Manchester City welcomes Real Madrid to Etihad Stadium Wednesday. Kickoff in the 2nd leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinal is set for 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
At home in the 1st leg, Real Madrid struck first as F Vinícius Júnior scored in the 36th minute. Man City star M Kevin De Bruyne evened it up at 1 apiece in the 67th minute, and that is where it ended.
Real ended the game with 13 shots, 4 on target. City had 10 shots with 6 on target. The possession favored City with the road side owning the ball with 56% of the match.
City basically has the English Premier League locked up after a late-season push. It is led in scoring by F Erling Haaland, who has 36 goals in 33 league matches. It is 16-1-1 at home in league play.
Real sits second in La Liga, only trailing Barcelona. It has scored 70 goals and allowed just 32 in 34 league matches. F Karim Benzema has led the way with 17 goals in 21 games.
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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Manchester City -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Real Madrid +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Draw +333
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -175 | U: +125)
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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid picks and predictions
Prediction
Manchester City 1, Real Madrid 0
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
If there is any value, it is in this 90-minute battle ending in a draw. The two sides were within 0.2 expected goals in the 1st leg, and both the possession and shots were similar. City has simply been too good at home this season to bet against.
Real is 10-6-1 (6 losses) on the road in league play, so it hasn’t had much success away from home. It is a quality side with big-time players that have been in this position before, having won the Champions League last season.
The City moneyline is enticing, but it has no value. Ultimately PASS here.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+125).
City had 0.5 expected goals, and Real had 0.7 expected goals in the 1st leg. While the shots were there, the opportunities were not, and the quality chances were slim.
That’s what often happens when top-tier teams battle. Real allows 0.94 goals per game in league play and had 3 straight Champions League clean sheets coming into the first leg with City.
As for City, it allows 0.89 goals per game in league play and has 6 clean sheets in 11 Champions League matches. It has also scored just 1 goals in 3 of its last 5 Champions League battles.
Both defenses are elite and, at this value, take the UNDER 2.5 (+125).
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