Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 6 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat hope to keep their season alive when they face the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics Friday at the TD Garden in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) and Boston leads the series 3-2. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston took control of the conference finals by clobbering Miami 93-80 in Game 4 Wednesday. The Celtics doubled the Heat up 32-16 in the 3rd quarter to key the victory.

Miami wing Jimmy Butler only posted 13 points on 4 of-18 shooting while Boston All-Star wing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 47 points.

The Celtics are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in this series with a plus-8.9 net rating and the total is 3-2 Over/Under (O/U).

Heat at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Celtics -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +8.5 (-110) | Celtics -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 201.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

PG Tyler Herro (groin) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 101, Heat 96

Money line

PASS because the Heat (+330) are too banged up and overmatched, but the Celtics (-450) are way too expensive for an outright bet in a clinch game.

Most of Miami’s backcourt rotation is on the injury report, Lowry is shooting just 21.7% in his 3 games played in this series with 8 assists to 7 turnovers. Herro, the Heat’s 2nd scoring option, was sidelined with an injury Games 3 and 4.

But, Miami is too well-coached and Boston is too reliant on 3-pointers to even think about laying it with the Celtics (-450).

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +8.5 (-110) because they’ll muck Game 6 up and Miami can keep this game within 3 possessions if it hits a couple of momentum-swinging 3-pointers.

Also, the Heat are 21-12-1 ATS following a loss, 15-8 ATS as road underdogs, 17-11 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record, 4-0 ATS when spotted at least 7.5 points and the backdoor is wide-open with Miami desperate to stave off elimination.

However, if the Heat’s shooting woes continue and the Celtics get quality looks from deep then Boston could bludgeon Miami for a 3rd straight game.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 201.5 (-107) because playoff games become lower scoring as a series winds down and that’s especially true for matchups featuring defenses as good as Boston’s and Miami’s.

Also, slightly more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 201.5 (-115), per Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money column of the betting splits since professional bettors put up more dough than public bettors.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics host the No. 1 seed Miami Heat Monday for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) and Miami leads the series 2-1. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami took control of the series by blitzing Boston to open Game 3 Saturday, outscoring the Celtics by 21 points in the 1st quarter and holding on for a 109-103 victory.

The Celtics lost despite outperforming the Heat in three of the “four factors”, outshooting Miami from everywhere on the floor and with Heat SF Jimmy Butler missing the entire 2nd half with a knee injury because they lost the turnover battle 23-8.

Heat big Bam Adebayo feasted on the Celtics frontcourt without second-team All-Defense C Robert Williams III. Adebayo scored a team-high 31 points on 68.2% shooting with 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals.

Heat at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Celtics -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +6.5 (-105) | Celtics -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 206.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (knee) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (groin) out
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (ankle) questionable
SF Jayson Tatum (shoulder) probable
C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 103, Heat 99

Money line

PASS because there’s no way anyone should take the Heat (+250) until the final injury report is released, if at all.

Boston should even this series up before these teams head back to Miami for Game 5 but the Celtics (-320) are a terrible long-term return on investment at that price.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Against the spread

LEAN HEAT +6.5 (-105) since they have enough defense and experience to muck this game up. If that doesn’t work then Miami’s 3-point shooting (ranked 1st during the regular season) is good enough to sneak a backdoor cover.

However, there’s no reason to rush to bet on Miami’s spread because this number will get bigger if any of the Heat’s ball-handlers or Butler are officially announced out for Game 4.

There’s a contrarian angle to taking the HEAT +6.5 (-105) as well because most of the public is going to be on the Celtics based on the “zig-zag theory” and with Miami’s sketchy injury report. A contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation for sports betting.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 206.5 (-115) because there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total, Boston was 24th in pace during the regular season, Miami was 28th and the Heat will probably try to slow this game down with their banged-up backcourt.

Roughly 70% of the action and money is on the Over per Tipico Sportsbook, but the total has been lowered from a 208.5-point opener. This line movement is suspicious since oddsmakers typically adjust the line according to their liability.

Miami’s defense ranked 6th in second-chance points per game (PPG) allowed and 1st in paint PPG allowed in the regular season. Boston’s defense was 5th in second-chance PPG allowed and 2nd in paint PPG allowed. Also, these teams were tied for the best defensive 3-point percentage in the NBA.

The UNDER 206.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game because of the market movement and the Over cashing in the first 3 games of this series so we are due for an Under.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat stop by the TD Garden to face the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics Saturday for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) with the best-of-7 series tied 1-1. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston evened the series by blasting Miami 127-102 Thursday in Game 2. The Celtics went into halftime with a 25-point lead, which they held by outperforming the Heat in three of the “four factors.”

Celtics SF Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 27 points, while PG Marcus Smart and SG Jaylen Brown chipped in 24 apiece. Tatum and Brown shot a combined 56.7% from the field (17 of 30) and Smart nearly put up a triple-double in his series debut, finishing with 12 assists and 9 rebounds.

Miami SF Jimmy Butler was sensational again in Game 3, scoring 29 points on 61.1% shooting (11 of 18), but no other Heat player scored more than 14 points.

Heat at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:19 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Celtics -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +5.5 (-107) | Celtics -5.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Heat at Celtics key injuries

Heat

PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable

Celtics

C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 105, Heat 101

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Heat (+190) because I like their spread and generally will “sprinkle” on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover.

But Butler didn’t get much support from teammates when this series was in Miami and role players typically perform better at home in the playoffs.

Also, the Heat’s ML will get juicier if Tucker and/or Lowry cannot suit up for Game 3, but Miami’s defense vs. Boston’s All-Star wings will be a question mark without Tucker.

PASS.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Against the spread

BET HEAT +5.5 (-107) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market and Miami has been profitable following losses and as road underdogs this season.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, more money is on the Heat, but 61% of the bets placed are on the Celtics -5.5 (-115). Since professional bettors put up more dough than the average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is considered the sharp side of the market.

Also, Miami is 20-11-1 ATS following a loss, 14-7 ATS with an NBA-best plus-6.0 ATS margin, 16-10 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record and 11-6 ATS as a 5-to-7.5-point underdog.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are 19-24-1 ATS as home favorites and 14-12-1 ATS at home vs. winning teams.

BET HEAT +5.5 (-107).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 207.5 (-107).

There’s reverse-line movement headed south of the total, both teams played at a bottom third of the NBA in pace during the regular season and this series is playing at a slower pace than their regular-season tempos.

Also, nearly 70% of the bets placed are on the Over 207.5 (-115), according to Pregame.com, but the total has been lowered down from the 208.5-point opener.

This type of suspicious line movement leads me to believe that the oddsmakers would like more pro-Over money. If anything, go the other way.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]