The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning square off in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on Monday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 2-1. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Maple Leafs regained home-ice advantage in Game 3, outlasting the Lightning in overtime on Saturday by a 4-3 score. Morgan Rielly scored the game-winner in OT. He is public enemy No. 1 in Tampa, not only for his GWG, but after what some fans saw as a questionable hit along the boards on Brayden Point.
The hit led to a donnybrook, which included the 1st-ever fight for Auston Matthews, as he took on Steven Stamkos. Nikita Kucherov and Ryan O’Reilly were also involved in a fracas.
The good news for the Lightning is that defenseman Victor Hedman was able to return in Game 3 after missing the last 5 periods of the series after an early undisclosed injury in Game 1.
Defenseman Erik Cernak remains sidelined, and he is question mark for Game 4 after the hit which led to a match penalty for Michael Bunting in Game 1. Bunting will serve the final 3-game of his suspension Monday.
Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner posted 2 assists in Game 3, and he is now up to 2 goals and 6 assists in the 1st 3 games of the series. He has multi-point games in each contest in the series. If you feel that will continue, he is listed at +140 to go Over 1.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook, while Under -1.5 points is a rather hefty -190.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:43 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Lightning -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200) | Lightning +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)
Samsonov coughed up 6 goals on 29 shots in Game 1, and he was hung out to dry frequently with several penalties leading to power-play opportunities (and goals) for the Lightning. He has tightened up in the last 2 games, both wins, stopping 56 of 61 shots while the offense has provided 11 goals of support.
Vasilevskiy yielded just 3 goals on 31 shots in the series opener, and 2 of those goals were on the man advantage, with another late in garbage time. He played well in Game 1. In the last 2 games, Vasilevskiy has allowed 11 goals on just 64 shots, good for just an .828 SV%.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 3
Moneyline
The LIGHTNING (-105) are the play in Game 4, as Tampa Bay looks for the bounce back.
The Maple Leafs (-115) have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, while the favorite is 7-3 in the last 10 in this series. So you’ll be going against the grain a little here. However, this is also a Toronto team which hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004, and it hasn’t won a Stanley Cup since 1967. It has a lot of hockey bad juju working against it, and while that might not sound like a good betting strategy to some, are you betting against the hockey gods? It hasn’t worked in over a half century for the Leafs.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Lightning +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward. Playing huge lines like that is just not a sound wagering strategy.
PASS.
Over/Under
The OVER 6.5 (-105) is the play yet again in Game 4.
The Over has cashed in each of the 1st 3 games of the series, and 9 straight meetings at Amalie Arena, so why stop now? The Over is also a healthy 13-3 in the previous 16 battles between these teams.
In addition, the Over has cashed at an 8-1 clip in the last 9 conference quarterfinals games for the Leafs, while also going 8-1 in the last 9 in the round for the Lightning. Keep going high on the total until further notice.
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