The Seattle Mariners (11-8) start a 3-game interleague series with the Miami Marlins (10-8) Friday at loanDepot park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The game is the first between the teams since the 2017 season and only the 16th meeting. Seattle leads the all-time series 8-7.
Seattle has won 7 of its last 10 games, but lost back-to-back games and its 3-game series at the Tampa Bay Rays.
Miami is on a 5-game winning streak, which includes a 2-1 series victory at the Atlanta Braves and a 3-game sweep of the Nationals in Washington.
Mariners at Marlins projected starters
RHP Matt Brash vs. RHP Elieser Hernandez
Brash (1-1, 4.20 ERA) earned a no-decision Saturday in Seattle’s 13-7 victory over the Kansas City Royals. He went 4 1/3 IP, allowing 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 2 K.
Hernandez (1-1, 5.87 ERA) got a no-decision Saturday in Miami’s 9-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves, throwing 4 2/3 IP with 5 ER on 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
Mariners at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:01 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Marlins -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Mariners at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Mariners 2
Money line
GIMME the MARLINS (-103) because they just won 5 of their 6-game road swing and return home where Miami and its starter is much more comfortable.
Hernandez’s career home winning percentage (43.8%), ERA (3.60) and WHIP (1.15) are much better than his road marks of a 12.5% winning rate, 6.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Also, loanDepot park is one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in the majors.
Brash is in his rookie season and at the end of Seattle’s rotation. He looked good in his major league debut versus the Chicago White Sox, but has shown command issues since.
Miami’s lineup has been productive and patient to start the year, ranking sixth in BB% (10.1%), 12th in wRC+ (108, MLB average: 100), and eighth in barrel rate (8.8%), according to FanGraphs.
Lastly, according to VegasInsider.com, there’s reverse line movement headed toward Miami in the betting market. Most of the action is on the Mariners (-117) but the house reduced Seattle’s ML price from -130 on the opener. It’s a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular sides cheaper.
The MARLINS (-103) is my favorite wager in this game.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” toward Miami’s alternate RL because it’s a chunky payout.
However, the Marlins are 17-22 RL as home favorites since the beginning of last season whereas the Mariners are an exceptional 48-27 RL as road underdogs over that span.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-122) because of Miami’s pitcher-friendly ballpark, the weather forecast that is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing in from left-centervfield and that this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market for the total.
Roughly 70% of the cash is on the Under, hence it is more expensive, but more than 60% of the bets placed are on the Over. It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-122) because both starters are back-of-the-rotation guys and both lineups have been solid to start 2022.
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