Mets Marlins picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The New York Mets (63-37) wrap up a 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (47-54) Sunday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. won the 1st 2 games of this series by a combined score of 10-4.

Mets SP Carlos Carrasco shut down Miami’s lineup, pitching 7 2/3-scoreless innings, striking out 7 with just 4 hits and 2 walks Saturday. N.Y. SS Francisco Lindor went 3-for-4 at the plate with 1 home run and 2 RBIs.

Season series: N.Y. leads 9-4 and has a plus-24 run differential in those meetings.

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Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Walker is 8-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 97 2/3 IP over 17 starts.

Last start: Win, 6-3, Tuesday at home vs. the New York Yankees with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 21 K in 3 starts.

Lopez is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 116 IP across 20 starts.

Last start: Win, 2-1, Tuesday at the Cincinnati Reds with 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 11 K.
2022 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.

Mets at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Marlins +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+120) | Marlins +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)

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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 2

Money line

RISK 1 UNIT on the METS (-150) instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the price.

But, the Mets are 12-6 straight up (SU) as road favorites of -140 or greater with an average final score of 4.22-2.61.

Whereas the Marlins (+122) are 1-11 SU as home underdogs vs. right-handed starters with an average final deficit of 4.58-2.67.

Furthermore, Walker’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. Miami’s lineup are much better than Lopez’s against N.Y.

Walker has a 24.7% K-rate in 97 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Marlins batters with a .214/.252/.286 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, per Statcast.

On the other hand, Lopez has a 19.8% K-rate in 116 PA vs. current Mets hitters with a .288/.352/.438 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the METS (-150) to earn a $66.67 profit instead of betting $150 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN METS -1.5 (+120) only because N.Y.’s RL would need to be north of +140 to fully endorse a “sprinkle”.

However, the Mets are 18-13 RL as road favorites, 28-14 RL in NL East games and 7 of N.Y.’s 9 wins vs. Miami this season have been by at least 2 runs.

Also, the Marlins +1.5 (-145) are 3-9 RL as home underdogs vs. right-handed starters with a minus-58.0% return on investment.

Over/Under

PASS.

Both pitching staffs are elite, and the Mets are 5-11-1 O/U in Walker’s starts, but the Under 7.5 (-140) is far too expensive considering the Marlins are 12-8 O/U in Lopez starts.

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The New York Mets (61-37) visit the Miami Marlins (47-52) Friday at loanDepot park for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 7-4 and has a plus-18 run differential in those meetings.

The Mets are 3-3 straight up (SU) since the All-Star break but have won 3 straight games: the series finale vs. the San Diego Padres Sunday and a 2-game sweep of the New York Yankees mid-week.

The Marlins split a 4-game series at the Cincinnati Reds concluding with a 7-6 win Thursday after taking 2-of-3 games at the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend. Miami is 4-4 SU following the All-Star Game.

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Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Bassitt is 7-7 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 109 IP across 18 starts.

Last start: Loss, 2-1, at home Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 11 K.
2022 vs. the Marlins: 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 17 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 17 K through 3 starts.

Alcantara is 9-4 with a 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 144 1/3 IP over 20 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 6-5 win at the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 10 K.
2022 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA (22 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 16 K over 3 starts.

Mets at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Marlins 1

Money line

BET the METS (-125) because they are taking sharp action, they are 13-1 SU after a rest day and 4-0 SU as road favorites with Bassitt on the mound.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market with roughly 60% of the money on the Mets but a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Marlins, per Pregame.com. It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough.

The Marlins’ love in the market makes sense because Alcantara is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young and Bassitt is at the bottom of N.Y.’s rotation.

However, Bassitt has a 2.98 xFIP since the beginning of June, which includes 3 quality starts vs. the Marlins and a victory in Miami June 25.

New York’s lineup and bullpen are both more productive than Miami’s.

BET the METS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN METS -1.5 (+145) because they are 10-4 RL following a rest day, 16-13 RL as road favorites and 4-0 RL as road favorites with Bassitt on the bump. The Marlins are 2-5 RL when playing with a rest disadvantage and 16-29 RL at home.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-120) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for the total as well with the presumed sharp money being on the Under, per Pregame.com. Most of the O/U situational trends favor a higher-scoring affair making the UNDER 6.5 (-120) a solid contrarian play.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

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