Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets predictions pick betting line spread

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (38-23) will hit the road to face the Denver Nuggets (44-19) Friday at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Grizzlies defeated the Houston Rockets 113-99 Wednesday to cover as 10.5-point road favorites. Memphis is on a 3-game winning streak and is 5 games behind the Nuggets for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets covered as 12.5-point road favorites in Tuesday’s 133-112 victory over the Rockets. Denver is on a 2-game winning streak.

This will be the 3rd meeting between Memphis and Denver this season. The Grizzlies and the Nuggets split the first two meetings, and the Under hit in both games.

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Grizzlies at Nuggets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Grizzlies +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Nuggets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Grizzlies +4.5 (-105) | Nuggets -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Grizzlies at Nuggets key injuries

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (knee) out

Nuggets

F Aaron Gordon (ribs) probable
F Michael Porter Jr. (heel) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Grizzlies at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 117, Grizzlies 109

Moneyline

AVOID.

Despite Denver’s impressive 28-4 record at home this season, I wouldn’t advise taking the Nuggets to win at -190.

Against the spread

BET NUGGETS -4.5 (-115).

Once again, the Nuggets are 28-4 at home, and they haven’t lost at home with C Nikola Jokic in the lineup since Dec. 6th. Denver is also 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.

Over/Under

Even though this is a matchup of the best teams in the Western Conference, UNDER 233.5 (-110) is the pick here. Both teams are in the top half of the league in defensive rating and allow a combined 224.4 points per game.

The Grizzlies are 13-3-1 to the Under in their last 17 games overall, and the Under is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings.

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Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (55-24) meet the Denver Nuggets (47-33) Thursday at Ball Arena for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Grizzlies vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver can clinch a coveted 6-seed in the Western Conference playoffs and skip the play-in tourney with a win Thursday. The Nuggets failed to clinch Tuesday after getting blasted at home 116-97 by the San Antonio Spurs.

Memphis already locked up the 2-seed out West but had its seven-game win streak snapped Tuesday in a 125-119 overtime loss at the Utah Jazz as a 5.5-point road underdog.

The Grizzlies are 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus the Nuggets this season and the total is 1-2 Over/Under (O/U).

Grizzlies at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Grizzlies +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Nuggets -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread: Grizzlies +5.5 (-112) | Nuggets -5.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Grizzlies at Nuggets key injuries

Grizzlies

SG Dillon Brooks (hip) questionable
PG Ja Morant (knee) out

Nuggets

PF Jeff Green (personal reasons) questionable
PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

[tipico]

Grizzlies at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 122, Grizzlies 112

Money line

PASS even though Denver should win comfortably because the Nuggets (-230) are way too expensive considering the Grizzlies keep winning games regardless of who’s in their starting 5. Furthermore, Memphis is 10-9 SU as a road underdog, which makes Denver’s ML a no-go.

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Against the spread

BET the NUGGETS -5.5 (-108) for 1 unit because they have so much more motivation and the Grizzlies can’t exploit Denver’s weak backcourt since Memphis could be without both Brooks and Morant.

MVP-favorite C Nikola Jokic will also put the Nuggets on his back if need be and he’s balled out versus the Grizzlies this season. Jokic is averaging 27.7 points on 71.0% true shooting (.608/.400/.882), 9.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists with a plus-30 net rating in three games against Memphis this season.

This is a profitable price point for Denver who is 8-4 ATS as a 3-to-4.5-point favorite and the Nuggets have been hit by sharp line movement. Denver opened as a 2-point favorite and has been increased to the current number, which tells me the wiseguys see Denver’s motivation edge as well.

Finally, there may be some additional value on the NUGGETS -5.5 (-108) since they were just blown out at home by a shorthanded Spurs team and the Grizzlies are one of the feistier underdogs in the NBA this season.

Over/Under

PASS because this feels like a sharp total and my numbers align pretty closely with the market’s projected score.

For what it’s worth, I “lean” Over 232.5 (-110) because Denver is 44-34-2 O/U and 18-13-1 O/U as a home favorite while Memphis is 40-35-4 O/U and 10-7-2 O/U as a road underdog.

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