Tag: Mets Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (4-3) welcome the New York Mets (2-5) to Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch in the 2nd game of the 4-game series is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0

The Reds lost 3-2 Friday, scoring in the first and last inning and going scoreless in the middle 7. Cincinnati has lost 2 of its last 3 and is 2-2 at home. The Reds sit 4th in the National League Central and are 3-4 against the spread (ATS).

The Mets, who have the highest payroll in the MLB, have high expectations but were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers to start the season and lost their first 5. New York has won 2 in a row. It is 1-6 ATS on the season and 1-0 straight up and ATS on the road.

Mets at Reds projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Nick Martinez

Severino (0-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 2.20 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 5 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 11 H, 3 ER (6 R), 1 HR, 6 K in a 7-6 home loss to the Brewers
  • 2023 road splits: 1-6, 8.14 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 44 ER — 13 HR), 20 BB, 45 K in 10 starts (11 appearances)

Martinez (0-0, 5.40 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 5 IP.

  • Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER (3 R), 1 HR, 3 K in a 6-5 home win over the Washington Nationals
  • 2023 home splits: 3-1, 2.60 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 18 ER — 5 HR), 21 BB, 65 K in 4 starts (33 appearances)

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Mets at Reds odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Reds -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+142) | Reds +1.5 (-176)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Mets at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET REDS (-116).

Cincinnati has lost 2 games this season, and it has won each game following, beating the Nats 6-5 after a 6-7 loss and the Phillies 4-1 after a 9-4 loss. The Reds should also have a pitching advantage given how poor Severino was both in his first start of the season and on the road last year.

The Mets are 2-5 straight up and haven’t won with any consistency. They have scored 3 or fewer in all but 1 game. Expect Cincinnati to bounce back and take REDS (-116).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The run line offers no good value here as the Mets are too risky as an ATS favorite while the Reds are too expensive, having lost 2 of their last 3 both ATS and straight up.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-122).

The Mets are 2-5 O/U on the season and have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games. New York has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games and has allowed more than 5 just twice.

The Reds might be 5-2 O/U but have gone Under in 2 straight games and have failed to score more than 4 runs in 3 straight. They have held their opponent to 4 runs in their last 2 games.

Take UNDER 9.5 (-122).

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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cincinnati Reds (15-21) conclude a 3-game series against the New York Mets (18-19) on Thursday. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

After a strong start to the season by winning 6 of their first 7, the Mets have struggled as of late, losing 3 of their last 4. They did beat the Reds on Wednesday 2-1 though.

The Reds have alternated between winning and losing over their last 5 games. They beat New York 7-6 to open up the 3-game series on Tuesday.

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Mets at Reds projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Derek Law

Senga (4-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 18 IP.

  • First career start against Cincinnati.
  • Is 2-0 on the road this season; Mets have won those 2 games by a combined 26-10

Law (2-4, 3.00 ERA) makes his 1st start (18th appearance). He has a 1.50 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 32 IP.

  • First start since 2019 when he played with Toronto
  • His 3.00 ERA is his lowest since his 2016 rookie season
  • Pitched 1 inning in Reds’ 7-6 win over Mets on May 9 (1 H,1 BB)

Mets at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (-130) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Reds 5

Moneyline

PASS.

Law has been good this season in relief, but given he isn’t an everyday starter, he may struggle to stay in the game past 4 innings. Couple that with Cincinnati’s bullpen having allowed the 9th-most hits, and the home side to win outright isn’t worth a play at (+165).

The Mets are too expensive to play just to win as well at (-200). Ultimately, pass on a moneyline play.

Run line/Against the spread

BET REDS +1.5 (+105).

The Reds are one of the best teams in the MLB against the spread (ATS). They are 21-15 and have had 3 of their last 5 games end within a run.

While Senga has been a quality option and is undefeated, his road success has come behind a potent Mets’ offense, not necessarily top-tier pitching.

Expect Cincinnati to score some and be able to keep this close. Take REDS +1.5 (+105).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 10 (-115).

The Mets have gone Over in 2 of their last 3 games and should be able to crack into the Reds bullpen early with Law on the mound.

As for the Reds, they are 19-17 O/U this season and 3-2 O/U in their alst 5 games. They have scored 4 or more in 3 of their last 4, so they should bounce back after having just 1 run on Wednesday.

Take the OVER 10 (-115).

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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (27-51) welcome the New York Mets (49-30) to Great American Ball Park for the 1st of a 3-game series Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting of 2022. The teams split 6 games in 2021.

The Reds snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 4-3 win Sunday over the Atlanta Braves to avoid a sweep. Cincinnati has won 3 of its last 7 after a historically bad start to the season.

The Mets, on the other hand, sit atop the NL East. New York most recently won 2 of 3 against the Rangers at home. The Mets rank 4th in the MLB in batting average (.256).

Mets at Reds projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Walker (6-2, 2.72 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 72 2/3 IP.

  • A 1st-time All-Star last season, he’s almost cut his ERA in half from 4.47 last season. He’s allowed just 3 HRs on the season.
  • No-decision in Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Houston Astros with 7 1/3 IP, 0 R,  4 H, 2 BB and 3 K. The Mets are just 7-6 in his 13 starts.

Greene (3-9, 5.72 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 74 IP.

  • The high-potential 22-year-old former 1st-round pick has allowed a league-high 20 HRs. Cincinnati is just 3-12 in his 15 starts.
  • Has allowed at least 3 ERs in each of his last 3 starts while under 6 innings in each. In Wednesday’s 8-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs he allowed 3 ER in 4 IP.

Mets at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:13 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Mets at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Reds 2

Money line

AVOID.

The Mets may be the top team in the NL East, but they are just 23-17 on the road this season.

At -170, I would avoid betting them to win outright. Couple Greene’s recent performances with the Reds’ awful bullpen, and Cincinnati to win at +135 isn’t worth the wager.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN METS -1.5 (-105).

The Reds scored just 1 run against Max Fried to open their series with Atlanta and totaled just 6 runs in the 3 games. Cincinnati’s offense just hasn’t been there as of late.

Greene is a strikeout-heavy pitcher and will be facing the team with the 5th-fewest strikeouts this season.

The Reds are 7-8 against the run line with Greene starting and have lost 4 of their last 5 by multiple runs. The Mets have won 4 of Walker’s last 8 starts by multiple runs.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9.5 (-102).

The Reds have gone under the projected total in 2 straight games and only scored 1 run the game prior.

With starting SS Kyle Farmer day-to-day as well, there’s not much reason to back their offense. Similarly, the Mets might be facing a pitcher that allows home runs, but they rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs.

New York has scored 4 or fewer in 6 straight and under 6 in 10 straight. Their bats aren’t red hot coming into this series either. Expect a low-scoring battle, especially with Walker on the mound.

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Best bets for Wednesday’s New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds matchup

The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds play the rubber match of a three-game series Wednesday. We look at the odds and make our best bets.

The New York Mets (49-43) and Cincinnati Reds (49-46) finish up a three-game series at Great American Ball Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Marcus Stroman is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 6-8 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 103 2/3 IP spanning 20 starts.

Stroman has been solid throughout the season but has lost four straight decisions. Since returning from a minor hip issue he has made four starts and allowed 10 ER across 18 IP with 11 strikeouts.

RHP Jeff Hoffman, who has been sidelined since late May due to shoulder soreness, is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 3-4 with a 4.61 ERA, 1.59 WHIP,  8.6 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 across 41 IP over 10 starts.

Hoffman’s skills have been pretty shaky, but he has allowed 1 or zero earned runs in four of his five home starts this season. Over five rehab appearances, he totaled 18 1/3 IP and allowed 7 ER and 5 homers while posting a 25/5 K/BB.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Mets at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mets 6, Reds 5

Money line (ML)

Hoffman is coming off an extended absence, and even at full strength, his control issues make him a risky proposition.

Stroman’s performance has slipped a bit in recent weeks, but the Mets still come into this game with the clear pitching edge. Back the METS (-150).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Hoffman’s ratios aren’t very strong and the ERA estimators indicate he has been fortunate they’re not even worse. The Mets should have success against him in his first start back from the injured list.

However, Stroman hasn’t quite looked like himself lately and hasn’t gone more than five innings since June 17. The Reds are tied for third in the majors in runs per game at home (5.48) and should keep it close, so PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Mets have gone 3-2 against the O/U over their last five games, while the Reds are 4-1 against the number. Both teams are 4-1 against the O/U over their last five games against right-handed starters.

Neither starting pitcher is a great bet to shut down the opposition, so look for enough offense to push this total OVER 10.5 (-105).

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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (49-42) and Cincinnati Reds (48-46) continue their three-game series Tuesday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York took the first game of the series in a wild 15-11 extra innings affair in which the Mets hit 7 home runs but committed 4 errors and had to rally back from a 7-3 deficit after the second inning.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0.

RHP Robert Stock is New York’s projected starter. He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA (8 IP, 7 ER) on 8 H and 8 BB against 8 K over two starts, one with the Chicago Cubs and one for New York.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-0, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K July 7 against the Milwaukee Brewers.

LHP Wade Miley makes his 17th start for the Reds. He is 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA (96 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K at the Brewers July 9.
  • 2021 home stats: 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB rate through eight starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Mets at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 9, Mets 5

Money line (ML)

BET the REDS (-140) for 1 unit because Miley has been the most consistent starter in Cincy’s rotation. The Mets are also only 21-28 on the road and 9-16 against lefty starters.

New York’s lineup is 22nd in both wOBA and OPS and has the fourth-lowest hard-contact rate in the majors against left-handed pitching.

Furthermore, Miley is an innings eater for the Reds and has pitched a quality start in five of his last six outings, which is something they desperately need because the bullpen is atrocious.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+125) since I’m high on Miley as a starter and oddsmakers are projecting a higher-scoring game so there’s a good chance the victor will win by 2 or more runs.

However, what’s holding me back is Cincinnati’s 14-22 ATS record as a home favorite this season and New York’s 17-8 ATS record as a road underdog.

Also, the Reds’ Game 1 loss to the Mets was just further proof Cincy’s bullpen is completely unreliable so it’s tough laying -1.5 in most games.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit because the market is barreling into the Over.

Cincinnati is 27-19-1 O/U at home this season and New York is 28-18-2 O/U on the road. Even though Miley has been good the Reds are still 10-6 O/U in his outings.

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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (48-42) travel to Great American Ball Park Monday to start a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (48-45). First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York won just three of its last seven games in back-to-back home and away series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Mets snapped a three-game losing skid with a 7-6 road win Sunday.

Cincy was swept in a three-game home set against the Milwaukee Brewers this past weekend. The Reds previously won three of four on the road against Milwaukee entering the All-Star Break.

Season series: Tied 0-0.

RHP Jerad Eickhoff is on the mound for the Mets. He is 0-1 with a 4.97 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 17 H, 4 BB and 6 K across two starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last start: Loss, 8-4, with 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Washington Nationals June 28.
  • Eickhoff gave up two earned runs on six hits with no walks or strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings of bullpen duty in New York’s 6-5 loss to the Pirates last Sunday.

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 4-3 with a 4.29 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 over nine starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 0 K in Cincy’s 4-3 victory at the Brewers July 10.
  • 2021 home stats: 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 1.8 K/BB rate and 5 home runs allowed in three starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Mets at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Reds 8, Mets 5

Money line (ML)

The play is to BET 1 unit on the REDS (-115) because New York’s bullpen has been bad this month, Cincy outscores New York by more than a full run per nine innings against right-handed pitching and the Mets struggle on the road.

New York’s bullpen is dead-last in WAR this month and in the bottom-10 of several advanced pitching metrics including xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and home runs allowed per nine innings in July.

Also, Gutiérrez’s biggest flaw through his rookie seasons is giving up home runs—especially at home—but the Mets are 25th in home runs, 22nd in hard-hit rate and 21st in home run to fly-ball rate this year.

Furthermore, the Mets are just 20-28 in away games and their lineup ranks either 18th or 19th in wRC+, wOBA and OPS on the road.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+155) alternate run line because I’m on Cincy’s money line and very much down on New York’s pitching staff.

That said, prior to this month, New York’s bullpen was one of the best units in the majors whereas Cincy’s bullpen has been awful the whole year.

Plus, the Mets are 16-8 ATS as road ‘dogs this season and the Reds are 14-21 ATS as home favorites.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over because one starter is a fringe rotation guy, the other is a rookie and both bullpens have been raked lately.

However, we’d be getting to the party too late by betting the Over at this price since this game opened with a 9.5-run total before the market steamed it up.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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