The Miami Heat (12-7) travel to the “Windy City” Saturday to play the Chicago Bulls (13-7) at United Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Bulls odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Miami has alternated between winning and losing over its last four games with the latest being a 113-101 defeat at the Minnesota Timberwolves Wednesday. The Heat are 12-7 ATS and 11-8 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-6.3).
Chicago recovered from back-to-back losses to bludgeon the Orlando Magic 123-88 Friday. The Bulls are 13-7 ATS and 8-12 O/U with the fifth-best net rating (plus-4.6).
The Heat won and covered in two of their three regular-season meetings with the Bulls last season while the Over cashed in two of those contests.
Heat at Bulls odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:37 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Bulls +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-110) | Bulls +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Heat at Bulls key injuries
Heat
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Bulls
- PF Patrick Williams (wrist) out
Heat at Bulls odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 107, Bulls 102
Money line
GIMME 1 unit on the HEAT (-120) because I “like” Miami’s chances of executing its offense more so than Chicago.
The Bulls run a top-5 volume of pick-and-roll action through both the ball handler and roll man, but the Heat are top-seven in defensive efficiency against pick-and-roll action through both the ball handler and roll man.
Miami generates the second-most looks off of cuts and ninth-most off of screens according to ShotQuality.com. Chicago ranks 25th in shot quality allowed vs. field goals off cuts and 27th in shot quality allowed vs. field goals off screens.
The Heat also have two elite defensive wings with very good rim protection from big Bam Adebayo, that they can throw at Bulls wings Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. Chicago likes to operate in the mid-range and Miami has the pieces to reduce the Bulls’ effectiveness in that area.
The Heat have played better vs. elite competition than the Bulls as well. Miami is 4-2 overall with plus-8.5 points per 100 possessions and a plus-10.4 ATS margin against teams top-10 in efficiency differential, while Chicago is 3-2 overall with minus-3.5 points per 100 possessions and a minus-1.2 ATS margin.
Lastly, at the time of publishing this appears to be a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market. More money has been wagered on Miami’s money line but more bets have been placed on Chicago according to PreGame.com and typically it’s wiser to follow the money when it’s opposite the public.
BET THE HEAT (-120).
Against the spread
PASS since Miami’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat -1.5 (-110). Even though Miami will most likely win by more than one point, let’s not be cheap. Stick with the Heat outright.
Over/Under
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Under 211.5 (-115) because I think we see a lot of half-court basketball and both teams are more efficient on the defensive end of the floor. However, a vast majority of the market is betting the Under and I don’t like to follow the herd in sports betting.
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