Tag: Mariners Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (57-52) take on the Boston Red Sox (56-50) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set at Fenway Park at 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The M’s dropkicked the Sox with 8 runs in the 5th and 6th innings to take control of a 10-6 win Tuesday. SS Dylan Moore continued his hot hitting with 2 hits and 3 RBIs. He has hits in 5 straight games. The Mariners have won 4 of 5 as they continue their march toward October.

The Red Sox have lost 3 of 4 and are just 3-7 over the last 10 games. After leading the league in ERA for a good chunk of the season, their pitching has really eroded. They’ve allowed 63 runs in the last 6 games! Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers did his part Tuesday with a 3-for-5 night with a homer and 4 RBIs.

Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Kirby (8-7, 3.03 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 130 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 10-0 victory Friday at Chicago White Sox
  • Last 5 starts vs. Boston: 2-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 28 K in 28 1/3 IP

Bello (10-5, 5.27 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 100 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-7 home win Friday against New York Yankees
  • 3 career starts vs. Mariners: 3-0, 3.94 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 16 K in 16 IP

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mariners at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

Kirby has allowed 1 ER or fewer in 3 straight starts, and Bello has allowed 3+ ER in 4 straight. I really like the MARINERS -125 here for the price. They’ve scored 6+ runs in 5 straight games and have reinforcements in place from the trade deadline.

Run line/Against the spread

I like GEORGE KIRBY OVER 5.5 K’S (-110). He has 6+ K’s in 4 straight starts overall and in his last 3 against the Red Sox.

Over/Under

I know we’ve gone WAY Over in the first 2 games of the series, but we’re going Under Wednesday. It’s slated to be 80 degrees with a fierce 13-mph wind blowing straight in. It’s get-away day, and make sure your destination is to the bank with UNDER 9.5 (-115).

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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners (56-51) and the Boston Red Sox (55-49) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Fenway Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Mariners opened a 6-game road “Sox” series with a 3-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, outscoring the Pale Hose 22-6 and  cashing the Over in all 3 outings. Seattle has cashed the Over at a 9-3-2 pace in the past 14 road contests, too.

The Red Sox suffered 2 losses in 3 tries against the rival New York Yankees over the weekend, cashing the Over in all 3 contests. Boston was outscored 26-19 in the 3-game set, and Boston pitching has coughed up 7 or more runs in 7 of the past 8 outings. The Over is 7-1 since July 20.

These teams met for a season-opening 4-game set in Seattle from March 28-31, with the teams splitting the series. The Over-Under also went 2-2, and 2 of the games (both of the Seattle wins) were 1-run games.

Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Gilbert (6-6, 2.72 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 0.86 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 139 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 R (1 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 5-1 home loss vs. Los Angeles Angels Tuesday
  • 2024 road splits: 4-2, 2.57 ERA (73 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.87 WHIP, .189 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 15 BB, 63 K in 11 starts
  • 2024 vs. Red Sox: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 4-3 win in 10 innings at T-Mobile Park March 30
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 3.12 ERA (26 IP, 9 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 4 starts

Pivetta (4-7, 4.50 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 84 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 8 R (7 ER), 10 H (2 HR), 0 BB, 6 K in 20-7 road setback vs. Colorado Rockies Wednesday
  • 2024 home splits: 1-4, 5.50 ERA (36 IP, 22 ER), 1.33 WHIP, .241 OBA, 14 BB, 47 K in 7 starts
  • 2024 vs. Mariners: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (1 solo HR), 0 BB, 10 K in 1-0 road setback March 29
  • Career vs. Mariners: 1-2, 3.65 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 in 4 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mariners at Red Sox odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Red Sox -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+152) | Red Sox +1.5 (-184)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Red Sox 4

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-102) are worth a look as short ‘dogs in this series opener, as Seattle sails in on a 3-game winning streak.

In addition, the M’s turn to Gilbert, who has been money on the road. He has a sparkling 2.57 ERA away from home, while Pivetta has been a disaster at Fenway Park this season.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more on the adventurous side, disregard the moneyline, and roll with SEATTLE -1.5 (+152) at plus-money. The M’s not only swept the White Sox over the weekend, but they managed to win by 3 or more runs and cashing against the run line in each of the outings.

On the flip side, Boston +1.5 (-184) has not only posted a dismal 2-7 mark in the past 9 games, it has lost 5 of those outings by 3 or more runs. In the past 9 games, the Red Sox have a terrible minus-22 run differential, too.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110), which is a strong play based on the recent performances for both teams.

The Red Sox have cashed high in 4 straight, and 7 of the past 8 outings. Boston has coughed up 7 or more runs in 7 of the previous 8 contests, too.

For the M’s, the Over hit in the first 3 games of the road trip, and the total has gone high in 15-4-2 in the past 21 away from home.

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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Seattle Mariners (21-21) and Boston Red Sox (23-20) finish up a 3-game set at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The first 2 games of this series has been on different swings of the pendulum. The Mariners won 10-1 Monday night, but it was Boston slugging away in a 9-4 victory Tuesday. Seattle has been stuck in neutral as a .500 ballclub thus far, going 6-4 and 11-9 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively.

Tuesday’s win snapped a 4-game skid for the Red Sox. They slugged 3 home runs as the wind was blowing out in Fenway. Japanese-import OF Masataka Yoshida drove in 3 runs in what has been a productive start for him stateside. He’s hitting .301 with 6 homers and 27 RBIs.

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Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Marco Gonzales vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Gonzales (3-0, 4.42 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 36 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 9-2 road victory vs. Detroit Tigers Friday
  • Last 5 starts vs. Red Sox: 1-2, 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 24 K in 25 2/3 IP

Bello (2-1, 5.01 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 5-2 road victory vs. Atlanta Braves last Wednesday
  • Has not faced the Mariners in his career
  • Last 3 starts: 2-0, 2.81 ERA, 16 K in 16 IP

Mariners at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:17 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

The Red Sox are 10-5 against left-handed starters this year despite hitting 20 points lower against lefties (.742 OPS) than righties (.806). The weather figures to keep this one lower scoring, and Gonzales has a 6.30 ERA in 2 starts at Fenway. Seattle is just 2-9 in its last 11 meetings with Boston.

Take RED SOX (-120) at a pretty reasonable price.

Run line/Against the spread

Boston’s last 5 wins have been by multiple runs, but Seattle has the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.83. As mentioned, the weather should keep scoring down, which we’ll touch upon in the total section.

As such, PASS.

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Over/Under

It’s expected to be 52 degrees with a 14-mph breeze blowing in from the Green Monster. The chilly conditions and moderate breeze should keep the ball in the park. Despite his bloated ERA, Bello has really pitched well of late. While both teams slugged with the wind blowing out the last two nights, this is a good number to go UNDER 9.5  (-110).

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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Seattle Mariners (21-20) continue their 3-game series at the Boston Red Sox (22-20) on Tuesday. First pitch from Fenway Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mariners lead 1-0

The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 7 games and while you could forgive them (somewhat) if they lost against the scary AL East, their recent opponents are either straddling .500 or well under.

In the series opener Monday, Seattle scored 2 runs in the 5th inning on catcher Cal Raleigh‘s HR and 3 in the 6th before Boston scored on a double by 3B Rafael Devers. But the Mariners kept up the attack and won 10-1. Boston lost 9-1 in its previous game against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday.

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Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Castillo (2-1, 2.70 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 46 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K in a 4-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners on May 10
  • .Has 095 opponent BA in his 2 wins, .348 in his 1 loss

Pivetta (2-3, 6.23 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 34 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 9-3 loss at the Atlanta Braves May 9
  • Nearly 85% of his innings pitched have been against teams with a record at or above .500%

Mariners at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cardinals at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Mariners 3

Moneyline

Trendwise both teams are coming into Tuesday on a streak. The Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 against teams with a winning record. And the Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.

I like the idea of grabbing the home team at plus money, but you may want to be safer with the run line.

LEAN RED SOX +135.

Run line/Against the spread

Boston has a 8-4 record ATS as a home underdog. For those uncomfortable picking Boston straight up at home, -115 is not as chalky as you would think for a home dog.

BET RED SOX +1.5 (-115).

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Over/Under

While Boston is the 3rd-best team Over team in MLB at home (16-7-1), they have been in a slump recently, scoring more than 3 runs just twice in their last 7 games. That hasn’t stopped the other team from running up the score, but with Seattle 11-8 toward the Under on the road best to just PASS.

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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Seattle Mariners (20-20) begin a 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox (22-19) on Monday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023. The Red Sox won the 2022 season series 6-1.

The Mariners lost 5-3 at the Detroit Tigers Sunday as they failed to complete a 3-game sweep. Seattle has gone 6-4 in its last 10 contests.

The Red Sox were defeated by the St. Louis Cardinals 9-1 on Sunday and were swept in the 3-game series. Boston was 5-2 in the 7 games prior to the Cardinals series.

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Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Tanner Houck

Kirby (4-2, 2.62 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 0.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 44 2/3 IP.

  • Has walked a total of 3 batters in his first 7 starts
  • Has logged a quality start in 6 consecutive outings

Houck (3-2, 5.26 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 37 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 5-plus hits and 3-plus ER in 5 of his first 7 starts
  • His 3.64 xERA suggests he’s due for positive regression

Mariners at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Red Sox 4

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-120) are the pick in Monday’s matchup with Kirby on the bump. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games against a right-handed pitcher, which doesn’t bode well against Kirby.

Run line/Against the spread

RED SOX +1.5 (-160) is the choice despite expecting the Mariners to secure the win. Even though the odds are juiced for Boston to cover the spread, it should be able to keep it close at home on Monday.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 10 (-115).

The Red Sox are 27-13-1 to the Over this season, but Kirby has done a fantastic job limiting runs and Houck faces a Mariners lineup that has been inconsistent.

Seattle is 4-0 to the Under in its last 4 games against a team with a winning record and in its last 4 games against a right-handed starter.

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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (17-22) continue their 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (16-22) at Fenway Park Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston clobbered Seattle in the series opener 12-6 Thursday, but the Red Sox are just 4-6 overall in the last 10 games while the Mariners are 6-4 in the last 10. Red Sox 2B/SS Trevor Story had 4 hits, 3 homers and 7 RBIs in the clubbing.

Mariners rookie OF Julio Rodriguez is coming of age with a .391 average, 2 homers and 3 RBIs in the last 7 days.

Boston’s problems haven’t been at the plate as DH J.D. Martinez (.500-2-5) and 3B Rafael Devers (.480-2-5) have clobbered the ball the last 7 days.

Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Michael Wacha 

Ray is 4-3 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 48 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-7, at the New York Mets Sunday with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Red Sox: 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER), 16 H, 4 HR, 9 BB and 27 K in 4 starts.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 6.31 FIP with a .235/.349/.468 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 28.3 K% and 90.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 187 plate appearances (PA).

Wacha is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 26 IP across 5 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 4-0, Tuesday vs. the Los Angeles Angels with 5 2/3-scoreless IP, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mariners: 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 20 H, 4 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster: 5.83 FIP with a .350/.421/.597 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 16.3 K% and 90.4 mph EV in 86 PA.

Mariners at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Red Sox -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+160) | Red Sox +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 7, Red Sox 5

Money line

LEAN MARINERS (-103) because they have a 2-phase edge over the Red Sox (-117) in starting pitching and hitting, and their bullpens are essentially even. Also, there’s a line freeze in the betting market as nearly 85% of the cash is on Boston (per Pregame.com), but the line hasn’t budged.

However, Seattle is just 8-15 overall on the road, and the Over is my favorite bet in the Mariners-Red Sox. Wacha is also extremely lucky this season with an astounding .162 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). That is tops in the majors for pitchers with at least 20 innings, per Fangraphs.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Mariners -1.5 (+160) probably shouldn’t be the RL favorite here, and Seattle is just 12-11 RL on the road this year.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 8.5 (-125) because the total is being steamed up by sharp line movement, Mariners-Red Sox is 7-1 O/U in the last 8 meetings in Boston, and Seattle is 5-2 O/U in Rays’ 7 starts.

Also. weather and ballpark conditions are hitter-friendly. Fenway Park was second in run factor last year and is a difficult place for lefties to pitch. Also, the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.

BET the OVER 8.5 (-125).

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Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (17-21) head to Fenway Park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (15-22) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle prevented a 3-game sweep at the Toronto Blue Jays with a 5-1 win Wednesday and is 5-5 overall in its last 10 games.

Boston is also 5-5 overall in its last 10 but won 2 of 3 in the previous series vs. the Houston Astros.

Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

RHP George Kirby vs. LHP Rich Hill 

Kirby is 0-0 with a 0.90 ERA (10 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 1 BB and 8 K over 2 starts in his rookie season.

  • His first outing was a quality start in Seattle’s 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays May 8 with 6-scoreless IP. He then gave up 1 ER over 4 IP in his second start at the New York Mets in a 5-4 loss Saturday.

Hill is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 28 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 11-3, Saturday at the Texas Rangers with 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster: 5.16 FIP with a .273/.352/.526 expected batting average, wOBA, slugging percentage slash line, 34.6 K% and 85.0 mph exit velocity in 52 plate appearances.

Mariners at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:04 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-200) | Red Sox -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Red Sox 4

Money line

BET the MARINERS (+102) because their 2-8 overall record vs. left-handed starters is misleading and there’s a line freeze in the betting market.

Seattle’s lineup is near or above-average in several advanced hitting metrics against lefty pitching such as wRC+, wOBA, hard-hit rate and BB/K but is being held back by the second-worst BABIP in the MLB at .239. Essentially, the Mariners have had bad luck at the plate vs. lefties and that should normalize.

Nearly 80% of the cash is on the Red Sox according to Pregame.com, but the line hasn’t budged, which is very suspicious. Oddsmakers will typically move the line towards the more popular team but it seems as if the sportsbooks want more pro-Boston action here.

BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Mariners +1.5 (-200) is out of my price range and I’m not confident enough in Seattle to sprinkle on its alternate RL.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-110) because Fenway Park isn’t friendly for left-handed pitchers and the Over cashed in 6 of the 7 Mariners-Red Sox meetings in 2021.

But, Seattle is 7-13 O/U as a road underdog with a minus-1.2 total margin and Boston is 4-6 O/U as a home favorite.

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