Demian Maia and Gilbert Burns tangle in a welterweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN+ 28 – also called UFC Fight Night 170 – at the Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil Saturday. The card kicks off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns preview
Maia (28-9-0) checks into this bout on a 3-0 run, including a Round 3 submission win over Ben Askren in the main event on Oct. 26, 2019 in Singapore. Both of the Brazilian fighters know each other well, and it won’t matter this bout takes place in front of no fans due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The southpaw Maia, who is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu style fighter, has a three-inch advantage in height, and his reach extends one inch more than Burns’. The veteran has managed just 1.82 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.09 for Burns, but their Significant Strike Accuracy Percentage is nearly identical. This means Maia is going to eat a lot more punches in this match. Their Takedown Average is generally the same, too, although Burns is much better in Takedown Accuracy at 38.98% for Burns, to just 25.90% for Maia.
Burns (17-3-0) has an orthodox stance and striker fighting style. He enters on a four-bout winning streak, including a unanimous decision victory over Gunnar Nelson Sept. 28, 2019, on the Hermansson-Cannonier card. His record since joining UFC is a mix of UDs, submission wins and KO/TKOs, so he can beat you in a number of ways. He is definitely the more versatile fighter in this bout, and the No. 12 welterweight in the world is nine years younger than Maia (33 to 42), so he has the much fresher legs, too.
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Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns betting odds
Per BetMGM, Burns (-189) is a rather heavy favorite over Maia (+155) on the 2-way line. You’ll have to get a little creative, as risking nearly two times your potential return is not the way to go here, especially with a lack of potential rebound wagers due to a lack of other sporting events.
Burns to win by decision/technical decision (+140) pays a little better, while a win by KO/TKO or DQ (+425) or by submission (+550) pays much better. You’ll have to make a decision here, and Maia isn’t going to go away quietly. I think this one goes the distance, with Burns scratching out a win by decision/technical decision (+140). Play it safe there.
As such, playing the Over 2.5 rounds (-250) or the prop ‘Will the fight go the full 3 rounds?’ at YES (-185). In addition, taking Gilbert Burns On Points (+140) is also a nice addition to your bet slip.
It might be a slightly risky play, but a two-fighter parlay of Charles Oliveira (+115) vs. Kevin Lee and Burns (-189) has total odds of +228, going for a nice double Brazilian payout.
New to sports betting? A $10 parlay of Oliveira (+115) and Burns (-189) returns a potential profit of $22.80.
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