Tag: Mariners Angels odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Seattle Mariners (30-31) and the Los Angeles Angels (34-30) kick off a 3-game series Friday at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Angels lead 2-1

Mariners pitching has been horrendous lately, coughing up 10 or more runs in 3 of the past 4 outings — and 6 times since May 26. It’s a little surprising too, as Seattle still ranks 12th in the majors with a 4.02 team ERA while checking in with the 6th best WHIP at 1.22.

The Angels have picked up 4 straight victories, averaging 4.5 runs and allowing 2.0 runs per game. It’s no surprise that the Under is 3-1 during the impressive span.

Los Angeles won 2 of 3 meetings when these divisional rivals squared off in Seattle on April 3-5. Seattle’s lone victory was an 11-2 rout in the middle contest as it outscored L.A. 17-13 in the series.

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Mariners at Angels projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani

Castillo (4-3, 2.55 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 70 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 2-0 road loss vs. the Texas Rangers last Friday
  • 2023 Road splits: 0-2, 3.91 ERA (23 IP, 10 ER – 4 HR) with a .256 OBA in 4 starts

Ohtani (5-2, 3.30 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 71 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in a 6-2 road loss vs. the Houston Astros last Friday
  • 2023 Home splits: 3-1, 2.31 ERA (39 IP, 10 ER – 3 HR) with a .154 OBA in 6 starts

Mariners at Angels odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mariners +110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Angels -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Angels -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Angels 5, Mariners 2

Moneyline

The ANGELS (-135) are a solid play at home in this series opener with Ohtani on the bump.

Ohtani has already beaten the Mariners once this season, allowing just 1 ER, 3 H and 4 BB with 8 K across 6 IP to earn his 1st victory of 2023 on April 5.

The Halos have won 5 of the past 7 meetings in this series, are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall and have cashed 9 of the past 11 series openers.

Run line/Against the spread

The ANGELS -1.5 (+155) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line behind Ohtani.

The Mariners have been hemorrhaging runs lately, going 1-4 in the past 5 games as underdogs on the run line and losing by 7 or more runs in each of their past 3 losses.

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Over/Under

The total is very low, but that’s the ‘Ohtani Factor’. When he is on the bump, the shops adjust accordingly. I actually expect the total to come right in on the number, but if I had a lean, it would be to go lightly on the Over.

The best play is to AVOID, and just focus on the moneyline and/or run line.

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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (80-62) are slated to begin a 4-game series with the Los Angeles Angels (61-82) on Friday at Angel Stadium at 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mariners lead 8-7

The Mariners have had a solid September thus far, going 8-4 in their 12 games. Seattle is 13 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West, but they are currently positioned as the No. 1 seed in the AL wild-card race.

It has been an extremely disappointing season for the Angels and this month hasn’t been any better. Los Angeles has won only 4 of its 12 games in September and are currently on a 4-game losing streak entering Friday’s game.

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Mariners at Angels projected starters

LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen

Ray (12-9, 3.56 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and 10.2 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 6 of his last 7 starts
  • Aug. 16 at Angels: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Lorenzen (6-6, 4.70 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, and 6.7 K/9 in 76 2/3 IP.

  • Making 2nd start since returning from a stint on IL in July
  • June 24 vs. Mariners: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Mariners at Angels odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:39 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Angels +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+102) | Angels +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Angels 3

Money line

The money line in this game is barely at a point where I’ll have to PASS on wagering on it. If you’re able to find somewhere that is offering the Mariners at -150 or better, I’d feel better taking them straight up.

Run line/Against the spread

MARINERS -1.5 (+102) is where I’m going in this game with Seattle looking to finish strong to ensure they gain an AL wild-card spot. The Mariners have won by at least 2 runs in 10 of their last 11 wins.

Over/Under

With Ray on the mound for the Mariners, the Under is the favored bet, but I’m going with OVER 8.5 RUNS (-105). Seattle should have no issues producing runs against a pitcher in Lorenzen that is making just his 2nd start since returning from the injured list.

The Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 starts Ray has made against a team in the AL West. On top of that, the Over is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams, including each of the last 5.

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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (34-40) host the Seattle Mariners (34-39) Sunday at Angel Stadium for their 3-game series finale. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle is on a 5-game winning streak, which includes the first 2 games of this series with the Mariners outscoring the Angels 9-6.

L.A. has lost 4 of its last 5 games but took 4 of 5 from the Mariners in Seattle last week.

The Angels lead the season series with the Mariners 4-3 and have a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.

Mariners at Angels projected starters

LHP Marco Gonzales vs. LHP José Suarez      

Gonzales is 4-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-2, Tuesday at the Oakland Athletics with 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Angels: 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 3 HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 3 starts.

Suarez is 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 27 IP over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last start: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-0 win in Seattle June 18 with 4 1/3-scoreless IP, 4 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mariners: 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 1 HR, 6 BB and 13 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Mariners at Angels odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Angels -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Angels 4

Money line

BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (+115) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Angels (-140) in starting and relief pitching and hitting, and there’s a line freeze in the betting market.

Gonzales’ numbers vs. the Angels last season were much better than Suarez’s vs. the Mariners. Seattle’s bullpen ranks ahead of L.A.’s in xFIP (3.98-3.75), K/BB rate (3.46-2.86), hard-hit rate, contact rate and swinging-strike rate, according to FanGraphs.

Also, Seattle’s lineup outperforms L.A.’s vs. left-handed pitching in runs per 9 (3.76-3.61), wRC+ (104-93), wOBA (.305-.297) and BB/K rate (0.53-0.38), per FanGraphs.

Finally, more than 90% of the action is on the Angels (per Pregame.com), but their ML hasn’t budged off the opener. Common sense suggests oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so this “line freeze” could be the sportsbooks daring bettors to take the Angels.

BET the MARINERS (+115).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

You could argue there’s value in Seattle’s alternate RL, but I’m staying away since the Mariners are just 10-18 RL as favorites. The Angels are 7-2 RL as home underdogs as well.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) since the total has been steamed up from a 9-run opener by the market, Angel Stadium is more hitter-friendly and the weather conditions forecasted are favorable.

Angel Stadium is 9th in park factor and temperatures are projected to be in the low-90s with a light breeze blowing out to right-center field.

However, I cannot fully get there on the Over since it’s almost “too popular”, L.A. is 10-18-3 O/U as home favorites, and Seattle’s ML is my favorite look in this game.

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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (32-39) head to Angel Stadium Friday to start a 3-game series with American League West co-tenant Los Angeles Angels (34-38) at 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle swept the Athletics in Oakland Tuesday-Thursday but dropped 4 of a 5-game series at home vs. L.A. last week. The Mariners are 5-5 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

The Angels are also 5-5 SU in the last 10 and prevented a 3-game sweep at home against the Kansas City Royals with a 5-0 win Wednesday.

L.A. leads the season series with Seattle 4-1, and the Angels have a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.

Mariners at Angels projected starters

RHP Chris Flexen vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen      

Flexen is 2-8 with a 4.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 72 1/3 IP over 13 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Seattle’s 4-2 home loss vs. the Angels Saturday with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 0-5 with a 4.62 ERA (37 IP, 19 ER), 5 HR, 1.49 WHIP and 5.6 K/9 in 7 starts.

Lorenzen is 6-4 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 65 IP across 11 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 8-1, June 17 at the Mariners with 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 home splits: 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 3 HR, 0.98 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 5 starts.

Mariners at Angels odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Angels -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-155) | Angels -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Mariners at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 6, Angels 4

Money line

BET a half-unit on the MARINERS (+125) because they have edges over the Angels (-155) in the relief pitching and hitting matchups.

Seattle’s bullpen ranks ahead of L.A.’s in xFIP (3.96-3.80), K/BB rate (3.49-3.05), hard-hit rate (39.1-36.5%) and chase rate (35.4-32.3%), according to FanGraphs.

Also, the Mariners are 28-26 SU vs. righty starters while the Angels are 25-27 SU and Seattle’s lineup outperforms L.A.’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (110-105) and BB/K rate (0.40-0.30), per FanGraphs.

Furthermore, the Mariners’ only victory over the Angels this season came with Lorenzen on the bump, and Flexen is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Angels.

BET the MARINERS (+125) but go light since they are just 10-19 SU as road underdogs.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a “lean” to the Mariners +1.5 (-155) since they are 16-13 RL as road underdogs, and the Angels -1.5 (+125) are 12-17 RL as home favorites.

However, all 5 Mariners-Angels meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs including an extra-inning affair.

Over/Under

PASS.

“Lean” Over 9.5 (-105), but all the value has been bet out of this number. The Mariners-Angels total opened at 9, and the market has hammered the Over so we’d be getting the worst of the number.

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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (49-44) close out their three-game road series against the Los Angeles Angels (46-45) Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 3-2 with a 3.51 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 48 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

Gilbert’s last start was his best of the season, allowing 0 runs and issuing 0 walks with just 1 hit across 7 innings in a 3-0 win July 8 over the New York Yankees.

LHP Patrick Sandoval is the projected starting pitcher for the Angels. He is 2-3 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 56 IP over nine starts and three relief appearances.

Sandoval is 0-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 16 K through 13 IP through two starts against the Mariners this season.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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ROAD TEAM at HOME TEAM odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Angels -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Angels 4, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The Mariners have won three of their last five games against the Angels. They took two of three just before the All-Star Break in Seattle and have split the first two games of this series. While they are 20-24 on the road this season they have won five of their last eight away from home.

The Angels are 27-21 at Angel Stadium this season. They are 10-5 in their last 15 games and have won four of Sandoval’s last five starts.

Take the ANGELS (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seattle is 52-41 ATS this season, the third-best ATS record in baseball. The M’s are 25-19 ATS on the road and have covered the spread in four of their last six games.

The Angels are 42-49 ATS overall and 23-25 ATS at home. L.A. has covered just four of its twelve games against Seattle this year.

I expect an Angels win but a Mariners cover. Take the MARINERS +1.5 (-175).

Over/Under (O/U)

The first two games of the series have had totals of 11 and 13 runs. Angels Stadium has the highest Over percentage in the league at 66.0% and six of the last eight games there have had totals of more than 8 runs.

Six of Gilbert’s 10 starts have had totals of fewer than nine runs and Sandoval pitched superbly in his last outing.

Take UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (49-43) and Los Angeles Angels (45-45) play the second game of a three-game set Saturday at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 98 1/3 IP across 16 starts.

Kikuchi coughed up five runs, eight hits and three walks with five strikeouts in five innings in a home loss to the New York Yankees July 7 in his most recent outing.

The southpaw has just one start against the Halos this season, allowing four runs (three earned) and six hits over four innings in a no-decision June 5 in Anaheim.

RHP Alex Cobb is the projected starting pitcher for the Angels. He is 6-3 with a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across 66 IP in 13 starts.

Cobb allowed two unearned runs, four hits and three walks with five strikeouts in his most recent start, a no-decision at the Seattle Mariners July 9. He beat the M’s at home June 5, allowing five runs in seven innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Mariners at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:39 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-190) | Angels -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Angels 6, Mariners 4

Money line (ML)

The ANGELS (-125) are a decent play at home behind Cobb. L.A. is 6-2 across its past eight with Cobb on the hill, including 1-1 against the Mariners. He won his outing against Seattle at Angel Stadium June 5.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The ANGELS -1.5 (+155) are worth a roll of the dice. The Halos won 12-5 in Cobb’s previous outing against the Mariners in Anaheim, and they have covered the run line in five of his past eight starts.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8.5 (-105) is the play. The Over has cashed in each of Cobb’s starts against the Mariners, and the Over is 5-1 in his previous six outings overall. The Over is 4-2 in Seattle’s past six outings with Kikuchi on the bump, too.

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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (48-43) travel to Angel Stadium Friday to start a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels (45-44). First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mariners lead 6-4.

RHP Chris Flexen is Seattle’s projected starter. Flexen is 8-3 with a 3.51 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 across 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K Saturday against the Angels.
  • Flexen is 1-0 against L.A. this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K in two starts.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .176/.237/.294 slash line, 6/3 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.

LHP Andrew Heaney is on the rubber for the Angels. Heaney is 5-6 with a 5.38 ERA (77 IP, 46 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K July 7 vs. the Boston Red Sox.
  • Heaney took a loss April 30 vs. the Mariners with a stat line of 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K in L.A.’s 7-4 loss at Seattle.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster: 82 at-bats with a .305/.380/.610 slash line, 22/9 K/BB, 6 HR and 12 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Mariners at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Angels -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-135) | Angels -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Mariners 6, Angels 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARINERS (+145) for a half unit since I “like” their run line and Seattle has a winning record in the division and vs. left-handed starters, whereas L.A. has a losing record vs. the AL West and are 30-30 against right-handed starters.

However, the Mariners are below-.500 in away games this season and Flexen has been far more effective in Seattle than on the road while the Angels are 26-20 in L.A. this year.

Also, if this game is close late, I expect the Mariners to pull it out since they have much better bullpen pitching (second in WAR and the Angels rank 22nd in WAR) and are 19-8 in one-run games this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the MARINERS +0.5 (+105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Seattle has a significant edge in the starting pitching department and this is a solid price point given that matchup.

Heaney’s pitching peripherals vs. Seattle are much worse than Flexen’s against L.A.

For instance, Heaney has a 6.41 FIP, .383 expected wOBA and .544 expected slugging percentage against active Mariners hitters.

While Flexen has a 4.05 FIP, .214 expected wOBA and .241 expected slugging percentage vs. current Angels batters.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because the angle I’m using to back the Mariners in this spot is their edge in starting and bullpen pitching, but the situational trends suggest an Over so I’m just going to stay away from the total.

The Angels are a top-7 lineup in the majors at home in the advanced hitting metrics of hard-hit rate, wOBA, OPS and wRC+ and they have an MLB-high 64.4% Over rate at home this season (29-16-1 O/U record).

On the other side, the Mariners have the second-highest Over rate this season on the road at 63.4% (26-15-1 O/U record).

Plus Heaney and Flexen went head-to-head in Seattle’s 7-4 April 30 victory and that went Over the 8-run total.

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