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The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun meet Sunday for Game 4 of their best-of-5 WNBA semifinals. Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn., is set for 5 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s WNBA odds around the Lynx vs. Sun odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Playoff series: Lynx lead 2-1; Sun won regular-season series 2-1
Minnesota took Game 3 as a 2.5-point road underdog 90-81 Friday to regain home-court advantage. F Napheesa Collier led the way with 26 points and 11 points — both game-highs. It was a nice bounceback for the All-Star forward who finished with a season-low 9 points in the Lynx’s 77-70 home win in Game 2 Tuesday — they covered as 4.5-point favorites in that one.
The Sun — who initially stole home-court advantage behind a 73-70 road win in Game 1 as 3.5-point underdogs Sept. 29 — were led by Brionna Jones‘ 21 points in Game 3. Actually all 5 starters scored in double figures, but there wasn’t much help from the bench, which was outscored 16-4 by Minnesota’s reserves.
The Over (151) cashed in Game 3, while the Under cashed in both games in the Twin Cities.
All 6 meetings between these 2 teams this season have been decided by single digits with an average margin of victory of 4.5 points per game.
The Lynx are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 4 meetings in the head-to-head series. The road team has actually won 6 of the past 8 meetings outright since Sept. 17, 2023. The road team is also 7-1 ATS in the past 8 in the series.
Lynx at Sun odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lynx +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Sun -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Lynx +1.5 (-110) | Sun -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 153.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Lynx at Sun picks and predictions
Prediction
Lynx 81, Sun 76
Moneyline
BACKING MINNESOTA (+100) straight up is slightly cheaper than backing Minnesota taking the 1.5 points and it’s a much better value vs. betting the spread.
For whatever reason, when these teams get together, the road team has won 6 of the past 8 meetings. That’s too strong to ignore, although it really would be fun to see a decisive Game 5. Still, the Lynx seem to have figured it out after their loss in Game 1. They’re the play here.
Against the spread
Backing the Lynx +1.5 (-110) makes absolutely no sense unless you’re absolutely convinced that the Sun are going to win by just 1 point. If you like Minnesota, then just bet it straight up for the much better value.
The Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 meetings and 8-2 in the past 10. Plus, they are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games. That includes a 78-76 win at Mohegan Sun Arena Sept. 17 as a 1.5-point underdog in the second-to-last game of the regular season.
PASS.
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Over/Under
OVER 153.5 (-110) is a lean in Game 4. Go with a half-unit play at best.
The Under cashed in both meetings in the Twin Cities, but the Over has hit in each of the previous 3 meetings in Connecticut dating back to May 23, including Game 3.
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