The Miami Heat (37-21) stop by the Spectrum Center Thursday for a 7 p.m. ET game against the Charlotte Hornets (29-30). Below, we look at the Heat vs. Hornets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami had its 5-game winning streak snapped Tuesday after losing to the Dallas Mavericks, 107-99, as 5.5-point home favorites. The Heat are 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks.
Charlotte has lost eight of its past nine games (2-6-1 ATS) including back-to-back games to the Memphis Grizzlies (125-118 Saturday) and Minnesota Timberwolves (126-120 in overtime Tuesday).
The Heat are 2-0 SU and ATS versus the Hornets this season and both of their meetings went Under the total.
Heat at Hornets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Hornets +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread: Heat -5.5 (-107) | Hornets +5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Heat at Hornets key injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (shoulder) questionable
- C Dewayne Dedmon (personal reasons) out
- SG Tyler Herro (knee) out
- SG Caleb Martin (Achilles’) questionable
Hornets
- SF Gordon Hayward (ankle) out
- SF Cody Martin (ankle) out
- SF Jalen McDaniels (ankle) out
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Heat at Hornets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Hornets 117, Heat 113
Money line
SPRINKLE on the HORNETS (+175), if at all, because Charlotte’s spread is the sharper wager.
However, the Heat (-220) feels suspiciously low considering how each team is trending.
For instance, Miami has a plus-17.3 adjusted net rating (ranked third) and plus-4.8 ATS margin (ranked fifth) over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). While Charlotte has a minus-5.0 adjusted net rating (ranked 22nd) and minus-4.6 ATS margin (ranked 23rd).
Furthermore, maybe the Hornets catch the Heat snoozing as All-Star Weekend begins Friday, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Miami gave Butler the night off. Butler has been dealing with nagging injuries, and either way, the Heat are missing a couple of key contributors in Herro and Dedmon.
Again, it’s only a SPRINKLE on the HORNETS (+175).
Against the spread
Definitely BET the HORNETS +5.5 (-115), heavier than or instead of, their money line because it feels like everyone is going to be on the Heat -5.5 (-107) and Charlotte has ways it can attack Miami.
The Hornets have shot poorly lately, but they are ninth in 3-point percentage on the season. The Heat are 14th in defensive 3-point percentage but 28th in 3-point attempts allowed per game so they’ll give up looks.
Granted, Miami’s defense locked up Charlotte in their first two meetings this season, but the Hornets have a motivation edge because they surely want to enter the All-Star break on a positive note.
Also, Charlotte has a strength-on-weakness edge in ball security versus Miami. The Hornets are fifth in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and seventh in defensive TOV% whereas the Heat are 27th in offensive TOV%.
If Charlotte can get into Miami’s passing lanes, create turnovers and knock down 3s then the HORNETS +5.5 (-115) could win outright.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 225.5 (-115) for a half-unit as a fade against the early line movement, which is due to recency bias.
The first two Heat-Hornets meetings went way Under the total, and this game opened at 228 but was steamed all the way down to 225.5. And still a majority of the money is on the Under, according to Pregame.com.
Finally, we have an Over-friendly officiating crew that has a combined 76-56 O/U record, Miami is eighth in offensive FT/FGA rate and 27th in defensive FT/FGA rate so there could be a lot of free-throw attempts by both teams.
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