In a 12-round WBC flyweight title bout, Julio Cesar Martinez Aguilar and McWilliams Arroyo meet Friday at SNHU arena in Manchester, New Hampshire. The fight is expected to start at approximately 7 p.m. ET. Below, we break down the Martinez Aguilar vs. Arroyo odds and lines, with boxing picks and predictions.
These two fighters were supposed to meet in February, but the title defense for Martinez was scrapped due to a hand injury. Abraham Rodriguez stepped in on short notice and was pounded at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. with Arroyo winning via TKO. It was just the second time in seven fights that Arroyo didn’t go the distance.
Martinez Aguilar is ready this time around, and he puts his WBC strap on the line. While he didn’t fight in February, he returned to the ring June 26 for a tune-up fight against Joel Cordova at the Arena Alcalde in Guadalajara in his native Mexico. The 26-year-old, nicknamed “El Rey”, made quick work of Cordova, and he has back-to-back TKO wins, and three of his past four fights have finished inside the distance.
Martinez Aguilar vs. Arroyo odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:56 a.m. ET.
- Julio Cesar Martinez Aguilar: -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100) | McWilliams Arroyo: +570 (bet $100 to win $570)
- Total Rounds: 8.5 (Over: -130 | Under: -105)
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes: +140 | No: -200
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Martinez Aguilar (-1800) is a heavy favorite with an implied win probability of 94.74%. A $100 bet on the favorite would return of a profit of just $5.56 with a victory as a chalky wager.
Martinez Aguilar vs. Arroyo tale of the tape
Julio Cesar Martinez Aguilar (-1800)
Record: 18-1-0 (14 KOs)
Height: 5-foot-2
Reach: 64 inches
Stance: Orthodox
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McWilliams Arroyo (+650)
Record: 21-4-0 (16 KOs)
Height: 5-foot-4
Reach: 64 inches
Stance: Orthodox
Martinez Aguilar vs. Arroyo predictions and picks
Arroyo (+570) was looking forward to this fight nine months ago but had to bide his time with an injury to Martinez Aguilar (-1400). The Mexican fighter had a tune-up in June, testing his injury, and defeating his opponent rather soundly.
Martinez Aguilar should be able to push past Arroyo for the victory, but you cannot risk so much up front for such a small return. Even on the 3-way line, there is just no value in taking JCMA as the fave.
Instead, look to the total rounds. Cesar Martinez has gone the distance five times in the past seven bouts, and Arroyo is going to make him work. As such, the best play on the board is OVER 8.5 ROUNDS (-130). For a little more risk, but added value, take YES (+140): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE. I think JCMA outpoints Arroyo here, and if you can find a Method of Victory – Cesar Martinez on points prop Friday, take that, too. It isn’t available at the time of publishing.
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