12 Power Five coaches who need a strong start to the 2023 season to avoid the hot seat

These coaches could be looking for new jobs next year if they don’t turn things around quickly.

It seems a bit silly to even mention the phrase “hot seat” when we still haven’t even kicked off a ball in the 2023 season.

But this is modern college football. The sport has become dominated by both massive coaching contracts and, in turn, an expectation for quick success.

Gone are the days when coaches were given years at a time to program-build. The transfer portal allows for much quicker roster transitions than were previously possible, and NIL provides a more even playing field — in theory, at least.

But Power Five schools aren’t just becoming more impatient in terms of how long they’re willing to extend the benefit of the doubt to their coaches. They’re also becoming increasingly more likely to make changes mid-campaign, often even before November.

In 2022, seven Power Five coaches were fired before the start of the final month of the season. Three of those didn’t even make it to October.

That’s a trend we will almost certainly see continue in 2023. With that in mind, here are 12 Power Five coaches who absolutely must start the season on a high note to avoid the hot seat.

Some of these are new coaches still looking to prove themselves, while others are longer-tenured and hoping to recapture past success that has since faded. But the uniting thread between them all is that they could be searching for new jobs next year if they don’t turn things around quickly.

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Countdown to Kickoff: 5 head coaches with the most pressure to win in 2023

The countdown to kickoff continues with five FBS head coaches who need a winning season this fall.

Few jobs in sports are more challenging than being the head coach of a college football program. In a volatile industry where so much can change in a matter of months, college football coaches are constantly under pressure to win, no matter the circumstances.

For some programs, a period of struggle is acceptable. For others, any sign of struggle is an immediate cause for concern and could put a head coach’s job on notice. Since the beginning of last season, 16 FBS head coaches have been fired, 15 of them due to a lack of success. Entering this fall, there are another 10-15 head coaches across the country whose jobs could be in jeopardy if their programs once again struggle. 

With five days remaining in the countdown to kickoff, College Sports Wire looks at five head coaches in college football who are facing the most pressure to win this season. 

A pair of head coaches that could’ve made the list but ultimately didn’t were Michigan State’s Mel Tucker and Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher. Large contract buyouts could play into both coaches’ favors this offseason, even if their programs face some struggles.

Former Ducks OL Ryan Walk takes coaching job under Mario Cristobal at Miami

Former Oregon OL Ryan Walk has found a start to his coaching career, working with Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes.

One of the most glaring differences Oregon Ducks fans will notice from 2022 to 2023 is along the offensive line. Four of the five starters from last season have moved on from Oregon. Some, like Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, Alex Forsyth, and TJ Bass are currently undertaking NFL training camp, while others are taking on other ventures.

One of those players is Ryan Walk, a former guard for the Ducks, who was named an honorable mention on the 2022 All-Pac-12 team as voted by the coaches. Despite not realizing any NFL dreams after graduation, the former walk-on from Sheldon High School wasted no time making an exciting career transition. According to his bio on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Walk is now an assistant offensive line coach at the University of Miami.

In his senior season, Walk started all but one game — missing it due to injury — and was a major part of the Ducks’ offensive line that ended up as one of the best pass-blocking units in the country. Walk was a walk-on to the team in 2017, redshirted that season, played five games each in 2018 and 2019, and became a starter after that.

During every season but his senior year, Walk was coached by Mario Cristobal, who, after parting ways with Oregon football in 2021, became the head coach of the Miami Hurricanes.

As Cristobal looks to restore Miami to the glory they saw in the early 2000s, offensive prowess will be essential, and to have a prolific offense, solidity on the offensive line is nearly a necessity. That, in addition to the fact that Cristobal is a former offensive tackle, means that strong blocking will likely be a focus for the Hurricanes, and the role of an OL coach like Walk will be paramount.

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Oregon’s program-leading 2019 recruiting class drops in Athletic re-rank

Oregon’s 2019 is the highest-rated in school history, finishing 7th in the nation. In a hindsight review, that ranking changed a bit.

After a few months of painstaking recruiting being done by schools nationwidethe Oregon Ducks find their 2024 class ranked 8th by 247Sports. Some of Oregon’s top verbal commitments include QB Michael Van Buren, S Aaron Flowers, and CB Ify Obidegwu. If all these commitments hold, and the Ducks bring in a few more blue chips, this class could stand out as one of Oregon’s best ever.

Currently, the title of best ever belongs to the 2019 Oregon class, which ranked 7th in the nation when all was said and done, the highest mark Oregon has ever received. It featured players like Kayvon Thibodeaux — the top-rated recruit in program history — alongside Mykael Wright, Mase Funa, and Brandon Dorlus.

As they have every year, The Athletic looked back at the 2019 classes with four years of hindsight and re-ranked them based on how they panned out. Using accolades accrued in college, eventual place in the NFL Draft, and overall production with the team, they are able to get a hindsight look at who actually had the best recruiting class for each year based on how things panned out on the field.

Oregon’s historic No. 7 fell to No. 15 in the Athletic’s new ranking.

Max Olson, the article’s author, had this to say:

“On signing day, this was the highest-rated recruiting class in Oregon history. Mario Cristobal and the Ducks won a big-time battle for Thibodeaux, the No. 2 overall recruit, and brought in 14 four-star signees. They won big with these guys with a top-five finish and Rose Bowl victory in 2019, a Pac-12 title in 2020 and a return trip to the Pac-12 title game in 2021. Thibodeaux lived up to the hype as a unanimous All-American and No. 5 draft pick, and Dorlus and Wright joined him in becoming first-team All-Pac-12 standouts. But almost half of the members of this signing class did end up entering the transfer portal.”

As Olson said, Thibodeaux was the biggest win of 2019 for the Ducks. He remains the highest-rated recruit in school history, was one of the highest Oregon draft picks ever, and played well in his rookie season for the New York Giants.

Olson also mentioned that more than half of the Ducks 2019 class ended up in the transfer portal after playing part of their college career with Oregon. Of course, that has become more common in the world of college football, especially when you experience a coaching change like Oregon did with Cristobal leaving for Miami. Some notable names in that group including WR Mycah Pittman and RB Sean Dollars, both of whom departed this offseason.

Something that interests me that isn’t mentioned in Olson’s writeup is how many of Oregon’s 3-star recruits ended up blossoming into quality players. S Trikweze Bridges, DE Brandon Dorlus, LB Jamal Hill, and K Camden Lewis all were rated as 3-star players by 247Sports, but have become key starters for the current Oregon team.

When looking back at what was considered the best Ducks’ class ever at the time, we’re reminded that it is impossible to predict how these things will work themselves out. Getting commitments from top-tier recruits is obviously exciting — and it should be — but only time will tell if the Ducks of 2024 will reign supreme.

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Recruiting Superlatives: Highlighting Oregon’s most notable recruits over last 5 years

Who is the most influential Oregon recruit in the last 5 years? What about the biggest recruit to get away? We give some Duck recruiting superlatives.

On Monday morning, Bruce Feldman and The Athletic put out an article in their series of recruiting breakdowns looking at some of the top teams in the nation over the past couple of decades and offering superlatives for some of the most notable recruits to come through the program.

In the article (subscription required) they talked about Joey Harrington and De’Anthony Thomas as two of the most important recruits in program history, and identified Justin Herbert as the biggest developmental project, rising from an overlooked 3-star into the No. 6 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

I’m not going to bite into Feldman’s writing; it’s very good and deserves your attention. However, it did get me thinking about some superlatives that could be handed out for a more current group of recruits. While Feldman looked as far back as 2000 to identify some top players, I wanted to dial in the microscope a little bit and come of with some superlatives of my own.

For this exercise, I go back five years ago to the 2018 recruiting class, and started from there up to the last class that was signed in 2023. I also threw in a few “future superlatives” for good measure, highlighting a few of the recruits in 2023 and 2024 who I think will have major impacts down the road.

Without further ado, here are my superlatives for the Oregon Ducks recruiting over the past five years:

‘We’ve got one mission;’ A’lique Terry says Dan Lanning’s championship drive is second to none

Offensive line coach A’lique Terry has served under Mario Cristobal and Dan Lanning and he is all in with his current boss.

Offensive line coach A’lique Terry isn’t exactly a newcomer to the Oregon Ducks football program. But he is a newcomer to this version of the Ducks’ football program.

It’s not often that an assistant coach sees two completely different programs at the same institution. Terry had spent some time in Eugene as a graduate assistant when Mario Cristobal was the Ducks’ head coach, before going on to coach at the University of Hawaii and serve a short stint working with the defensive line for the Minnesota Vikings.

Now Terry is back in Eugene and he sees a difference with Dan Lanning at the helm.

“He’s like a maniac, but in a great way,” Terry said on Thursday. “He loves everything Oregon football, anything possible to get us a national championship. That’s what his aim is. And if you’re not somebody who’s along with that you may say that our coach is wild. No, Coach is locked in on one mission, one goal and if you’re not locked in with that, please step out of the way.”

Ever since coming to Eugene following his national championship as the defensive coordinator for the Georgia Bulldogs, Dan Lanning has been working hard to get back to that peak. There is a sense in Eugene that the Ducks are on the right trajectory to get there with Lanning at the helm.

“We’ve got one mission, one goal,” Terry said. “He’s going every single day. He’s consistent with that. There’s no wavering. There’s no roller coaster in him. Coach is a rocket. We’re going to the top.”

Going to the top was the No. 1 reason why Lanning was hired in the first place. That drive and desire definitely have a ringing endorsement from Terry.

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Will Dan Lanning follow in past Oregon coaches’ footsteps with Year 2 success?

Dan Lanning is one of 5 Oregon coaches to win 10 games, and just the 3rd to do so in Year 1. Will Year 2 be just as impressive?

By almost any measure, Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning had a very successful first year in Eugene last season. He became just the fifth coach in Oregon history to notch 10 wins, and the third to do so in his first season with the team.

While there are certainly things that could have gone better — losing to rivals Oregon State and Washington in the same year is never something you want — it’s clear that Oregon fans should be encouraged and excited about what’s to come for the Ducks. Lanning has proved that he has an elite football mind, and his recruiting prowess has continued what Mario Cristobal started in Eugene, bringing some of the best players in the nation to the pacific northwest.

The question going forward will be to see how high the ceiling is in the future.

If you look back through the Oregon record books, Duck coaches have seen some great success in year two with the program. Both Chip Kelly and Mark Helfrich made it to the national championship game, while Mario Cristobal won a Rose Bowl. So how will Dan Lanning’s second season with the Ducks stack up compared to his predecessors? It’s impossible to say, but he’s on a great trajectory at the very least.

In order to get a good breakdown, I went back through what I like to refer to as the “modern era” of Oregon coaches. While the Ducks have been around since 1894, a total of 39 head coaches came through the program, oftentimes only spending one or two seasons in Eugene. Until the legendary Len Casanova came along in 1951, no single coach had spent more than 5 seasons with the program. So that’s going to be where I start our modern era. Since 1951, there have been only 11 head coaches at Oregon.

So how did those coaches fare in their second year with the program? Let’s take a look:

Comparing Dan Lanning’s first recruiting class to past Oregon head coaches

Dan Lanning impressed during his first full recruiting cycle. How does his inaugural class at Oregon compare to other first-year head coaches in Eugene?

What Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks were able to do in the 2023 recruiting cycle was impressive by many measures. Not only did the Ducks manage to sign the No. 8 ranked class in the nation and up the level of talent on the roster two-fold over the offseason, but Lanning also etched his name in Oregon lore with one of the top-ranked recruiting classes in school history.

What makes all of that more impressive is the fact that this was Lanning’s first full recruiting class in Eugene. While his fingerprints were on the 2022 class that ranked No. 13 in the nation, Lanning was forced to play from behind a year ago after Mario Cristobal’s late departure left several top prospects to reconsider the Ducks and go elsewhere. The 2023 class was Lanning’s from start to finish, and we finally got to see what he could do with a full year to go to work.

That got me to start thinking about how Lanning’s first year compares to the first recruiting cycle for other coaches in Oregon history. There have been great recruiters in the Ducks’ past, but do their first cycles as head coach stack up to what Lanning was able to do this past year?

Let’s dive into that. Here are the top five “inaugural” recruiting classes for Oregon coaches over the past couple of decades.

How Dan Lanning fared in comparison to other Oregon first-year head coaches

Dan Lanning notched 10 wins and a bowl victory in his first season with the Ducks. How does that compare to other first-year coaches in Oregon history?

A lot of time after the end of the 2022 college football season has been spent looking at first-year head coaches and assessing how they did at their respective programs.

For Dan Lanning, the season-long grades have been quite fair, with many crediting him and his team for an impressive 10-win season that resulted in a respectable bowl win and a heap of excitement and anticipation for the future in Eugene. While a lot of time has been spent comparing Lanning to other first-year head coaches in the nation, we wanted to take a second to look back at Oregon history and see how he compares to other Oregon coaches in their first years with the Ducks.

Lanning was able to notch 10 wins, but losses to both Oregon State and Washington were tough to swallow. How does that compare to the likes of Mario Cristobal, or Mark Helfrich, or Mike Bellotti?

In order to get a good breakdown, I went back through what I like to refer to as the “modern era” of Oregon coaches. While the Ducks have been around since 1894, a total of 39 head coaches came through the program, oftentimes only spending one or two seasons in Eugene. Until the legendary Len Casanova came along in 1951, no single coach had spent more than 5 seasons with the program. So that’s going to be where I start our modern era. Since 1951, there have been only 11 head coaches at Oregon.

How did Lanning’s first year compare to the other 10 guys when it comes to the start of their tenures in Eugene? Let’s take a look:

Former Duck tight end Cam McCormick joins Mario Cristobal in South Beach

Former Oregon tight end Cam McCormick will takes his talents to South Beach and play for his one-time coach Mario Cristobal.

Former Oregon Duck tight end announced via Twitter that he will transfer to Miami and play for his one-time coach Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes.

McCormick has one more season of eligibility and there are definitely worse places to be than South Bench for the Bend, Ore. native.

It makes sense that McCormick would go to Miami since Cristobal was his coach for most of the six seasons he spent in Eugene. The 6-foot-5, 260-pound tight end has battled leg injuries throughout his career, but he seemingly has put that behind him.

In 2022, McCormick caught 10 passes with three of those going for touchdowns.

According to David Lake of 247Sports, Miami’s offense will be more balanced with McCormick in the fold.

The best offenses are well-rounded and can win in different ways and when facing different scenarios. Offenses must be able to generate explosive plays and mash in the red-zone and short yardage situations (see Georgia).

 

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