New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (35-18) visit Dodger Stadium Friday for the 2nd game of their 4-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (34-17) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. won the season series opener 2-0 Thursday thanks to a gem by the Dodgers pitching staff who allowed just 3 hits with only 1 walk while striking out 9 N.Y. batters. The Mets’ loss snapped a 6-game win streak.

Mets at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. LHP Tyler Anderson

Bassitt is 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 59 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 5-4 home win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Dodgers: One start while pitching for the Oakland Athletics — a 5-1 loss at home April 6 — with 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.

Anderson is 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 2 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Win, 3-1, Sunday at the Arizona Diamondbacks with 6-scoreless IP with 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mets: One start while pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates — a 6-2 win in N.Y. July 10 — with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 2 K.

Mets at Dodgers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Dodgers -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 5, Mets 4

Money line

BET the DODGERS (-160) because Anderson has more impressive advanced pitching numbers than Bassitt and L.A.’s lineup is far more productive vs. right-handed pitching than the Mets are against lefties.

Anderson has a better hard-hit rate, chase rate, BB% and expected ERA according to Statcast, and 4 of Bassitt’s 6 pitches have a plus-run value.

The Dodgers are also 21-12 against right-handed starters and L.A.’s lineup ranks 1st in wRC+ (122), wOBA (.343) and BB/K rate (0.54) and 3rd in hard-hit rate (33.7%) vs. righties, per FanGraphs.

Whereas the Mets are just 8-8 against left-handed starters and N.Y.’s lineup has a 109 wRC+ (ranked 14th), .316 wOBA (14th), 0.42 BB/K rate (12th) and 27.2% hard-hit rate (21st) vs. lefties.

BET the DODGERS (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN DODGERS -1.5 (+130) since there isn’t a ton of value in this number but they have a 3-phase edge over the Mets in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

L.A. is 29-21 RL as a favorite but there is reverse line movement towards N.Y. in the ML market (according to Pregame.com) and the Mets are 7-3 RL as underdogs so I prefer to just stick with our Dodgers ML ticket.

Over/Under

PASS.

L.A. is 14-10 O/U as a home favorite, N.Y. is 5-2-1 O/U as a road underdog and these teams have a combined 11-6 O/U record when these starters are on the hill.

But, the Over 8.5 (-102) could be a trap line given these trends and the Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Mets-Dodgers meetings.

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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (35-17) and Los Angeles Dodgers (33-17) clash in a 10:10 p.m. ET showdown Thursday. The battle at Dodger Stadium lifts the lid on a 4-game series between the clubs with the best 2 records in the NL. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: first meeting.

The Mets arrive at Chavez Ravine with a 6-game win streak in tow.  New York’s National League entry is 11-3 with an .862 OPS since May 18.

The Dodgers head into this series on a down note, having lost 3 games in a row to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Los Angeles pitching was roughed up for 19 runs across the Monday-Wednesday set against the Pirates. That’s after allowing all of 18 runs over their previous 8 games (May 22-29).

Mets at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin

Walker (3-0, 2.83 ERA) has made 7 starts in the 2022 season. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 through 35 IP.

  • Has held opposing batters to a .602 OPS over his last 4 starts (1.88 ERA).
  • Current Dodger bats own an aggregate .777 OPS against him.

Gonsolin (5-0, 1.80 ERA) is tabbed for his 10th start of the season. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 45 IP.

  • Has not yielded more than 2 ER in any start.
  • Owns a 1.29 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home this season.
  • Has registered a 2.08 ERA at Dodger Stadium since 2020.

Mets at Dodgers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:16 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Mets +1.5 (-140) | Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Mets 3

Money line

Looking at runs scored versus allowed, the Mets are perhaps 2 or 3 wins too far out over their skis, and the opposite holds true for the Dodgers.

Walker runs into a lot of contact and so far has seen some kind rates around the margins, so he’s a solid fade candidate heading into June.

The Dodgers are at their best against right-handed pitching, and their bullpen is better suited to deal with key lefty-bat plate appearances late.

PEG LOS ANGELES (-175) AS HAVING JUST ENOUGH VALUE.

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Run line/Against the spread

Over their last 11 home games, the Dodgers have managed just 2 multi-run wins. Look for a bounce-back answer to being swept by Pittsburgh. Consider a partial-unit play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under

The Over, which is 8-0 in New York’s last 8 games, is a slight lean. However, a PASS is suggested unless an Over 8.5 (-115) tag becomes available.

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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (60-63) and Los Angeles Dodgers (78-46) cap off a four-game series Sunday with a 4:10 p.m. ET game at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Marcus Stroman is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 8-12 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 139 2/3 IP over 26 starts.

  • Has benefited from a .281 batting average on balls in play and a favorable runner-stranded rate. Expected-ERA measures peg him in the high-3s. His Statcast xERA (4.36) is worse still. That figure is based on quality of contact (hard hits, optimal launch angle, etc.).

LHP David Price is the projected starter for the Dodgers. He is 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 59 2/3 IP spanning 31 games (10 starts).

  • Making his fourth straight appearance as a starter. Clocked a 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the previous three (14 IP)
  • Owns a 3.06 and 1.21 WHIP at Dodger Stadium this season.

Mets at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-130) | Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Mets 4

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers are up 3-0 in the series after three low-scoring games. Overall, Los Angeles has won nine in a row and 13 of its last 14 games. Over those 14 games, Dodger pitching has compiled a sparkling 1.84 ERA.

New York is just 5-15 this month, and while its offense has been shaky most of the season it has been especially anemic in August. This month, the Mets are averaging 3.3 runs per game on a .633 OPS. N.Y. enters Sunday’s game having lost eight of its last nine contests.

Los Angeles is 11-2 across its last 13 games in Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers are 11-3 over their last 14 home games against the Mets.

The home nine is tagged with a fair price in Sunday’s finale. TAKE LOS ANGELES (-200).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Dodgers have won six games by a lone run over their nine-game win streak and that has the public perhaps too skittish on this play. This is a Dodgers club that has won 29 games by 5 or more runs.

The Mets are closing out a West Coast road trip and are 3-6 in road-trip end games. Five of those six losses were by multiple runs.

With an Over lean (see below), TAKE THE DODGERS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under (O/U)

After a couple of low-scoring games, it feels risky to look for an Over here but there is some fade-Stroman momentum at work and some good arms in the L.A. bullpen likely to stay on the shelf after being utilized multiple times in this series already.

A breeze-out afternoon at Dodger Stadium is also in the mix. TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-122) Sunday.

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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (60-62) and Los Angeles Dodgers (77-46) continue a four-game set Saturday with a 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Rich Hill is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 6-4 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 in 117 IP over 23 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Owns a 5.26 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across six starts in the second half.
  • Facing a left-leaning Dodgers lineup that is hitting in the lesser half of its platoon split with a .725 OPS against left-handed pitching.
  • Left-handed bats own a .647 OPS against Hill this season.

RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Dodgers. He is 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in 127 1/3 IP over 22 starts.

  • Owns a 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over three starts with the Dodgers after coming over from the Washington Nationals in a deadline deal. Making just his second Dodger Stadium start since that trade.
  • Facing the Mets for a second straight start; logged 6 innings of 2-run ball Sunday at Citi Field.
  • Has allowed a .652 OPS over his career and just a .612 mark across 10 lifetime games at Dodger Stadium.

Mets at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Dodgers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (+105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers are up 2-0 in the series after a couple of pitcher duels resulting in just 10 total runs scored. New York is just 5-14 this month and while its offense has been shaky most of the season it has been especially awful in August averaging 3.3 runs per game on a .626 OPS.

The Dodgers are 14-3 in August and enter Saturday’s game on an eight-game win streak. Los Angeles is 10-2 over its last 12 games in Chavez Ravine and is 10-3 over its last 13 home games against the Mets.

As good as the Dodgers have been they have motored along with a win percentage perhaps under what it “should be” all season based on runs and runs allowed.

Dodgers (-280) is perhaps just a bit too high of a tag here. PASS, but be ready to pounce on anything lower than -270 or -265.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Dodgers have won five games by a lone run over their eight-game win streak and that has the public perhaps too skittish on this price. Especially for a club that has won 29 games by 5 or more runs.

With an Over lean (see below) and a fair price on the home side (best starter, best bullpen, best offense), TAKE THE DODGERS -1.5 (-130).

Over/Under (O/U)

After a couple of low-scoring games, it feels risky to look for an Over here with Scherzer on the mound and the Dodgers swung around against a left-handed starting pitcher.

However, with a nod to the Dodgers offense and on a humid, breeze-out afternoon at Dodger Stadium, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-130) Saturday.

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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (60-61) and Los Angeles Dodgers (76-46) continue a four-game set Friday with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Carlos Carrasco is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He has allowed 13 ER on 18 H and 3 BB with 12 K through 11 1/3 IP spanning four starts in 2021.

  • Facing the Dodgers in a second straight start. Allowed 6 ER on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3 across 2 IP Sunday.
  • Owns a 3.83 career ERA and a 4.63 mark over the last three years.

RHP Walker Buehler is the projected starter for the Dodgers. He is 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 154 2/3 IP over 24 starts.

  • Has benefited from generous rates around the margins (.237 batting average on balls in play, 85.0% left-on-base rate, 9.5% home run/fly ball). Expected-ERA measures peg Buehler in the 3.60-3.75 range.
  • Faced these Mets Saturday and allowed 1 run on 4 H and 3 BB with 10 K across 7 IP.
  • Hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in a single start since July 17 and owns a 1.08 ERA over that span (five starts).
  • Has a 2.37 ERA and 0.91 WHIP at Dodger Stadium since 2019.

Mets at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

With Thursday’s 4-1 loss in the series opener against Los Angeles, New York is just 5-13 this month. The Mets offense has been shaky most of the season but it has been woeful this month. New York went into this series slashing all of .223/.296/.347 (.643 OPS) in August.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have started to live up to the offensive prowess they’ve displayed the last few years. Over 16 games in August, L.A. has batted .262/.350/.475 (.824). The Dodgers scored 5.7 runs per game over that stretch and the bats were the plus side in an equation that produced 13 wins against three losses.

Los Angeles is 9-2 over its last 11 games in Chavez Ravine and the Dodgers are 9-3 over their last 12 home games against the Mets.

As good as L.A. has been, its win percentage doesn’t adequately reflect its impressive run differential of plus-1.7 per game. In fact, Los Angeles has scored the most runs in the NL this year while allowing the fewest per game in MLB.

That’s something the Dodgers are trying to do for a fourth consecutive season (they would be the first club since the New York Yankees from 1936-39 to do so).

Don’t be put off by the tag here. The DODGERS (-250) come at a fair price and in this case, it is one that can be leveraged for profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Dodgers “bullpen’d” Thursday’s game, but usage and pitch counts came out such that L.A. is still in decent shape for Friday.

That gives the home nine much the better starter/bullpen combo and the Los Angeles ‘pen leads MLB in ground-ball percentage (48.4%). That may factor as a key advantage on a humid, breeze-out night at Dodger Stadium.

TAKE THE DODGERS -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS on a well-made number and with Carrasco (and any long relief behind him) being a wild card.

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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (60-60) and Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46) play the first game of a four-game series at Dodger Stadium Thursday, with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Taijuan Walker (7-7, 3.75 ERA) makes his 23rd start.  He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 117 2/3 IP.

  • Solid in his last start against the Dodgers Saturday in New York, allowing just 1 run on a solo shot in the seventh inning.

Dodgers RHP Corey Knebel (2-0, 2.89 ERA) makes his first start of the season. He has allowed 3 ER on 5 H and 4 BB with 13 K over 9 1/3 IP spanning 12 relief appearances.

  • Has never made an MLB start and isn’t likely to pitch deep into the game as an opener.
  • The L.A. bullpen has a 3.04 ERA and 3.92 xFIP across 438 combined innings this season.

Mets at Dodgers odds, lines, picks, and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-122) | Dodgers -1.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Dodgers 8, Mets 4

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers are 39-20 at home and have a slugging percentage of .429 as a team overall. 1B Max Muncy leads Los Angeles with a .575 slugging percentage and has 49 extra-base hits, including 28 home runs on the season.

Los Angeles swept New York last week but two of those contests went to extra innings. The Dodgers are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings dating back to 2019, including winning each of the last four.

Lean DODGERS (-220).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Dodgers won 14-4 in the latest head-to-head meeting, as RHP Max Scherzer earned his 10th victory on the season.

Muncy went 2-for-4 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs for Los Angeles, while RHP Carlos Carrasco took his first loss for New York.

Lean DODGERS -1.5 (-102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Los Angeles is 9-1 over its last 10 outings with a .262 batting average and 1.78 team ERA while outscoring the opposition by 39 runs in the process.

Lean to the OVER 9.5 (+100).

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