The Dallas Mavericks (24-22) will try to snap their 3-game losing streak on Friday night when they host the Miami Heat (25-21) at American Airlines Center. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat crushed the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game Wednesday night, winning 124-98 on the road as 3.5-point favorites. It was their 4th win in the last 5 games, bouncing back from an 8-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks 2 nights before. Miami is tied for last in scoring this season, averaging just 109.2 points per game, but it is also allowing the 2nd-fewest points per game (108.6).
The Mavericks lost to the Hawks Wednesday night as 2.5-point favorites, falling at home, 130-122. PG Luka Doncic scored 30 points, 8 dimes and 4 boards. The Mavericks have now lost 3 games in a row, failing to cover the spread in all of those games.
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Heat at Mavericks odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mavericks +105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-112) | Mavericks +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Heat at Mavericks key injuries
Heat
- PF Udonis Haslem (Achille’s) probable
- F Duncan Robinson (finger) out
Mavericks
- G Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle) probable
- PF Maxi Kleber (hamstring) out
- PF Christian Wood (thumb) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 110, Mavericks 105
Moneyline
The Mavericks have been struggling lately, losing their last 3 games by an average of 14 points. They’re just 4-6 in their last 10, though they have played well at home; they’re 16-7 at American Airlines Center.
The Heat are finally healthy and have the edge over the Mavericks with their defense. They’ve historically done a good job against Doncic, too, holding him to just 20.8 points per game in his career.
Bet the HEAT (-125) to win outright on the road.
Against the spread
The spread and money lines aren’t much different in this game, with the spread sitting at Heat -1.5 with a line of -105. The Heat are 5-4 when favored by 1-2.5 points this season, while the Mavericks are only 0-1-1 as 1-2.5-point underdogs, according to Covers.
I would PASS on the spread and just take the Heat on the moneyline.
Over/Under
The Heat boast one of the best defenses in the NBA and both teams play at a slow pace; they’re tied for 28th with an average of 100.8 possessions per game.
The Over/Under is obviously accounting for that, with the line set at just 218.5, but I still like the Under in this one. If the Heat can slow down Luka and limit his chances, this game should be on the lower-scoring side.
Bet UNDER 219.5 (-115).
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