Marlins Reds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (46-52) and Cincinnati Reds (38-59) put a lid on their 4-game series at Great American Ball Park with a Thursday matinee. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

Miami is 10-5 in its last 15 road games. The Marlins own a 2.72 ERA over their last 8 games away from South Beach.

The Reds are 8-2 with a .775 OPS across their last 10 games at home. Cincinnati batters have struck out 27 times over their last 2 games.

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Marlins at Reds projected starters

LHP Daniel Castano vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft

Castano (1-3, 3.86 ERA) has appeared in 9 games this season and made 6 starts. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 35 IP.

Is a 27-year-old in his 3rd big league season who has tossed 34 innings for AAA-Jacksonville in addition to his MLB action. Last pitched in the Majors July 12.
Pitches to contact and has done well to avoid hard contact. His hard-contact rate on balls in play (20.7%) is well below league average.

Ashcraft (4-2, 4.70 ERA) has made 11 starts this season. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 59 1/3 IP.

Is a 24-year-old rookie who has thus far struggled against right-handed bats (.935 OPS allowed). The Miami lineup skews to right-handed batters more than the average MLB club.
Threw a season-high 112 pitches in his last start Friday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.

Marlins at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Marlins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Marlins 4

Money line

Cincinnati pitching went through a sneaky solid stretch when they logged a team 3.29 ERA from July 3-12, and its bullpen has carried some hidden upside value.

However, there is likely some regression likely to come due to the team’s relief corps overall 5.17 ERA — but you can still TAKE CINCINNATI (-140) in this series finale.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is some upside to Ashcraft’s line, but peg an iffy Cincinnati relief corps as being heavily involved in this one and too risky to trust to pull off the victory by a multiple-run cushion.

Over/Under

Mixed signals here — some are favoring a high total and some are leaning toward pitching and defense. STEER CLEAR.

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Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (46-51) and Cincinnati Reds (37-59) meet for the 3rd game of their 4-game series at Great American Ball Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: tied 1-1.

Miami edged out Cincinnati 2-1 Tuesday to tie the season series. The Marlins are 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Over that stretch, Miami hurlers have compiled a 2.89 ERA.

The Reds continue a home stand that opened last weekend with a 2-1 series win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last 9 home games.

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Marlins at Reds projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Garrett (2-3, 3.42 ERA) has made 9 starts this season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 47 1/3 IP.

Owns a 1.80 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over his last 4 starts.
Has notched a 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 89 career IP.

Castillo (3-4, 2.77 ERA) has authored a 1.08 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 78 IP over 13 starts.

Making his first start of the second half.
Has clocked a nifty 2.20 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 1.00 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last 4 turns.
Dominates right-handed batters (.545 OPS allowed) and is facing a Miami club that generates a much-higher-than-average 78% of its plate appearances against righties from bats on the same side.

Marlins at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Reds -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Marlins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Marlins 3

Money line

Cincinnati’s pitching went through a sneaky solid stretch in early July (3.29 ERA from July 3-12) and the Reds bullpen carries some hidden upside value. The back end of that ‘pen is in better shape than Miami’s heading into the 3rd game of this series.

Garrett’s last 4 starts have included 3 against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, both of which have bottom-feeder offenses.

However, the play here is a PASS unless you get Cincinnati at -145 or better.

Run line/Against the spread

REDS -1.5 (+140) has the best value for this matchup.

Over/Under

Both starters have been missing bats and avoiding hard contact of late. However, the total would need to rise back to its earlier number of 8.5 and the Under would have some value at -120 or better on a warm, humid evening with an outward breeze at homer-happy Great American Ball Park.

PASS, but consider a line watch throughout the day.

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Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (45-51) and Cincinnati Reds (37-58) clash Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET to continue a 4-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 1-0 after Monday’s 11-2 win. Cincinnati won 5 of 7 from Miami in 2021.

Miami scuffled at the tail end of the first half, but the Fish have been just fine of late on the road. Even with Monday’s setback, they are 9-4 in their last 13 road games.

The Reds continue a home stand that opened last weekend with a 2-1 series win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. With Monday’s victory, Cincinnati is 7-1 in its last 8 home games.

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Marlins at Reds projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Lopez (6-5, 3.14 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start of the season. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 109 IP.

Toted a 1.83 into June, but has registered a 4.86 ERA since. Road starts (5.54 ERA last 26 IP) have been a problem in that stretch.
Allowed 5 R, 5 H, 3 BB and 6 K in 5 IP in losing his first 2nd-half start July 21 vs. the Texas Rangers.

Greene (3-11, 5.78 ERA) has a 1.35 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 90 1/3 IP in 18 starts.

First start of 2nd half. Lost last start July 15 vs. St. Louis with 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB and 6 K.
Owns a Boeing 7.12 ERA in his last 30 1/3 IP.

Marlins at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:33 p.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins -112 (bet $100 to win $112) | Reds -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Marlins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Marlins 4

Money line

Cincy pitching went through a sneaky solid stretch in early July (3.29 ERA July 3-12) and the Reds bullpen carries some hidden upside value.

López is up against a Cincinnati club that had posted an .812 OPS over its 5 home games prior to Monday’s 11-run outburst.

TAKE CINCINNATI (-108).

Run line/Against the spread

REDS +1.5 (-175) is the lean. But the profit margin is razor thin. Bettors wanting some plus-1 insurance may want to mix this action in with the above ML play.

Over/Under

Mixed signals here — some favoring a high total and some leaning toward pitching and defense. It all spells a PASS.

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Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (45-50) and Cincinnati Reds (36-58) meet Monday at 6:40 p.m. ET to crank up a 4-game series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First game. Cincinnati won 5 of 7 from Miami in 2021.

The Marlins opened their second half by taking 2 of 3 at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Miami scuffled at the tail end of the first half, but the Fish have been just fine of late on the road. They are 9-3 over their last 12 games abroad.

The Reds continue a home stand that opened last weekend with the club taking 2 of 3 from the St. Louis Cardinals. Cincinnati is 6-1 in its last 7 home games.

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Marlins at Reds projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. LHP Nick Lodolo

Rogers (4-9, 5.46 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start of the season. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 84 IP.

Logged his 2nd walk-less game of the season July 17, but was dinged for 4 R in 6 IP versus the Philadelphia Phillies.
Facing a Reds team that has posted a mere .656 OPS on the road, but has been productive at home (.740 OPS).

Lodolo (2-3, 5.81 ERA) owns a 1.78 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 13.0 K/9 through 26 1/3 IP in 6 starts.

Has been hurt by a .435 batting average on balls in play.
Coughed up 5R in 2 IP in his last start (July 16 vs. St. Louis).

Marlins at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 9:49 p.m. ET.

Money line: Marlins +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Reds -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Marlins at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Marlins 3

Money line

The battle of port-siders favors the Reds who are swung around to the best side of their platoon numbers. (Miami’s splits favor games against right-handers.)

Cincy pitching went through a sneaky solid stretch in early July (3.29 ERA July 3-12) and the Reds bullpen carries some hidden upside value.

TAKE CINCINNATI (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: The juice here cuts into any potential value on the Reds side.

Over/Under

The starters have expected-ERA figures better than their surface lines. The same applies to both pens.

There is strong VALUE ON THE UNDER 9.5 (-122).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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