Tag: Mariners Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (20-17) and Minnesota Twins (21-15) meet Thursday as they put a bow on a 4-game series in Minneapolis. The opening pitch in the Target Field matinee is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 2-1

Seattle is closing out a 7-game road trip. The Mariners are 9-9 across 18 road games this season.

Minnesota hit 3 HRs in Wednesday 6-3 triumph that saw the Twins lead wire-to-wire. Minnesota has 15 extra-base hits in this series and has slugged a .502 since April 22.

Mariners at Twins projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Gilbert (3-0, 1.69 ERA) is making his 8th start. He has a 0.79 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 48 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-0 win at Houston Astros Saturday
  • Career vs. Twins: 2-0, 1.69 ERA (16 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 3 BB, 18 K
  • Has held current Twins batters to an aggregate .624 OPS
  • Owns a 3.07 ERA on the road since 2022

Lopez (3-2, 4.30 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-1 win vs. Boston Red Sox Saturday
  • Career vs. Mariners: 0-1, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 12 H, 3 BB, 15 K

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Mariners at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-210) | Twins -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Twins 3

Moneyline

The starters have some fade and play to their numbers when looking at actual-vs.-expected analytics. Its an equation favoring Lopez, who also in past match-ups with current Seattle batters has held them to a .584 OPS.

The Seattle bullpen has a 2.64 ERA, which ranks 3rd in MLB. But that figure has been propped up by a .250 batting average on balls in play.

The Mariners have been a swing-and-miss bunch against right-handers. The Twins’ run scoring and prevention so far (4.67 runs per game, 4.28 RPG allowed) is mostly supportable when looking an underlying indicators.

BACK THE TWINS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Better relative value can be found on the ML.

Over/Under

The Over is 2-1 in this series and 4-1 across the last 5 Seattle-Minnesota meetings.

The Twins have an .858 OPS over their last 16 games, and it’s a lean into those numbers that produces just the slightest OVER 7 (+100) lean on a day with a decent breeze expected to help the pitchers.

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (20-16) visit the Minnesota Twins (20-15) on Wednesday night. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Mariners beat the Twins 10-6 on Tuesday to cover as +147 road underdogs as 5 Seattle players had at least 1 RBI, led by C Cal Raleigh‘s grand slam.

Minnesota failed to cover as a -160 home favorite in Tuesday’s loss. C Ryan Jeffers had a 3-run HR while RHP Jorge Alcala allowed 4 ER in 2 IP and took the loss.

Mariners at Twins projected starters

RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Chris Paddack

Kirby (3-2, 3.76 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 0.94 BB/9 and 9.63 K/9 in 38 1/3 IP.

  • Mariners 3-4 in his 7 starts
  • Has allowed 2 or fewer ER in each of his last 4 starts.
  • Has given up 16 ER and 2 HR with 4 BB and 41 K

Paddack (3-1, 4.78 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 1.97 BB/9 and 7.59 K/9 in 32 IP.

  • Twins are 5-1 in his 6 starts
  • Has not allowed an earned run in 2 of his last 3 starts.
  • Has allowed 17 ER and 5 HR with 7 BB and 27 K

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Mariners at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+150) | Twins +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Mariners 3

Moneyline

BET TWINS (-105).

Minnesota is 8-2 in its last 10 games and has won 3 of its last 5 at home. It has scored 5 or more runs in 6 of its last 10 games while allowing 5 or fewer runs in 8 of its last 10. Seattle has dropped 2 of its last 4 on the road and has scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of its last 9.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is no value on the run line.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

Seattle has failed to hit the Over in 9 of its last 10 games and has scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of its last 9 games while allowing 3 or fewer runs in 7 of its last 10. Minnesota has hit the Under in 3 of its last 5 and has scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of its last 4 games.

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (19-16) and Minnesota Twins (20-14) play the 2nd game of a 4-game series at Target Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 1-0

The Mariners dropped Monday’s opener 3-1. The series lid-lifter was a pitchers’ duel with just 7 total hits.

With Monday’s win, Minnesota bounced back after having a 12-game win streak snapped Sunday. The Twins are 13-1 with a robust .861 OPS since April 22.

Mariners at Twins projected starters

RHP Emerson Hancock vs. RHP Bailey Ober

Hancock (3-3, 4.75 ERA) is making his 7th start and 10th of his career. The 24-year-old has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 30 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 5-2 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Wednesday
  • Has never faced Twins before

Ober (3-1, 4.55 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He owns a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 31 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 10-5 win at Chicago White Sox Wednesday
  • Career vs. Mariners: 2-0, 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 7 ER), 12 H, 2 BB, 15 K in 3 starts

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Mariners at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mariners +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Twins -144 (bet $144 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-164) | Twins -1.5 (+136)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Twins when these 2 clubs met at Target Field last season. Prior to Monday’s setback, Seattle had been 7-3 over its last 10 road games.

Albeit in a small sample size, current Seattle bats own an aggregate .846 OPS off Ober (ESPN). Both bullpens have been quite good through the 1st 6 weeks of the season, but Seattle’s is in better shape at the back end after Monday’s and recent-game usage.

BACK THE MARINERS (+122).

Run line/Against the spread

Would be interested in Seattle +1.5 at around -160. But PASS at the current tag.

Over/Under

Actual-vs.-expected offense produced would indicate more offense in the tank for both sides. The Twins have played a particularly tough slate of pitchers, so they are a continuing pick to click with the bats (and likely an auto Over lean in many upcoming games).

Both bullpens have top-10 ERAs. And both are in fade territory with overall expectations relative to those surface figures. And again, the back end of Minnesota’s pen is in potential fatigue mode.

TAKE THE OVER 8 (-112).

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (19-15) and Minnesota Twins (19-14) clash Monday as they swing into a 4-game series in Minneapolis. The opener at Target Field has a scheduled start time of 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 1st meeting of 2024; Seattle took 4 of 7 games in 2023

Seattle is coming off taking 2 of 3 games at Houston over the weekend and is 7-3 with a tidy 2.02 ERA over its last 10 games.

The Twins lost to the Boston Red Sox 9-2 Sunday, snapping a 12-game win streak. Since April 22, Minnesota has smacked an .876 OPS while scoring 6.62 runs per game.

Mariners at Twins projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

Castillo (3-4, 3.46 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 3-2 win vs. Atlanta Braves Tuesday
  • Career vs. Twins: 1-1, 5.63 ERA (24 IP, 15 ER), 28 H, 7 BB, 31 in 5 starts
  • Owns a 2.86 ERA, allowing a mere .416 OPS over his last 3 starts

Woods Richardson (1-0, 2.45 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 14 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-5 win at Chicago White Sox Tuesday
  • Has never faced Mariners before
  • Owns a 4.07 ERA in 24 1/3 career IP

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Mariners at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mariners -126 (bet $126 to win $100) | Twins +108 (bet $100 to win $108)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+136) | Twins +1.5 (-164)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)

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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Twins when these 2 clubs last met at Target Field. Seattle is 7-3 over its last 10 road games.

Castillo has pitched quite well of late after a dodgy start to his 2024 campaign. He thrives on 5 days of rest, which is his interval coming into this start. Castillo gives the visiting nine a significant mound edge in this match-up, and the Twins figure to be a couple games too far out over their skis with their record.

BACK THE MARINERS (-126).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS; the Seattle side above has better relative value.

Over/Under

The Over is 5-2 across the last 7 series meetings.

Castillio is still the preferred side of this pitching match-up, but the Twins bring a lot of lefty bats to the party, and that cuts into a Castillo weakness.

Actual-vs.-expected offense produced would indicate more offense in the tank for both sides. The Twins have played a particularly tough slate of pitchers, so they are a continuing pick to click with the bats (and likely an auto Over lean in many upcoming games).

Both bullpens have top-10 ERAs. And both are in fade territory with overall expectations relative to those surface figures.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-120).

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Seattle Mariners (50-50) and Minnesota Twins (54-48) meet Tuesday for 2nd game of a 4-game set in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Minnesota leads 1-0

Seattle dropped Monday’s lid-lifter 4-3 in 10 innings. With that result, the Mariners are now 13-19 in 1-run games and 4-9 in extra-inning affairs. Seattle went 0-for-11 Monday with runners in scoring position.

The Twins have won 4 consecutive games and have gotten solid pitching in going 14-6 over their last 20. Over that span, Minnesota hurlers have logged a 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP.

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Mariners at Twins projected starters

RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Kirby (9-8, 3.23 ERA) makes his 20th start of the 2023 campaign. He has registered a 1.04 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 119 2/3 innings.

  • Scuffled in his 1st outing after the break, but rallied to throw 7 shutout innings in his last start (July 20 against these Twins)
  • Has authored a 2.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP over his last 7 starts

Lopez (5-6, 4.22 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 121 2/3 innings.

  • Got off to a hot start this season, but owns a 4.61 ERA since April 28
  • ERA is his would-be single-season highest since 2019 season (5.09)
  • Owns a 4.98 ERA at home

Mariners at Twins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-205) | Twins -1.5 (+168)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)

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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Mariners 3

Moneyline

Minnesota is 7-3 over its last 10 games against Seattle (3-0 at home). With  Lopez being a value option on the mound, and with the Twins being the better offense — especially against right-handers (.744 OPS), TAKE MINNESOTA (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

Both teams have played more 1-run games than the average club. But the juice here takes the profitability out of a potential play.

PASS.

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Over/Under

The Seattle Mariners have hit the team Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.20 Units, 16% ROI). The Minnesota Twins have hit the team Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.40 Units, 11% ROI).

A couple good bullpens and some undervalue tint to Lopez make the lean toward an Under here. The UNDER 7.5 (-104) is worth a partial-unit play.

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (50-49) and Minnesota Twins (53-48) open a 3-game set at Target Field on Monday. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Mariners had a 3-game winning streak snapped with a 4-3 defeat against the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. The M’s have played fairly well of late, going 12-8 in the last 20 games and 16-14 over the last 30. They are 21-24 on the road and 10-10 against the AL Central. These teams met last week in Seattle with Minnesota taking 2 of 3.

Minnesota is surging, winning 3 in a row and 8 of 10. The Twins have opened a 3-game division lead as they’ve gone 13-7 over the last 20. They hit well in the series last week with 10-3 and 6-3 victories before falling 5-0 in the finale. The Twins are 29-22 at home and 10-6 against the AL West.

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Mariners at Twins projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Kenta Maeda

Castillo (6-7, 3.04 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 11 K in the 6-3 loss against the Twins Wednesday
  • 4 career starts vs. the Twins: 1-1, 6.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 22 K in 17 IP

Maeda (2-5, 5.10 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 42 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP,  2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K in the 6-3 win vs. the Mariners Wednesday
  • 2 career starts vs. Mariners: 0-0, 2.61 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 16 K in 10 1/3 IP

Mariners at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+145) | Twins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mariners at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

Castillo wasn’t terrible against the Twins Wednesday, but they touched him up for 2 HRs that led to the 3 ER. He has allowed 2 HRs in 5 of his last 6 starts. Only 1 of those starts was on the road, though. The Twins are hot, but they’ve beaten up on some lesser teams in the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox. I’m not enamored with them despite the success, and Castillo is an advantage over Maeda.

Take the MARINERS -115.

Run line/Against the spread

I like the Twins’ side of the RL here, I just don’t like the price. They are also just 22-27 on the RL at home this year. Unless the price drops to -165 or better, PASS.

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Over/Under

The Twins have cashed an Over in 7 of 8 games, and 2 of the 3 between the sides last week went Over. The Over has cashed in Castillo’s last 5 starts. It has cashed in Maeda’s last 3 starts.

The total seems like a good spot to LEAN OVER 8 (-115).

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (2-1) face the Minnesota Twins (1-2) Monday for their four-game series finale at the Target Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 6-4 featuring two impressive outings from Mariners LHP Robbie Ray Friday and RHP Logan Gilbert Saturday.

However, Minnesota took the third game 10-4 Sunday thanks to a 6 home run performance from its lineup, which included a 1st inning grand slam by first-year Mariner C Gary Sanchez who joined the team following seven years with the New York Yankees.

Mariners at Twins: Projected starters

RHP Chris Flexen vs. RHP Dylan Bundy 

Flexen was 14-6 in 2021 with a 3.61 ERA (179 2/3 IP, 72 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 over 31 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 13 K and 2 BB in 2 starts.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster: 4.31 FIP with a .341 batting average (BA), .361 wOBA, .384 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.3 K% and 88.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 45 plate appearances (PA).

Bundy was 2-9 last season with a 6.06 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 19 starts and 4 relief appearances with the Los Angeles Angels.

  • 2021 vs. Mariners: 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster: 2.23 FIP with a .303 BA, .346 wOBA, .410 xSLG, 27.8 K% and 86.1 mph EV in 36 PA.

Mariners at Twins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Twins -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Twins prediction and picks

Prediction

Mariners 8, Twins 4

Money line

GIMME the MARINERS (+110) for 1 unit as a fade against Bundy as the Twins’ starter. The market continues to support Bundy who was a former No. 4 overall pick in the 2011 draft and is now on his third team.

Bundy has a career 4.46 FIP and graded in the bottom-third of the MLB last season in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, barrel rate and whiff rate, according to Statcast.

Seattle and Minnesota’s lineups are equal but the Mariners have much better bullpen pitching. Even if Flexen doesn’t give Seattle a quality start, the Mariners could still rundown the Twins.

BET the MARINERS (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Flexen pitched better at home than on the road last season and gave up 5 ER over 5 IP in his one start in Minnesota.

This rules out both the pricey Mariners +1.5 (-180) and the chunky Mariners -1.5 (+170) tickets despite my predicted score.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 9.5 (-105) if at all because I’m high on both lineups entering 2022, the weather forecast is predicting nearly 14 mph winds blowing out to centerfield and the Twins are 87-69-9 O/U since the beginning of last season.

However, most of the market is backing the Over here and I hate following the herd in sports betting.

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Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

After their original meeting was postponed Thursday due to rain, the Seattle Mariners play the Minnesota Twins for their opening games Friday. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle beat Minnesota 4-2 in last season’s series. The Mariners outscored the Twins 30-29 and won two of three games in both the home and away series.

The Mariners were a surprising story in 2021, finishing with a 90-72 record and two games back of the two American League wild-card seeds.

Conversely, the Twins had a down year last season with a 73-89 record after winning back-to-back AL Central crowns in 2019 and 2020.

Mariners at Twins: Projected starters

LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Joe Ryan 

Ray is Seattle’s starter for their opener. He won the 2021 American League Cy Young behind a 13-7 record with an AL-leading 2.84 ERA (193 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 32 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 6 K and 4 BB in one start.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .410 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 44 plate appearances (PA).

Ryan takes the hill for Minnesota’s home opener. He made his MLB debut Sept. 1 and finished 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in five starts.

  • Ryan is Minnesota’s sixth-ranked prospect and MLB.com’s 97th-ranked prospect.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster: Never pitched against Seattle

Mariners at Twins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+165) | Twins +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Mariners at Twins prediction and picks

Prediction

Mariners 6, Twins 3

Money line

BET the MARINERS (+100) because their lineup versus Minnesota’s is a wash but Seattle has a far better starter on the mound and a much more reliable bullpen.

Seattle’s bullpen was top five last season in FIP, home runs per 9 innings allowed (HR/9) and WAR, whereas Minnesota’s bullpen was 20th or worse in WAR, HR/9 and FIP. The Twins relievers were also dead-last in both hard-hit rate and EV as a unit.

Furthermore, the Twins were just 20-36 overall versus left-handed starters and 29-49 against teams with a winning record.

BET the MARINERS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Mariners -1.5 (+165) since I like them to win this game outright and Seattle should cover the RL if so.

However, I’m noticing Minnesota’s ML has been hit by sharp money so making an additional bet on the Mariners might be foolhardy.

Minnesota’s disastrous 2021 could be a blip with the Twins winning the divisions the two years prior and making some big moves this offseason including signing coveted free agent SS Carlos Correa.

I want to see what the Twins look like before I’m laying -1.5 against them in Minnesota.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-130) because this total feels shockingly low considering all the firepower in both lineups and the Twins played in the most Overs in the AL last season.

A vast majority of the market is also surprisingly on the Under according to pregame.com and vegasinsider.com, which is mostly due to the defending AL Cy Young taking the hill for Seattle.

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