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The Dallas Mavericks (34-28) welcome the Miami Heat (35-26) to American Airlines Center Thursday. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting; teams split 2 games last season with each winning on the road
The Mavericks lost to the Indiana Pacers 137-120 Tuesday, failing to cover as a 5.5-point home favorite. They have lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6. Dallas is just 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last 6 and 32-30 ATS on the season. The Mavericks are led by G Luka Doncic, who is averaging 34.6 points, 9.0 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game.
The Heat beat the Detroit Pistons 118-110 Tuesday, failing to cover as an 11-point home favorite. Miami has been playing very well of late, winning 7 of its last 8 and covering in 6 of those 8. The Heat at 30-30-1 ATS on the season. They are led by F Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 21.9 points.
Heat at Mavericks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +166 (bet $100 to win $166) | Mavericks -198 (bet $198 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5 (-114) | Mavericks -5 (-106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 231.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Mavericks key injuries
Heat
- G Tyler Herro (foot) out
- G Caleb Martin (thumb) available
Mavericks
- G Luka Doncic (ankle) probable
- F Maxi Kleber (knee) probable
- C Dereck Lively II (nose) available
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Heat at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 114, Heat 111
Moneyline
PASS.
The Mavericks are at home and have their key personnel active. They should come out on top, but at -198, there’s no value in betting the home side.
Against the spread
LEAN HEAT +5 (-114).
Simply put, the Heat have won for bettors while the Mavs have lost for them over the last few weeks. Dallas is 2-4 ATS over its last 6 and 3-6 ATS in its last 9 home games.
Miami has covered in 6 straight on the road and in 6 straight as an underdog. It has strong defenders as well to limit how easily Doncic and G Kyrie Irving can operate in the paint.
Considering those trends, back HEAT +5 (-114).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 231.5 (-110).
If there’s one thing both teams have done late, it is hit the Under. The Heat have failed to top 106 in 2 of their last 4 games and is 3-5 O/U in their last 8 games. They are 24-37 O/U on the season.
The Mavs have gone Under in 5 of their last 9 games and are 31-31 O/U on the season. While the issue lately has been Dallas’ defense, allowing at least 120 in 6 straight games, the Heat sit 28th in pace and won’t push the tempo of this game.
With that in mind, back UNDER 231.5 (-110).
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