The New York Mets (35-18) visit Dodger Stadium Friday for the 2nd game of their 4-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (34-17) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. won the season series opener 2-0 Thursday thanks to a gem by the Dodgers pitching staff who allowed just 3 hits with only 1 walk while striking out 9 N.Y. batters. The Mets’ loss snapped a 6-game win streak.
Mets at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Chris Bassitt vs. LHP Tyler Anderson
Bassitt is 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 59 IP across 10 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 5-4 home win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Dodgers: One start while pitching for the Oakland Athletics — a 5-1 loss at home April 6 — with 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
Anderson is 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Last start: Win, 3-1, Sunday at the Arizona Diamondbacks with 6-scoreless IP with 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mets: One start while pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates — a 6-2 win in N.Y. July 10 — with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 2 K.
Mets at Dodgers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Dodgers -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Mets 4
Money line
BET the DODGERS (-160) because Anderson has more impressive advanced pitching numbers than Bassitt and L.A.’s lineup is far more productive vs. right-handed pitching than the Mets are against lefties.
Anderson has a better hard-hit rate, chase rate, BB% and expected ERA according to Statcast, and 4 of Bassitt’s 6 pitches have a plus-run value.
The Dodgers are also 21-12 against right-handed starters and L.A.’s lineup ranks 1st in wRC+ (122), wOBA (.343) and BB/K rate (0.54) and 3rd in hard-hit rate (33.7%) vs. righties, per FanGraphs.
Whereas the Mets are just 8-8 against left-handed starters and N.Y.’s lineup has a 109 wRC+ (ranked 14th), .316 wOBA (14th), 0.42 BB/K rate (12th) and 27.2% hard-hit rate (21st) vs. lefties.
BET the DODGERS (-160).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN DODGERS -1.5 (+130) since there isn’t a ton of value in this number but they have a 3-phase edge over the Mets in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
L.A. is 29-21 RL as a favorite but there is reverse line movement towards N.Y. in the ML market (according to Pregame.com) and the Mets are 7-3 RL as underdogs so I prefer to just stick with our Dodgers ML ticket.
Over/Under
PASS.
L.A. is 14-10 O/U as a home favorite, N.Y. is 5-2-1 O/U as a road underdog and these teams have a combined 11-6 O/U record when these starters are on the hill.
But, the Over 8.5 (-102) could be a trap line given these trends and the Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Mets-Dodgers meetings.
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