Big Ten update: Maryland enters the Big Ten danger zone

More on Maryland

The Big Ten basketball season enters its final month this Saturday. February 15 puts the Big Ten season a month away from March 15, which happens to be Selection Sunday. If we haven’t arrived at the home stretch, I’d say we’re no more than 10 days away from it. Every game becomes magnified, every result becomes a big discussion point. How will it all unfold?

In the midst of this large-scale drama, the Big Ten’s biggest story over the next few weeks will focus on the race involving Maryland, Michigan State, and Penn State for the conference’s regular-season title. Maryland and Michigan State play twice in these upcoming weeks, something we noted in another recent article here at Badgers Wire. That is one story. A story connected to that reality is that Maryland is now entering the teeth of the Big Ten schedule.

Maryland was roughed up at Iowa and then beaten by the Wisconsin Badgers in the first half of January. The Terrapins have regrouped quite well, winning their next seven games. Yet, let’s not throw a parade for the Terps just yet. They played four home games in that seven-game stretch. One of their three road games was at Northwestern. Being brutally honest, Maryland should have won all five of those games, and it did. The two especially impressive wins for Maryland in its 7-0 run were at Indiana and Illinois. Yet, even then, the Hoosiers and Illini have fallen on very hard times of late. Maryland did a great job to win in the two Assembly Halls — one in Bloomington, one in Champaign — but it cannot be completely ignored that the Terps caught both opponents in the midst of bad downturns.

The next few weeks figure to be a lot more challenging for Mark Turgeon’s team.

Look at the next six games for Maryland: Four are on the road. None of those road trips are to Nebraska or Northwestern. Maryland gets two games at home, with Michigan State being one of the two. Only Northwestern at home in the next six games is a layup for Maryland. The other five games figure to be dogfights.

Here is the bind for the Terps: A 4-2 record in these next six games would be a very solid result for Turgeon. Yet, at the top of the Big Ten standings, losing twice would open the door for Penn State or Michigan State to move up the board, especially if Michigan State can at least split those two games with Maryland and handle its business in other games. Penn State already beat Maryland and, with two losses from the Terrapins, move closer to the No. 1 seed at the Big Ten Tournament.

If Maryland can go 5-1 in these next six games, it will probably win the Big Ten. If it goes 4-2, it’s anybody’s ballgame. In many ways, the Terps need to avoid going 3-3. If they can merely do that, they will exhibit staying power… and increase the odds they can do something in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten update: Michigan State, Maryland wins set up huge showdown

Michigan State and Maryland meet Saturday

It was a dramatic night in Big Ten basketball on Tuesday. While many Americans were focusing on numerical totals in New Hampshire, Maryland and Michigan State scored narrow wins on the hardwood. The Terrapins beat Nebraska by two, and Michigan State defeated Illinois by one on the road. These two results put Maryland at the top of the Big Ten, with Penn State in second and Michigan State close behind in third.

Guess which two teams meet this Saturday in East Lansing? Yup. The Terps and Spartans will duel for positioning in the top tier of the Big Ten with Penn State, as the race for the regular-season championship heads for the home stretch.

The Illinois run is over… not just because the Illini have lost consecutive home games, but because star Ayo Dosunmu got injured. He is certain to miss some time. How much is less certain. Nevertheless, that’s enough to write off Illinois for the Big Ten title. The Illini are still likely to make the NCAA Tournament, but the conference race is now very different.

What adds to the drama surrounding Michigan State and Maryland is that this upcoming Saturday’s game in East Lansing is merely the first of two between the schools in the next month. The reunion in College Park will be on Saturday, Feb. 29 (yes, this is a leap year!).

Penn State owns victories over both Maryland and Michigan State, so the Nittany Lions would probably prefer a split in these two upcoming games between the Terps and Spartans. Penn State is the foremost remaining example of a non-traditional Big Ten basketball school having a chance to win the regular season league title and shock the nation. Rutgers fell off the pace due to its inability to win road games in the conference. Yet, for all the talk (warranted, but possibly overplayed) about the Big Ten being turned upside-down this season, the final weeks of conference play will be largely defined by two schools with significant basketball histories and traditions: Maryland and Michigan State.

Tuesday’s results were merely a prelude for Saturday’s huge game and the other showdowns still to come in the conference’s regular-season schedule.

Wisconsin’s win over Maryland carries an important reminder

A teaching moment after the Badgers beat Maryland

You might get tired of reading the same — or at least, similar — themes in the coverage of the Wisconsin Badgers’ basketball season. Yet, if you have ever taken a class in sports journalism, you know that this business involves saying the same things over the course of a season. The trick in this profession is to try to use fresh language or an original perspective (if not both) in the attempt to convey familiar themes and describe enduring realities in a team’s journey from November to March (or in football, late August to early January).

One theme we have repeated a lot at Badgers Wire in recent weeks is the penchant for Wisconsin to have only two double-figure scorers per game, and for the need to create at least three double-figure scorers per game. We hit on this after the Illinois loss. We noted that Wisconsin did generate three double-figure scorers against Penn State, but that the second- and third-leading scorers had just 11 and 10 points.

Guess what? Against Maryland, Wisconsin once again produced three double-figure scorers, but this time, the second- and third-leading scorers both had 14 points. Three scorers posted at least 14 on the board for the Badgers. That is better than what we have seen in the Badgers’ previous 16 games, adjusted to the level of competition. (In other words, we’re not focused on cupcake games, just the formidable opponents.)

The point being made here is not just about the need to have more players contributing, which everyone can readily understand. The more precise lesson to take away from the Maryland win is that with three effective offensive threats, not two, it was harder for the Terrapins and coach Mark Turgeon to defend the Badgers at the very end.

Who was going to get the ball for Wisconsin? Brad Davison would up taking and making the winning shot, but Nate Reuvers had to be considered. From more options come more problems for the opposition. From more diversity comes more leverage in late-game situations.

I promise not to harp on this theme more than necessary, but on a team without a dominant “takeover” player — a cutthroat superstar who stops everyone else and says, “This is MY game; climb aboard!” — Wisconsin needs more diverse scoring production.

The next frontier: four double-figure scorers per game. Let’s see if the Badgers can get there. They will be even tougher to defend late in games.

Three Maryland players Badger fans need to know

Wisconsin plays hosts to the No. 17 Maryland Terrapins on Tuesday evening. Badger fans should be sure to know these three opposing players.

After picking up a critical road win against the No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions over the weekend, Wisconsin (10-6) will look to keep the momentum going tonight when it hosts No. 17 Maryland (13-3) at the Kohl Center.

The Badgers and Terrapins split their two meetings last year, with the former getting the last laugh in a 69-61 February victory in Madison.

Maryland started off this season hot by winning its first 10 contests before stumbling in consecutive away games at Penn State and Seton Hall last month. Since then, head coach Mark Turgeon’s squad has won three of its last four, though the Terps were blown out the last time they took the court in Iowa City, falling to the Hawkeyes 67-49.

You have to feel pretty good about Bucky’s chances in this one at home coming off of a huge victory, but it’s going to be a battle: Maryland has got some major star power on this roster, including two of the Big Ten’s best players.

With that being said, here are the three players on the other side who Badger fans should keep a close eye on throughout tonight’s contest.

Anthony Cowan Jr. – Guard

Current stats: 16.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 38.8 FG%, 34.4 3P%

A four-year starter at point guard for the Terrapins, Cowan is the heart and soul of this team.

The 6-0 senior from Bowie, Md. has enjoyed a prolific career in College Park and is in the midst of an excellent final season as a collegian. Cowan has looked like a potential All-American thus far, leading Maryland in points, assists and steals per game and ranking fifth in the Big Ten in the former two categories. He was recently named to the Wooden Award Midseason Top 25 list and should be a top contender for the Cousy Award, given to the nation’s top floor general.

Cowan averaged 17.5 points in his two games against the Badgers last year, though he shot a combined 26.8 percent from the field in doing so.

Jalen Smith – Forward

Current stats: 13.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 50.7 FG%, 36.7 3P%

Dec 19, 2019; Newark, NJ, USA; Maryland Terrapins forward Jalen Smith (25) drives to the basket against Seton Hall Pirates guard Myles Cale (22) and center Romaro Gill (35) during the first half at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

After being named to the Big Ten All-Freshman team a season ago, Smith has taken the next step and is playing like an all-conference level player and a potential first-round selection in this year’s NBA draft.

Yet another formidable big man the Badgers must go up against in a Big Ten slate chock-full of them, the former five-star recruit out of Baltimore has made his presence felt on both ends of the floor this season. Smith is Maryland’s No. 2 scorer and leads the team in both blocks and rebounds per game, ranking No. 3 and No. 5 in the Big Ten, respectively, in the latter two categories.

Aaron Wiggins – Guard

Current stats: 10.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 35.0 FG%, 28.7 3P%

After a nice freshman campaign coming off of the bench, Wiggins was considered a major breakout candidate with NBA draft pick-type potential leading into this season. However, the 6-6 guard has struggled a bit through Maryland’s first half.

Wiggins provides great value defensively and on the glass, but where the Terrapins really need him to step up if they are to reach their ceiling this year is as a shooter.

Granted, he is third on the team in points per game and has reached double figures in 10 of Maryland’s 16 outings, but his efficiency has taken a dive this year. His poor shooting from long range has been especially disappointing after he was one of the Big Ten’s top marksmen (41.3 percent) as a freshman.

Wiggins is probably Maryland’s X factor. He may have yet to hit his groove, but sometimes all it takes is one breakout performance for shooters like him to take off. If/when he does, the Terrapins will become significantly more dangerous than they already are. Perhaps that performance comes in Madison this evening.

Maryland reminds us that history offers no guarantees

Maryland basketball

The history and tradition of Nebraska football have meant nothing since January of 2002, when the Cornhuskers played — and lost to — Miami for the national championship.

The history and tradition of Maryland basketball have meant nothing since April of 2002, when the Terrapins played — and defeated — Indiana for their first national championship.

It is a fascinating and puzzling reality: Maryland rose to the top of college basketball and seemingly could do no wrong in the early spring of 2002.

Not only have the Terps not been back to the Final Four in any subsequent year; they haven’t even made the Elite Eight once. They have made two Sweet 16s. They have never been seeded higher than No. 4 in the NCAA Tournament. Even when Maryland reached the Sweet 16 in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, the Terrapins underachieved. They had the raw talent of a No. 2 or No. 1 seed, but didn’t mesh on the court. Kansas handled Maryland relatively easily in the Sweet 16, 79-63. A frustrating season came to an end.

Imagine being in the old Georgia Dome (a building which no longer exists) on that Monday night in 2002 when Maryland won the national title. Imagine having someone come up to you and say that the Terrapins would not make another Elite Eight or earn a top-three NCAA Tournament seed in the next 17 years. You would have told that person s/he was completely crazy and needed to get clinical help. Yet, here we are.

Maryland played in the 1974 ACC Tournament final, one of the best and most important college basketball games of all time. That game was a winner-take-all play-in game for the NCAA Tournament. The small size of the field at that time prevented “at-large” teams from representing Power Five conferences. The ACC sent only its tournament champion into the NCAA Tournament. Seeing how great Maryland played in a close loss to North Carolina State, the NCAA realized how dumb it was to deprive second-place teams in conferences of a tournament berth.

Eleven years after that 1974 ACC Tournament final, the NCAA Tournament had more than doubled in size to 64 teams. Maryland helped the NCAA Tournament become what it is today. Maryland owns a significant place in the evolution of America’s favorite bracketed basketball tournament.

After that seminal 1974 season, Maryland made several NCAA Tournament appearances under Lefty Driesell. The Terps were responsible for the tournament’s expanded size, and they used that expansion to become a regular part of March Madness. They earned top-three NCAA seeds on multiple occasions. Then, after a few down years in the late 1980s, Gary Williams came aboard in late 1989 and restored the program. Maryland made the NCAAs in 11 straight years, with 2002 being the zenith. Maryland was a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament in five of those 11 years. This program had arrived.

It is jarring how barren the trophy case has been since 2002. It is also a jolt to the senses to realize that Maryland hasn’t had a top-three seed since its national championship. Yet, another part of the story of Maryland’s failures this century is the struggle of head coach Mark Turgeon.

On paper, Turgeon has everything a coach could possibly want: He was coached by Larry Brown at Kansas. He made the Sweet 16 at Wichita State. He turned Texas A&M into a regular NCAA Tournament team. He ascended the ranks. He built toward a Cadillac job. His progression was unmistakable. Maryland was supposed to be the culmination of his career and the place where Turgeon cemented his college basketball legacy.

It has never worked out that way… and more precisely, it has never been especially close to becoming reality. This season, Maryland offers no indication that a return to glory is just around the corner.

If the second half of the 20th century suggested that Maryland would be a 21st-century force in college basketball, and that Wisconsin would be a non-factor in college hoops, history has offered a reminder in the first 20 years of the new century: It hardly offers guarantees. The course of human events can — and does — change sharply.

Maryland is just another Big Ten team (Wisconsin should beat)

Maryland-Wisconsin

College basketball polls mean very little. I don’t pay especially close attention to them, chiefly because — unlike football — basketball championships have no relationship to polls. Teams ranked No. 25 in the polls right before Selection Sunday have sometimes missed the NCAA Tournament. A relatively recent example: SMU in 2014.

If polls do have value, it is that they show when teams are overrated or undervalued at the start of a season. One of the foremost examples of a team which was overrated at the start of the 2019-2020 season is Maryland. The Terrapins were No. 7 in the preseason poll and rose to No. 3. Can someone please explain why? Maryland opened its season with five games which were either cupcakes or moderately challenging games against non-cupcake teams. The Terrapins beat a decent Temple team on Nov. 28, then handled Marquette by 21 on Dec. 1, their most complete performance of the season. They were taking care of business, but they had no high-end wins. Was it their fault that they moved up to No. 3? Of course not. Nevertheless, it was striking that Maryland was given elite status before it earned it.

Since Maryland moved to No. 3, two basic things have happened to the Terrapins:

  1. They have finally had to play true road games, as opposed to neutral-site games.
  2. They lost all three of those true road games: Seton Hall, Penn State, and most recently, at Iowa.

Wins over Illinois and Ohio State have Maryland on course to make the NCAA Tournament, but as far as 13-3 records go, this one is relatively thin. Bryant, Holy Cross, Fairfield, and George Mason are part of a lot of modest victories on the ledger sheet. Nothing has happened this season to suggest that the Terrapins are a top-tier team, and their latest game might be the most searing indictment of all.

Iowa did not have C.J. Fredrick in the lineup for this past Friday’s game against the Terps. Fredrick was out with a foot injury, which seemed to be a huge loss for the Hawkeyes, who greatly benefited from his 3-point shooting. Without perimeter help, Iowa star center Luka Garza was all alone in Iowa’s previous game, a bad loss to lowly Nebraska. Iowa hit just 4 of 33 threes with Fredrick out. Garza couldn’t carry the team himself. This was the vulnerable squad Maryland played on Friday. If Maryland was anything close to a top-10 team, it would have marched into Carver-Hawkeye Arena and thumped the Hawkeyes.

Final score: Iowa 67, Maryland 49. The Terps were AWOL on offense, hoisting bad shots and being outworked for position at every spot on the floor. The Hawkeyes got more 50-50 balls. They worked the ball to the basket. They ran Maryland ragged. The Terrapins are an NCAA Tournament team in a season when North Carolina will very likely miss the Big Dance and Purdue is in big trouble. That’s the good news for the Terps. However, they appear to be little more than an underwhelming No. 7-9 seed despite its lofty early-season rankings.

Maryland is just another Big Ten team. The good news is that Wisconsin can very easily outhustle and grind down the Terps. The bad news is that if Wisconsin becomes the first home team to lose to Maryland this season, the Badgers will have to wonder why they have suddenly lost their home-court edge. They will also lament their inability to pounce on vulnerable opponents.

Wisconsin should win this game. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. A certain degree of confidence should flow from that realization. However, the inability to seize this opportunity will reaffirm the uncomfortable themes of a noticeably unsteady season in Madison.

10 for 20: Maryland basketball

Maryland basketball in the 2020s

Reasonable people can disagree on this next point, and provide other equally valid answers to the question, but for me, no Big Ten program magnifies Wisconsin’s achievements in the 21st century more than the Maryland Terrapins.

Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State have generally been very successful this century, alongside Wisconsin. Those have been the four best programs in the conference this century. Purdue hasn’t made a Final Four, but the Boilermakers have been fairly consistent and made several Sweet 16s. Purdue isn’t failing to field a strong program; the Boilermakers simply haven’t reached their ultimate goal. There is a difference between those two realities. That is the five-team top tier of the Big Ten in the 21st century.

In the bottom tier of the Big Ten, we have Rutgers, Penn State, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Illinois, programs which have been dormant or close to it for large portions of the 2010s and the century at large. In the middle tier, we have Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland, programs which struggle with consistency. They occasionally poke their nose into the NCAA Tournament but don’t string together strong seasons for the most part.

In this middle tier of the Big Ten in the 21st century, Maryland and Indiana are the two programs which should be a lot better than they actually have been. Neither program has gotten past the Sweet 16 since the two schools played for the 2002 national championship in Atlanta. Why do I say that Maryland’s failures magnify Wisconsin’s achievements more than Indiana’s shortcomings? Indiana had its great coach, the man who would have returned IU to the top… but Kelvin Sampson ran afoul of the NCAA. With Maryland, the Terrapins have a coach who, on paper, SHOULD be thriving in the Big Ten, but he hasn’t.

The big question facing Maryland in the 2020s is if Mark Turgeon can finally live up to his promise and potential as a college basketball coach. Turgeon, on paper, has all the characteristics of a great coach in the making. He thrived at a mid-major program, Wichita State. He thrived at a football-school program in the Power Five, Texas A&M. He is a Larry Brown protege, coming from one of college basketball’s best coaching trees. He made the leap to a basketball school with a proud tradition near a fertile recruiting center, the Beltway corridor in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. Yet, Maryland has never truly taken off in eight seasons under Turgeon.

The Terps have been a top-four seed only once under Turgeon. They have made the Sweet 16 once. The standards established by Lefty Driesell and then Gary Williams have not been matched by Turgeon — not even close. Moreover, with Maryland losing a pair of games in recent weeks and needing a huge rally to survive Illinois at home, it seems the Terrapins are once again in line to fall short of massive preseason expectations.

When Maryland was a No. 5 seed in 2016, the Terrapins were ranked as high as No. 2 in the Associated Press poll. The No. 4 seed in 2015 was ranked as high as No. 8 in the polls. This 2019-2020 team was as high as No. 3. It just doesn’t seem to be happening for Turgeon, and so as the 2020s arrive, one has to wonder if Maryland will eventually put all the pieces together. I’m not referring to a Final Four berth — not primarily. I am referring to the ability of Maryland to regularly be a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament and collect a large number of Sweet 16s. That is where the Terps should be. From that volume of Sweet 16s and high seeds should come a Final Four at some point, but first, Mark Turgeon needs to cultivate that level of consistency in College Park.