The PGA Tour added a new event to its calendar this year, welcoming the Mexico Open to the mix. And despite being in its first year, the tournament has some big names signed up to play. Below, we look at the 2022 Mexico Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Jon Rahm is the overwhelming favorite this week, coming in at +425 as the outright winner. Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Abraham Ancer are also in the field, tied with Kevin Na for the second-best odds to win. Daniel Berger was planning to play but he withdrew on Monday, lessening the firepower of the field a bit. Still, with five top-40 players, including the No. 2 player in the world, teeing it up it makes this a promising event.
Vidanta Vallarta will play host to the Mexico Open this week, and it’s a relatively new course. It opened in 2015 and was designed by Greg Norman, spanning 7,456 yards and playing as a par 71. It’s the first PGA Tour event ever to be on the Pacific coast of Mexico, so it will be a new experience for those teeing it up at the spectacular venue.
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2022 Mexico Open – Expert picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Jon Rahm (+425)
It’s almost comical that Rahm is only +425 to win this week, and the gap between him and the field is pretty considerable. There are a lot of mid-tier players, but without Berger, Rahm doesn’t face a lot of star power.
There’s a perception that he’s been struggling this season, which is half-true. Rahm is 132nd in strokes gained: putting, but he’s still 6th in total strokes gained and 1st in SG: off the tee. So his ball-striking hasn’t dropped a smidge, he’s just not putting that well.
There isn’t a ton of value in taking a guy to win at +425, but you can use it almost as insurance against your longer-shot bets.
Chris Kirk (+3000)
Kirk has quietly had a very good season so far, with top-10 finishers at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational, as well as 5 total top-25 finishes. Like Rahm, he’s had trouble on the greens, but he’s 21st in total strokes gained and 9th in strokes gained: tee to green.
It’s hard to know how this course will play, but Kirk’s iron play and relatively good accuracy off the tee will benefit him.
2022 Mexico Open picks – Contender
Russell Knox (+6000)
Knox played well in New orleans and is coming off a T-21 finish at the Zurich Classic alongside Brian Stuard. That has continued a trend from the last 2 months for Knox, who has only missed 1 cut since the start of February and has 4 top-25s this season. If he has a decent week putting – he’s 198th in strokes gained: putting – he can contend because he should hit plenty of greens (21st in SG: approach).
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2022 Mexico Open picks – Long shot
Tyler Duncan (+10000)
Duncan may not be a name you’ve heard much lately but he’s been on the fringe of his first top-10 this season. He finished tied for 12th at the RBC Heritage and T-14 at the Zurich Classic after finishing no worse than T-35 in his previous 3 starts. He’s a risk to miss the cut (6 times this season) but if you’re looking for a long shot or a top-20 play, Duncan is a decent value.
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