Tag: Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins odds predictions pick betting line spread

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Angels (60-85) and Minnesota Twins (77-68) meet Wednesday as they close out a 3-game series in Minneapolis. First pitch from Target Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 4-1

Minnesota banged out 3 HRs and won Tuesday’s game 10-5 after losing 6-2 on Monday. Three of the Twins’ 4 wins against Los Angeles this season have come by margins of 5 runs or more.

The Angels are 2-4 on a road trip that opened Friday against the Texas Rangers. Since Aug. 9, Los Angeles is just 5-14 outside Orange County.

Angels at Twins projected starters

RHP Jack Kochanowicz vs. RHP Zebby Matthews

Kochanowicz (2-4, 4.89 ERA) makes his 8th career start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 2.8 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 3-1 loss at Texas Rangers Thursday
  • Has never faced the Twins

Matthews (1-3, 7.36 ERA) is making his 6th career start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 22 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-0 loss at Kansas City Royals Friday
  • Has never faced the Angels

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Angels at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Angels +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Twins -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-125) | Twins -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Angels at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Angels 3

Moneyline

The hold is hard to beat here. PASS and look to leverage a Twins advantage on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

The Halos have lost 6 games since Aug. 30; 5 of those have been by multiple runs.

Ten hits (including 3 round-trippers) and 4 walks were a good sign for the Twins offense, one that has had its struggles of late.

Peg Matthews as pitching significantly better so far than what shows in his Boeing ERA. The rookie righty has been undone by a .366 batting average on balls in play.

In his rookie hurler duel, Matthews is backed by the better bullpen. BACK THE TWINS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under

Both clubs have similar profiles of being undervalued on the pitching/defense side of the equation. Analytics peg both the Angels and Twins as having yielded more runs than what would be expected.

With Matthews projected to be a solid contributor to an Under, and with both offenses having plenty of lackluster games up close in the rearview mirror, the UNDER 8.5 (+100) is the value play.

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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Angels (60-84) and Minnesota Twins (76-68) meet Tuesday for the 2nd game of a 3-game set. The opening delivery at Target Field is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 3-1

Los Angeles took Monday’s lid-lifter 6-2, winning the contest in wire-to-wire fashion. The victory marked just the Angels’ 5th away from home since Aug. 9 (5-13 straight up).

The Twins, who swept the Angels in Los Angeles April 26-28, have been flailing with the bats of late. Minnesota had just 5 base hits Monday and has logged 4 straight games with 5 hits or fewer. Since Aug. 28, the Twins have averaged 2.08 runs per game while slashing a .209/.254/.352 (.606 OPS).

Angels at Twins projected starters

RHP Griffin Canning vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Canning (5-12, 5.02 ERA) is lined up for his 28th start and 29th appearance. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 150 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 10-1 home victory vs. LA Dodgers Wednesday
  • Career vs. Twins: 0-1, 18.00 ERA (2 IP, 4 ER), 3 H, 4 BB, 1 K in 1 start, a 6-3 home loss in a 7-inning doubleheader May 20, 2021

Lopez (14-8, 4.05 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 162 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 4-3 victory at Tampa Bay Rays Thursday
  • Career vs. Angels: 2-1, 4.76 ERA (17 IP, 9 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 3 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Angels at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:38 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Angels +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Twins -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-105) | Twins -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Angels at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Angels 2

Moneyline

PASS: Look to find better value on the Run Line.

Run line/Against the spread

Lopez has significantly upped his ground-ball rate of late and has not allowed a home run since Aug. 12. The right-hander had a 20 2/3-inning scoreless streak broken in his last start; since that Aug. 12 date, he owns a tidy 1.35 ERA.

Canning has some shaky starts up close in the rearview mirror. Hard-hit balls have been a problem, and for the season, the Angels righty owns a 5.24 ERA on the road.

Minnesota has the superior bullpen, although that fact is obscured by some surface stats that belie some talent factors. The Minnesota starter and bullpen rate as better ground-ball inducers than their visiting counterparts in this one, and an outward breeze is in the forecast.

BACK MINNESOTA -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Both ball clubs profile as yielding more runs than deserved for the season. Both have certainly struggled in plating runs themselves in recent games. And the back ends of both bullpens are in good shape.

TAKE THE UNDER 8 (-115).

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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Angels (59-84) and Minnesota Twins (76-67) clash Monday as they swing into a 3-game series in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 3-0

The Twins, who swept the Angels in Los Angeles April 26-28, were themselves shut out over the weekend. The Twins scored just 2 runs in dropping 3 straight to the Kansas City Royals Friday-Sunday. Minnesota is back at home after a 2-5 road trip.

Los Angeles is continuing a road trip that opened with the club losing 3 of 4 at the Texas Rangers. Since Aug. 9, the Halos are just 4-13 away from home. Over that stretch, Los Angeles has logged a .586 OPS.

Angels at Twins projected starters

LHP Reid Detmers vs. RHP David Festa

Detmers (3-6, 5.87 ERA) is tabbed for his 14th start. He owns a 1.42 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 69 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 6-2 home loss in 10 innings vs. LA Dodgers Tuesday
  • Career vs. Twins: 0-2, 6.41 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.53 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 in 4 starts

Festa (2-5, 4.75 ERA) is making his 10th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 47 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 setback at Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
  • Owns 3.13 ERA in 2nd half of season
  • Has never faced Angels

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Angels at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Angels +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Twins -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-135) | Twins -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Angels at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Angels 3

Moneyline

Minnesota dominated Los Angeles back in April and is 5-1 with a plus-26 run differential over the last 6 series meetings.

With the Angels scuffling on the road and with this being Detmers’ 2nd MLB start after getting recalled from Triple-A Sept. 3, BACK THE TWINS (-190).

Festa has pitched better than his season ERA. The rookie allowed 7 runs in his July 3 debut. He has held opposing bats to a .622 OPS since.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. Both clubs have played more 1-run games than the MLB average.

Over/Under

The Under is 4-2 in Minnesota’s last 6 games.

Both ball clubs profile as yielding more runs than deserved for the season. Both have certainly struggled in plating runs themselves in recent games.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (66-85) and Minnesota Twins (73-78) meet Saturday to continue a 3-game set in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Los Angeles took Friday’s opener and leads the season series 3-1

Los Angeles allowed just 2 runs in a 4-2 Friday after clocking a 4-7 record and 5.42 ERA over its previous 11 games. The Angels are now 32-27 against under-.500 teams.

The Twins have fallen out of the playoff race by losing 23 of their last 34 games. Minnesota has hit just 25 home runs during that stretch and slashed a .231/.299/.349 (.649). The Twines have not homered in their last 4 games and have not won in their last 5.

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Angels at Twins projected starters

LHP Reid Detmers vs. RHP Joe Ryan

Detmers (6-5, 3.71 ERA) is tabbed for his 24th start of the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 119 IP.

  • Struck out 9 with 2 ER over 5 IP in his only other start against Minnesota Aug. 13
  • Has logged a 4,13 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in road starts
  • Has benefited from a .267 batting average on balls in play

Ryan (12-8, 3.61 ERA) has authored a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 137 IP across 25 starts.

  • Owns a 2.83 ERA over his last 7 games
  • Has pitched 14 2/3 IP over his last 2 starts
  • Has pitched through the lesser traffic of a .246 BABIP

Angels at Twins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Angels at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Angels 5, Twins 4

Money line

The Angels are a lean here — it’s where the analytics lead us. It just does not lead to a profit margin worth investigating unless the Los Angeles side gets to +120.

The Angels’ starting and relief pitching are open to some fatigue slide in this one.

PASS, unless the price on L.A. improves.

Run line/Against the spread

Too much juice: LOOK ELSEWHERE.

Over/Under

Subsurface analytics point to better days ahead for both offenses, and they find the starting pitchers’ lines to be suspect. A batter’s breeze — blowing out to right field — is in the forecast.

The OVER 7.5 (+105) is the strongest play in Saturday’s Los Angeles-Minnesota tilt.

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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (42-56) host the Los Angeles Angels (47-49) Saturday at Target Field for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split the first two meetings with L.A. winning the series opener 3-2 and Minnesota taking Friday’s game, 5-4.

Season series: Angels lead 3-2.

LHP Patrick Sandoval is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA (63 IP, 27 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over 10 starts and three relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 9 K Sunday against the Seattle Mariners.
  • 2021 road stats: 1-1 with a 3.96 ERA (25 IP, 11 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB rate in four starts and one relief outing.

RHP Jose Berrios is on the rubber for the Twins. He is 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA (114 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-3, with 6 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K Monday at the Chicago White Sox.
  • Berrios beat L.A. May 20 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Minnesota’s 6-3 road win.
    • vs. Angels on the current roster (49 PA): 4.03 FIP with a .200 batting average, .293 wOBA, .453 expected slugging percentage, 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-185) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Twins 5, Angels 2

Money line (ML)

TAKE the TWINS (-130) because Berrios has pitched better at home than on the road throughout his career and we have a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money backing Minnesota.

Berrios is 32-19 at home in his career, compared to 23-23 on the road. He has a 3.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB at home against a 4.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB on the road.

Also, L.A.’s lineup is far less productive on the road. The Angels score 4.04 runs per game on the road, compared to 5.53 runs per game at home. They’ve hit 30 fewer home runs on the road in just two fewer games and have a .696 road OPS compared to an .819 home OPS.

Furthermore, more than 80% of the cash wagered is on the Twins but nearly 60% of the public is backing the Angels, according to Pregame.com. Generally, it’s smarter to follow the money in sports betting, especially when it’s contrary to the crowd.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I’m leaning toward the Under in Angels-Twins and Minnesota has the fourth-worst cover rate as a home favorite at 10-24 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

We’ve already discussed L.A.’s hitting futility away from Angel Stadium and Berrios’ effectiveness at home but there are a couple other factors as to why I “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-115) for a half unit.

First of all, Sandoval’s pitching peripherals are fairly impressive. He grades in the 73rd percentile or better in hard-contact rate, EV, expected wOBA, xSLG, whiff rate and chase rate.

Plus this is also a “pros vs. Joes” situation with more than 80% of the money on the Under but more than three-quarters of the public backing the Over.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins pitching breakdown and expert picks

Geoff Clark dives into Friday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins meeting to see if the Twins can bounce back from Thursday’s loss.

The Los Angeles Angels (47-48) and Minnesota Twins (41-56) continue their four-game set at Target Field Friday with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Angels lead 3-1.

RHP Alex Cobb is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 over 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 9-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners Saturday.
  • Cobb beat Minnesota May 20 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K in L.A.’s 7-1 victory.
    • vs. Twins on the current roster (67 PA): 4.13 FIP with a .250 batting average (BA), .312 wOBA, .529 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 14.9 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP J.A. Happ is on the mound for the Twins. He is 5-5 with a 6.15 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 17 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 7 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 4 K Sunday at the Detroit Tigers.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster (60 PA): 6.64 FIP with a .283 BA, .389 wOBA, .434 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 89.6 mph EV.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+120) | Twins +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Angels 8, Twins 5

Money line (ML)

I’m all about fading Happ and BETTING the ANGELS (-125) because Happ’s advanced pitching numbers paint an even grimmer picture than his basic numbers and this L.A. lineup hits lefties very well.

For instance, Happ grades in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, xSLG, EV, barrel rate, whiff rate and K% and has the fifth-highest contact rate of all starters with a minimum of 50 IP. Also, the Angels rank in the top-five of baseball in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against lefties.

Finally, L.A. is getting “sharp” action, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Angels from slight underdogs on the opening line (-105) to favorites.

The “pros and Joes” are aligned on this one in the betting market, which isn’t typically an ideal spot to bet into, but the House moving the line in L.A.’s favor gives me confidence the ANGELS (-125) are the right side.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since L.A. has been predictably terrible at covering the spread as a road favorite with a 5-11 ATS record and a minus-1.4 run line margin, since the Angels are consistently overvalued in the market because of their star power.

I’d take a stab at L.A.’s run line if it were north of +140 but the bullpen isn’t reliable enough to back the Angels on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-110) for a half unit since the total is taking “sharp” action toward the Over and these teams have a combined 21-9 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

Angels-Twins opened with a 9.5-run total but the market is barreling into the Over, instigating a line move. In addition, these ball clubs have the two highest Over rates in the majors.

My hesitancy with backing the Over is because it’s an overly obvious play. The Twins sending DH Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday also weakens their lineup.

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Thursday’s best bets for Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

Geoff Clark makes his best bets for Thursday’s Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins matchup

The Los Angeles Angels (46-48) visit the Minnesota Twins (41-55) Thursday to start a four-game series at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Angels lead 2-1.

LHP Andrew Heaney is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 5-7 with a 5.56 ERA (81 IP, 50 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 over 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K over 4 IP Friday against the Seattle Mariners.
  • Heaney picked up a no-decision earlier this year against Minnesota (April 16) with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K in L.A.’s 10-3 victory.
    • vs. Twins on the current roster (40 PA): 8.20 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .401 wOBA, .551 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 92.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kenta Maeda makes his 16th start for the Twins. Maeda is 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Minnesota’s 5-4 loss at the Detroit Tigers Saturday.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster (22 PA): 4.77 FIP, .158 BA, .262 wOBA, .397 xSLG, 31.8 K% and 84.7 mph EV.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Angels +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Twins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-150) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Twins 6, Angels 1

Money line (ML)

GIMME the TWINS (-150) for 1 unit because we are getting some awkward “reverse line movement” in the betting market, Minnesota has an edge in the starting pitching matchup and the Twins are productive against lefties.

First of all, Minnesota opened as roughly a -135 favorite on the money line but it has been steamed down to the current number despite nearly 60% of the cash wagered being on L.A., according to Pregame.com.

One of the biggest red flags when handicapping sports is when the House makes the more popular side cheaper. The most obvious explanation is that the oddsmakers want more pro-Angels money.

Second, Maeda has been much more effective at home than on the road this season. For example, Maeda has a 1.93 FIP and .292 wOBA at home compared to a 4.87 road FIP and .345 road wOBA. He hasn’t allowed a home run in Minnesota while giving up 11 on the road.

Finally, the Twins lineup has hit left-handed pitching fairly well despite what their 11-22 record vs. lefty starters indicates. Minnesota ranks in the top-10 of wOBA, wRC+, OPS and hard-contact rate against lefty pitching.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the Twins -1.5 (+125) given how disappointing they’ve been this season. Minnesota is 10-23 ATS as a home favorite and an MLB-worst 15-31 ATS when playing outside of the division.

The first three Angels-Twins meetings this year were decided by at least 3 runs so there’s a high likelihood the spread doesn’t come into play but I’d need Minnesota’s run line to be priced north of +150 to wager on it.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) for a quarter unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that is barrelling into the Over but there’s a “line freeze” so oddsmakers are comfortable with their Angels-Twins total.

Almost 90% of the money is on the Over since the Over cashed in each of the first three head-to-head meetings this season but the total hasn’t budged from the opener.

Also, these teams have a combined 22-8 O/U record when these starters take the mound; however, that intel is baked into the projected total and I expect Maeda to give the Twins a quality start Thursday.

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