monday at Ball Arena. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Miami has won six of its last seven games, including the latest being a 118-115 win over the Utah Jazz as a 1-point home underdog Saturday. The Heat are 7-2 ATS and 4-5 O/U with the second-best net rating in the Association.

Denver eked out a 95-94 home win over the Houston Rockets Saturday as a 11.5-point favorite. The Nuggets lost their previous two games, both to the Memphis Grizzlies. Denver is 3-6 ATS and 1-8 O/U with the 14th-best net rating.

The Nuggets won and covered in both meetings with the Heat last season.

Heat at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nuggets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-112) | Nuggets +1.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Heat at Nuggets key injuries

Heat

None

Nuggets

PG Monte Morris (knee) probable
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Heat at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 104, Nuggets 98

Money line

“LEAN” to the HEAT (-125) because they are much healthier and playing better basketball at the moment.

Nuggets’ reigning MVP Nikola Jokic just doesn’t have enough help. Porter was having a terrible season before being sidelined by an injury and the decline from Jamal Murray to Morris is massive.

The Heat have the highest scoring bench in the league (43.8 points per game) with the second-best +/-, while Denver’s bench scores the fourth-fewest PPG (27.3) with the third-worst +/-.

Also, this is a much better spot for Miami than Denver. The Nuggets are just 3-7 overall as home underdogs since the beginning of 2019 and the Heat are 23-16 overall as road favorites.

Against the spread

PASS since Miami’s money line is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat -1.5 (-112).

Plus, I only “lean” to Miami winning outright so if the Heat’s money line gets to -140, I’d just pass on the side and focus on the total.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 204.5 (-110) for a three-fourths unit since this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the cash is on the Under while close to 60% of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

However, I hesitate to put a full unit on the UNDER 204.5 (-110) because we are getting to the party a little late. The game opened with a 207-point total but has been steamed down to the current number.

There’s a decent amount of basketball-based logic supporting the Under here. Both squads play at a bottom-10 pace and rank in the top 4 of defensive efficiency.

The Heat have the third-best offensive FT/FGA rate but the Nuggets have the sixth-best defensive FT/FGA rate.

Also, Miami attempts the fourth-highest frequency of mid-range field goals (according to CleaningTheGlass.com). But Denver has the sixth-best defensive field-goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Wednesday’s Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (28-26) play their second of a back-to-back Wednesday against the Denver Nuggets (34-20) at Ball Arena. Below, we analyze the Heat-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Miami had its two-game winning streak snapped last night with a 106-86 blowout loss at the Phoenix Suns as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Prior to last night’s loss, the Heat won six of their previous seven games and was 5-2 against the spread in those contests.

Denver has lost two straight to the Boston Celtics Sunday and the Golden State Warriors Monday following an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS over that span).

The Nuggets waxed the Heat 109-82 earlier this season, but Miami was without SF Jimmy Butler and PG Goran Dragic, both of whom could miss tonight’s game.

Heat at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Nuggets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat +6 (-110) | Nuggets -6 (-110)
Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Nuggets: Key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
PG Goran Dragic (rest) out

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out

Special NBA Betting Promotion!

Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game today. Promotion available in CO, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA and WV. IA and PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer!

Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Heat at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Nuggets 112, Heat 101

Money line (ML)

PASS since Denver is the right side but Nuggets (-250) is too steep of a price for a team that has dropped two straight, lost their second-leading scorer for the season and playing the defending Eastern Conference champions.

Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Against the spread (ATS)

Denver’s recent form is concerning, especially after losing Murray to a season-ending knee injury Monday against the Warriors, but if Butler missing tonight’s game for the Heat, the NUGGETS -6 (-110) becomes an auto-play.

Butler has the highest on-off net rating for the Heat and is the team’s leading scorer and assist man.

Also, the “sharp” side of the market agrees with me as the bets placed are equal on both sides, but Denver has a majority of the money wagered, according to Pregame.com.

Furthermore, the Nuggets are 6-4 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record while the Heat are just 5-6 ATS on the road vs. winning teams.

TAKE the NUGGETS -6 (-110) for 1 unit unless Butler plays, otherwise, it’s a half-unit play at the adjusted spread.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit if at all because we are getting the worst of the number.

The Heat-Nuggets total opened at 214 before the market barreled into the Under and steamed it down.

Plus we have to see what Denver’s offense is going to look like without Murray in the lineup. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Murray is in the 92nd percentile of point guards in on-off team offensive efficiency.

Finally, both teams play at a snail’s pace (Denver has the second-slowest pace and Miami has the third-slowest), which lends itself well to a lower scoring contest.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]