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The Seattle Mariners (45-37) and the Tampa Bay Rays (40-40) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 2-0
The Mariners will be happy when it’s wheels up from St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport on their charter flight to Seattle Wednesday afternoon. The Mariners dropped the first 2 games of this series after losing 2 of 3 at the Miami Marlins. Seattle lost Monday’s opener 4-3 as basically a -102 “pick-em” before getting trounced 11-3 as a -126 favorite Wednesday. SP Luis Castillo allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 5 1/3 innings in the 8-run defeat.
The Rays have finally scratched back to .500 for the first time in 3 weeks. The last time the Rays were above .500 was May 20. Tampa Bay has won 6 of the past 7 games, and there have been plenty of nail-biters. The Rays have played in 7 one-run games in the past 14 outings, going 4-3 in those contests.
The Over is 1-0-1 in the first 2 games of this series, which is a departure from the previous 6 games at The Trop which saw the Over go 4-1-1.
The Over is 6-1-1 in the first 8 stops on this 9-game road trip for the Mariners, which wraps up Wednesday.
Mariners at Rays projected starters
RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot
Kirby (6-5, 3.47 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 93 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 5 K in 3-2 loss in 10 innings at Miami Marlins Friday
- 2024 road splits: 1-4, 4.41 ERA (51 IP, 25 ER), 1.10 WHIP, .256 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 10 HR, 7.2 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Rays: 1-0, 2.79 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.78 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 3 starts
Pepiot (4-4, 4.61 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 66 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 10-3 win at Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2024 home splits: 1-3, 5.36 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.19 WHIP, .219 OBA, 7 HR, 9.4 K/9 in 8 starts
- Never faced Mariners before
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mariners at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+150) | Rays +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mariners at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Rays 4
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-115) are worth playing lightly in this series finale as the pitching scales are slightly tipped in their favor.
Kirby’s body of work has been better than that of the Rays’ Pepiot, but the Seattle RHP has struggled on the road. So, be careful. Of course, Pepiot has been atrocious at home, too, posting a 5.36 ERA with 7 HRs allowed in 40 1/3 innings under the roof.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rays +1.5 (-185) will cost nearly 2 times the potential return if you’d like a little insurance and can’t pick the home team straight up to finish off the sweep.
AVOID.
Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (-105) is worth a look as the Mariners pitching staff has been fairly giving of late.
The Over is 6-1-1 in the first 8 games of this road trip, with Seattle pitching surrendering 43 runs, or 5.4 runs per game (RPG). The Over has a slight 5-4 edge in the past 9 starts by Kirby, too.
For the Rays, the total has gone high at a 6-3-1 clip in the past 10 games, while the Over is 3-0-1 in Pepiot’s previous 4 starting assignments.
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