Fresno State at UNLV odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Fresno State at UNLV odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1, 1-0 Mountain West) and UNLV Rebels (3-0, 0-0) will lock horns and match wits in Saturday Mountain West Conference action in Las Vegas. Kick time at Allegiant Stadium will be 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around Fresno State vs. UNLV odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Fresno State defeated New Mexico 38-21 last week, marking the Bulldogs’ 3rd straight win since opening with a loss at current-No. 12 Michigan. FSU was outgained by more than 100 yards in the win over the Lobos. The Bulldogs were a plus-2 in turnovers, and UNM was tagged with 17 penalties.

UNLV is No. 23 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Rebels have been solid in the ground game, averaging 293.3 rushing yards per game. On defense, Nevada-Las Vegas has allowed just 41 points in 3 games. The Rebels head into this contest off a bye week.

US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Fresno State at UNLV odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Fresno State +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | UNLV -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Fresno State +2.5 (-110) | UNLV -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Fresno State at UNLV picks and predictions

Prediction

Fresno State 31, UNLV 24

Moneyline

Fresno (+110) is the lean, but the 2.5 points makes the ATS action a better value. PASS.

Against the spread

Nevada-Las Vegas has not beaten Fresno State since 2017; the Bulldogs have won 6 straight since.

UNLV starting QB Matthew Sluka left the program over an NIL dispute, and several other UNLV players have indicated a desire to redshirt with the thought of transferring. So, the Rebels — who now insert former FCS Campbell signal-caller Hajj-Malik Williams at QB — are dealing with some off-the-field havoc here in Week 5. Williams may actually improve the UNLV passing game, but Sluka exits as the Rebels’ leading rusher.

Fresno State’s offense can sling it around. The Bulldogs’ 272.2 yards per game rank 36th in FBS. And FSU is likely facing a Las Vegas defense that is worse against the pass than what shows in surface numbers. And overall, the UNLV defense has its numbers pumped up a bit by 2 games in which UNLV allowed fewer than 60 snaps. Look for FSU to stay on schedule with its aerial game.

The Rebels have a Sept. 13 win at Kansas that, while an impressive performance in general, does not really hold up to advanced-stats scrutiny. The Jayhawks were undone by 90 yards in penalties and a minus-2 in turnovers.

Peg UNLV as being over-bet in this spot. BACK FRESNO STATE +2.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Last year’s meeting, a 31-24 FSU triumph, edged the Under 55.5, breaking a 4-year Over streak for the series.

Expect some game-flow point spiral here. UNLV’s passing attack could well get an uptick from the unexpected change at quarterback. The Bulldogs have logged some shaky 3rd-and-4th-down numbers that don’t jibe with early-down proficiency.

Red-zone trips will loom large, but the Over is the value side of this contest. FanDuel Sportsbook has more of a leverage tag here: BET OVER 49.5 (-115).

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Could Matthew Sluka come to Notre Dame?

Could the disgruntled UNLV signal caller come to Notre Dame?

University of Nevada Las Vegas quarterback Matthew Sluka wants out after an allegedly promised NIL deal seems to have gone sour.

Could he end up in South Bend, playing for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish?

Sluka is sitting out after he says he didn’t receive a potential name, image and likeness (NIL) payment. The whole story is fascinating and provides insight into how NIL and the transfer portal have changed college football.

It’s worth reading about, but it has us wondering — if Sluka were to leave a competitive Running Rebels team, could he play for the Fighting Irish?

 

To be clear, we’re speculating, not reporting. Sluka has left the team because he believes he was owed money in a promised NIL deal from UNLV coaches. The school claims Sluka’s agent made demands it saw as potential violations of NCAA rules.

There’s no sign yet of Sluka’s future moves and no indication he’s heading to the Irish. Still, it’s fun to think about since current Fighting Irish starting quarterback Riley Leonard is a senior and will be leaving South Bend at season’s end. Leonard, like Sam Hartman before him, came to the Irish via the transfer portal. Sluka has a year of eligibility left now that he’s taken his redshirt year.

If Sluka enters the portal, a lot of teams will want his services. That very well might include the Irish.

Contact/Follow us @IrishWireND on X (Formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Notre Dame news, notes, and opinions.

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UNLV QB Matthew Sluka bolts Rebels among NIL questions

UNLV QB Matthew Sluka is leaving his 3-0 team to redshirt

There was a long time when financial issues and conflicts were limited to professional players NIL changed all that. The latest and most striking example is UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka’s decision to redshirt and transfer after the team’s 3-0 start.

Why Sluka is bailing on the Rebels seems to be tied to UNLV failing to deliver on promises made when the quarterback decide to transfer from Holy Cross, where he played four seasons.

B

Sluka’s stats aren’t stunning. He completed 21 of 48 passes for 318 yards and six touchdowns with one interception this season. The senior rushed 39 times for 286 yards and a score as UNLV is 3-0 for the first time since 1984.

Former Wisconsin CB at center of controversy surrounding UNLV QB Matthew Sluka’s transfer decision

Former Wisconsin CB at center of controversy surrounding UNLV QB Matt Sluka

A former Wisconsin Badgers cornerback is at the center of the story currently dominating the college football landscape and the entire sporting world.

That story: UNLV starting quarterback Matthew Sluka announced Wednesday morning that he would be sitting out the remainder of the 2024 season after disagreements over his NIL compensation.

His decision is noteworthy because UNLV is off to a 3-0 start and is currently ranked No. 23 in the latest US LBM Coaches Poll. The team was one of the favorites to become the Group of Five representative in the expanded College Football Playoff, at least as things stood before his decision. Sluka was 21 of 48 passing through three weeks for 318 yards, six touchdowns, one interception, 8.19 adjusted yards per attempt and 15.1 yards per completion. He also added 39 carries for 253 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

That is all shared to capture the gravity of his announcement. It is the most significant example of a successful player on a highly successful team exercising a redshirt due to unfulfilled NIL promises — as is how it is being portrayed.

That is where former Badgers cornerback Marcus Cromartie enters the equation. Cromartie, an agent with Equity Sports, is Sluka’s NIL representation. He spoke with ESPN’s Pete Thamel to share the following perspective on the situation:

In other words, according to Cromartie, Sluka agreed to transfer to UNLV under an agreement that has not been fulfilled, now multiple games into the 2024 season.

A representative with UNLV’s collective has since denied the $100,000 figure.

There is sure to be a lot more added to this story as the days, weeks and months pass. The situation is a significant shakeup to the nature of the collective-to-coach-to-player relationships in the current age of the sport.

But our focus is the Wisconsin connection to this story. Cromartie was a Wisconsin Badger for four years from 2009-2012, the last two as a starter. He finished his Wisconsin career with 39 games played, 113 total tackles, one tackle for loss, one interception, three pass deflections and one forced fumble.

Cromartie then went on to have long, and winding, NFL career after going undrafted during the 2013 NFL draft. That included stops with the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Montreal Alouettes (CFL).

He began work with Equity Sports in 2020, according to LinkedIn. He most recently received his MBA from Indiana University — Kelley School of Business in May, 2024.

This story is not only ongoing in that Sluka will now look to transfer elsewhere for a final season of eligibility in 2024, and in that UNLV needs a new quarterback. It may get the ball rolling toward a new organized structure for NIL, or at least an advancement past the current model.

More clarity surrounding the situation is sure to follow as more context is added to the story.

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Matthew Sluka redshirting at UNLV over lack of NIL payment

UNLV has not honored an NIL payment to starting quarterback Matthew Sluka, who now plans to redshirt after the team’s 3-0 start.

UNLV starting quarterback Matthew Sluka took to social media on Tuesday evening to announce he is redshirting the rest of the 2024 season.

“I have decided to utilize my redshirt year and will not be playing in any additional games this season,” Sluka wrote in his post. “I committed to UNLV based on certain representations that were made to me, which were not upheld after I enrolled. Despite discussions, it became clear that these commitments would not be fulfilled in the future.”

Marcus Cromartie of Equity Sports, who represents Sluka, told ESPN Sluka was promised a minimum of $100,000 by a UNLV assistant coach to transfer, and that none of that money was paid. Cromartie says no effort was made by UNLV’s collective to formalize a contract once Sluka arrived on campus, and that all he has received to date is a $3,000 relocation stipend.

Sluka’s decision was the talk of the SEC coaches teleconference on Wednesday, with both Brian Kelly of LSU and Kirby Smart at Georgia advocating for revenue sharing to help alleviate issues like this one.

“The NIL, because it becomes a third-party piece, you lose control,” Kelly said. “And that’s why the revenue sharing piece is so important and getting that legislation passed now puts that back through the universities. And now those contracts can be written a lot differently. When you’re dealing with a third party and collectives and NILs, the universities are at arms length.”

“Unless there’s a set contract where Person A has to stay a certain amount of time or they’re going to have to pay back this contract, we’re never going to get to where we want to get to,” Smart added. “There’s probably going to be more and more of this going on, especially as the year goes on, November, December. Athletic departments are going to struggle to be able to make their commitments come to fruition and I think we’re going to see some really tough times in college football when all this is said and done.”

For UNLV, losing Sluka when the program is not only competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but in the midst of a tug-of-war between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West, is a disaster timing wise.

The Rebels will call on backup Hajj-Malik Williams to step into the starting role. Williams has yet to attempt a pass this year, but the five year vet from Campbell has rushed 10 times for 88 yards and has a history as a dual-threat quarterback.