This is the sixth year I’ve ranked every NFL starting quarterback and in the past, the order has been based on how I graded a quarterback in six categories: Accuracy, arm strength, athleticism, pocket presence, field vision and pre-snap acumen.
In hindsight, it was an unnecessarily convoluted way to evaluate a quarterback. As difficult as it is to properly do — NFL teams, with their unlimited resources, are still trying to figure out the process — I think we complicate the exercise by over-compartmentalizing everything that goes into playing the position. The most simplified way to look at quarterbacking is that it’s a two-part operation: The thought process leading up to the pass attempt and then the throw itself. But of course not all NFL plays go as planned; often they lead to pass attempts (or scrambles) that require a quarterback to go beyond the structure inherent in every play call and create on their own.
For this year’s rankings, I’ve viewed every quarterback evaluated below through that lens. After studying the film of every projected starter, I gave each of them a grade from 1-100 in three categories:
- Process: Everything that leads up to a throw, which includes the quarterback’s pre-snap routine, pocket management and reading of the defense.
- Throws: You could also use the term “arm talent” for this one. The grade is based on both accuracy and arm strength. Can this quarterback get the ball to his intended target no matter where it is on the field?
- Creativity: A quarterback who can run his offense efficiently is to be valued, but what happens when things don’t go as planned? And does the quarterback possess unique ability — such as Lamar Jackson’s mobility or Drew Brees’ computer-like processing — that allows his coaches to employ tactics that others cannot?
These grades were based solely on film study. I don’t mean to discount the value of quantitative analysis, which can just as valuable, if not more so. But there are plenty of stat-based rankings out there; that’s just not what these are.
Every year, I have to decide how much projecting I should do. After all, the players I watched on film in 2019 aren’t necessarily going to be the players we see in 2020. I ultimately decided on what I would characterize as a “conservative” projection of what I think we’ll see this season. For instance, I don’t think Kyler Murray played like the 16th best quarterback in 2019, but I also believe he’ll be out-play that ranking in 2020.
With all that out of the way, let’s rank some quarterbacks…
One thing I have in common with Bears GM Ryan Pace: There was a time not too long ago when I thought Trubisky had a chance to develop into a decent quarterback. He just had to speed up his processing time and shore up his accuracy. Well … three years later and Trubisky still has the same problems, which suggests that it’s never going to happen for him. Unfortunately for Chicago, Pace seems to be the only person in the city who hasn’t figured that out yet. The Bears are still trying to make Trubisky a thing and their optimism is based mostly on his unsustainable play under pressure and production outside of the pocket during the 2018 season. And even then, Trubisky was still the weak link on the offense.
When we last saw Tyrod Taylor as a starter, he was having a hard time completing passes for a Browns offense that eventually took off after he was replaced by a rookie. There may have been a time when Taylor was a viable starter in the right system that worked around his volatility in the pocket, but it’s been years since we’ve seen it actually work out on the field. With waning athleticism and a deep ball that fails him more often than not, Taylor’s days as a starter are never coming back. He is, however, an adequate placeholder for Chargers’ first-round pick Justin Herbert.
Before the 2019 NFL Draft, I predicted Gardner Minshew would be a Week 1 starter for a team at some point in his career. I did not expect it to happen this soon, though. Nor do I believe Minshew is a viable long-term answer in Jacksonville. The biggest issue is accuracy. It’s not that Minshew is inaccurate, but he isn’t precise enough to overcome his physical shortcomings. And while the second-year quarterback has shown the ability to get through his progressions, he’s not entirely comfortable in a tight pocket and he’ll go into panic mode at the first sign of pressure. Sometimes it works out; other times it leads to disaster. Minshew did, however, find the perfect market to start his career in. As long he keeps wearing cutoffs, chugging beers and throwing touchdowns every now and then, Jaguars fans will continue to love him. If Blake Bortles got five years in Jacksonville, Minshew might be able to hold onto the starting job for the duration of his rookie deal.
Drew Lock has been seen as a big-armed, gun-slinging prospect, so you’d expect him to do well when asked to take deeper drops and chuck the ball downfield. But that wasn’t really the case during his successful stint as the Broncos starter late last season. Both the tape and numbers suggest he was at his best when the ball was coming out quickly. When Lock had to hold onto the ball longer and go from one read to the next, that’s when we saw the inconsistent play that defined his time in college. That will have to change if Lock is going to cash in on his potential. He’s just not precise enough to make it in a quick passing offense.
After he obliterated the NCAA record books while playing in a pro-style(ish) offense at LSU, Joe Burrow looks like a plug-and-play prospect. I’m not so sure that will be the case. Burrow was so good last season because he was the smartest player on the field at all times. That won’t be the case in 2020, obviously. So while Burrow’s mind gets up to speed, I’m expecting a lot of growing pains early on. Burrow will also have to adjust to the literal speed of the game. He won’t be able to outrun pass rushers as easily as he did in Baton Rouge, and those tight windows he made a living throwing into in 2019 will close a lot faster. The sack and interception numbers could get ugly during what should be a year-long adjustment period for the rookie.
I’ll start out by saying one nice thing about Josh Allen: He is a tremendously fun football player and the NFL would be more entertaining if he made the leap Bills fans are convinced is coming. There just isn’t any reason to believe it is coming, unfortunately. Allen’s progress from Year 1 to Year 2 was incremental, at best. He was a bit more accurate, but that’s never going to be his strength. He didn’t look *completely* clueless when reading defenses from the pocket but his process did require an extra second or two to complete, which explains why Cole Beasley was so excited about Allen actually trying to throw receivers open in Bills camp. Allen’s biggest perceived strength is his arm, but his issues with the deep ball are well documented and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll had to dial back the deeper throws before the passing offense started to find some success. I don’t know if that’s a sustainable business model for such a volatile passer.
So maybe Daniel Jones wasn’t the worst draft pick ever. If you’re a For the Win reader, you would not have been surprised by Jones’ competence in Year 1. What we wrote directly after the draft lined up well with what we saw out of Dave Gettleman’s anointed one: Jones is a smart, fearless pocket passer whose bravery can lead to some big plays — for both teams. With more reps, Jones’ process should naturally speed up but he’s going to have to improve his spatial awareness if he’s going to cut down on the fumbles. Limited arm talent puts a ceiling on Jones’ potential; but in the right system, Jones could put together a Kirk Cousins-like career. I don’t know if Jason Garrett’s system is the right one, though.
When I watched Sam Darnold during the offseason, I expected to like him a lot more than I did. Maybe it’s the Adam Gase effect, but Darnold was not nearly as aggressive as he should be given his skillset. It was all quick passes not too far down the field and improvised play outside of the pocket … with little in between. That leaves two problems: (1) Darnold is not nearly accurate enough to live in the quick game world like, say, a Tom Brady and (2) those sandlot plays are not reliable. If Darnold is going to reach his peak, he’ll have to grow more comfortable going through progressions in the pocket and making appropriately aggressive throws downfield.
This is probably the first big surprise of the list and I’m admittedly doing a lot of projecting here, because Dwayne Haskins’ numbers suggest he was one of the worst rookie quarterbacks we’ve seen in the last decade. But there was clear growth from the 2019 first-round pick later in the year. The game seemed to slow down for him at the end of the season, and that’s when you could see the traits that convinced Washington to draft him in the first round start to show up on film. Haskins has an impossibly strong arm and, unlike other big-armed prospects, he actually knows how to use it. What stood out to me was Haskins’ ball placement. While traditional accuracy isn’t necessarily a strength for the Ohio State prospect (as in fitting the ball into a tight window), he has a clear understanding of where to put the ball in order to keep it out of danger. Later on in the season, he started to throw with more anticipation and, unsurprisingly, his number vastly improved. With that combination of arm strength, poise in the pocket and a smart mental approach, Haskins has a bright future in this league.
While scouts tend to over-value arm strength, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear example of why it matters so much. It might be the one thing that separates Patrick Mahomes and Fitzpatrick, who is one of the more creative passers in the NFL. But unlike Mahomes, Fitzpatrick doesn’t really have the arm talent or athleticism to regularly make the plays that the reigning Super Bowl MVP makes routinely. I’d also say that Mahomes is a bit more comfortable in the pocket. But Fitzpatrick has that same feel for the game that makes the Cheifs star so damn good. The problem is, Fitzpatrick doesn’t seem to realize (or care) that he doesn’t have enough arm strength to attempt some of the things he does. He’s going to make that throw or try to run for that first down anyway. When it comes off, that’s when we get Fitzmagic. When it doesn’t … it’s easy to see why no team has been willing to commit to him long-term.
If we could somehow infiltrate Teddy Bridgewater’s mind and flip the aggressiveness switch on, he’d probably rank much higher on this list. He’s a smart quarterback who knows his way around the pocket, but he just leaves too many opportunities on the field to have any confidence in him leading an offense. Bridgewater knows his limits as a passer better than anyone, which allows him to avoid negative plays, but his aversion to making mistakes actively hurts his offense. He gives up on plays too early, opting to check the ball down and live to play another down. My hope is that playing in Carolina, where he won’t have much support from his defense, will force Teddy to take more chances while playing catch up on the scoreboard. Maybe then he’ll realize that it’s OK to throw some interceptions when the trade-off is more explosive plays. If that happens, Bridgewater’s second act will be a lot more enjoyable.
It’s getting harder to argue that Jared Goff’s success in 2017 and 2018 wasn’t mostly a product of Sean McVay’s system. Last season, when that system wasn’t springing receivers open downfield and the offensive line wasn’t providing Goff with time to come up with a Plan B, his weaknesses were exposed. A talented thrower, Goff just doesn’t process things quickly enough to beat a defense if his first option is taken away. He’s got a longer delivery and doesn’t react quickly to what he’s seeing, making it difficult for McVay to increase his usage of quick passing concepts, which would have helped to offset the decline of the Rams offensive line. Goff is still young and has plenty of time to develop in his areas of weakness, but we haven’t seen any evidence suggesting that development is coming. Until it happens, he’ll be little more than a product of his environment.
It’s tempting to just pin all of Baker Mayfield’s issues on the Browns’ poor offensive line and Freddy Kitchens’ lack of competence. But the issues that held him back were ones that showed up on his tape in college. Namely, a lack of poise in the pocket that often led to questionable footwork and a tendency to abandon the pocket prematurely. And when a quarterback is consistently putting himself into high-variance situations, we should expect a lot of a variance in his performance. We definitely saw that from Baker. There were some high-level throws, but far too often they were offset by mind-numbingly bad mistakes. Mayfield is undoubtedly talented, but the hurdle between him and consistently high-level play is going to be a tough one to clear.
Everything that I said about Jared Goff can be applied to Jimmy Garoppolo. Actually, that’s not true. Garoppolo is a more talented thrower and his quick release has allowed Kyle Shanahan to lean heavily on quick-hitting throws, which limits the thinking his still-inexperienced quarterback has to do in the pocket. The longer Garoppolo has to hold onto the ball, the worse he gets. Luckily, he has a coach who understands his limitations and has built an offense that highlights his strengths. Sometimes, like in the Super Bowl, it’s not enough to protect Jimmy G from himself; but those times have become increasingly rare. And as long a Shanahan is calling the plays, a quarterback like Garoppolo will be enough to keep the offense humming along.
We’re nearly four years removed from Derek Carr’s flirtation with the 2016 MVP race and the narrative is still the same. Carr has been gifted with a talented right arm and he, by all accounts, is a smart, studious quarterback who puts in the work. He just has one crippling problem: He’s deathly afraid of being hit. As a human being who tries to avoid pain at all costs, I can’t blame him. But it’s not a trait you want when playing quarterback in the NFL. The hits are part of the job, and the quarterbacks who are comfortable with the prospect of taking them tend to do better than the ones who aren’t. Because Carr belongs in that second group, his play will almost always reflect the job his offensive line is doing protecting the pocket. During the 2016 season, the Raiders boasted the best line in the league, and Carr flourished. The same thing happened during his hot streak in the middle of 2019, which padded his numbers for the rest of the season; but things took a turn when the line stopped given Carr all the time in the world.
Based on the contract they gave him, the Titans seemed to be convinced that the Ryan Tannehill we saw in the second half of 2019 will be the Ryan Tannehill we see going forward. Small sample sizes aside, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about that. It’s unlikely that Tannehill will be as good on play-action passes as he was last season, and he’s probably not going to be the best quarterback under pressure for a second consecutive year and it’s hard to believe that the Titans receivers will turn nearly every accurate deep ball he throws into a completion, as they did last season. When I watched Tannehill play in 2019, he looked a lot like the guy we saw in Miami: There aren’t any clear strengths to his game but there also aren’t a lot of weaknesses outside of a penchant for taking sacks. As we saw last season, Tannehill is a viable starter who can look pretty darn good if everything around him goes right.
Kyler Murray doesn’t make sense. How can somebody that small possess such a big arm? I don’t know how it works, but I also don’t care. I could watch this little dude throw footballs all day. And it’s not just the distance he can launch a ball, either. Murray is a creative passer who knows how to adjust the trajectory and tempo of his passes to avoid defenders and get the ball to its intended target. And, sure, Murray is not the most refined quarterback when operating out of the pocket, but he’s right where you’d expect a second-year quarterback with only two full seasons as a starter under his belt to be. Eventually, he’ll stop taking comically long sacks and he’ll grow more comfortable in the pocket. When that happens — and it could be as soon as this season — Murray will be considered a perennial MVP candidate.
I’m gonna be honest: I had no idea where to put Cam Newton. There just isn’t a perfect — or even good — spot to put him. There is no chance this ranking ends up looking good by the end of the season. Either Newton is the same quarterback we saw before injuries wiped out half of his 2018 season and his entire 2019 campaign, in which case he’ll easily outplay this ranking, or injuries will continue to sabotage his career and Newton will not be a quarterback worthy of a spot in the top half of any quarterback rankings. Based on all of the information available to us, I believe we’ll see a healthy Cam in 2020. At least early on. And now that he’s with a competent coaching staff — though his supporting cast isn’t any better — NFL fans may finally appreciate his unmatched poise in the pocket and his severely underrated Football IQ.
Kirk Cousins’ evolution has been a bit odd. He’s certainly a better player than he was when we last saw him in Washington, but he hasn’t really gotten much better in the areas for which he’s been criticized in the past. He’s just gotten really good at all of the things he’s always done well. Cousins processes information in a hurry, he’s mostly accurate and his ability to push the ball downfield continues to improve. The highly-paid quarterback may not elevate the players around him; but, at this point in his career, he’s not going to waste the talent he has around him, either. That hasn’t always been the case.
There probably should have been a “consistency” rating involved in these rankings, because that’s really what’s holding Carson Wentz back from cracking the top-10. Bouts of inaccuracy and strange decision-making are too common. But as Wentz gets more reps, I think those issues will solve themselves. And everything else about his game suggests he’s not far from breaking into the top tier. Wentz is tough in the pocket, can make just about every throw there is (which makes it more infuriating when he misses the easy ones) and he consistently creates outside the structure of the Eagles offense. I’ll spare you the takes on his health and how well-liked he is in the locker room.
The Ben Roethlisberger we saw in 2018 would obviously rank a bit higher on this list, but is it realistic to expect to ever see that player again? As was pointed out in this year’s Football Outsiders Alamanac, the Steelers quarterback is trying to do something only one other quarterback (Vinny Testaverde) has ever done: Regain a starting position after attempting fewer than 100 passes in a season after the age of 35. Barring a training camp injury, Ben is going to add his name to that list. But will he play well coming off a major elbow injury? At this point in his career, Roethlisberger has the mental acuity to work around a limited arm, but it was those magical plays where he’d shake off a defender and throw a dime downfield that made him a special quarterback. If he can still make those plays, this ranking won’t look good by the end of the season.
Matthew Stafford did not move up very far in these rankings compared to last year, when I had him as the league’s 12th-best quarterback. Yes, before his injury, he was putting up top-5 numbers while getting back to his gun-slinger ways but I don’t think he himself improved all that much. The offense around him just got better and played more to his strengths. The tape still shows a strong-armed quarterback who can occasionally be overwhelmed with what the defense is doing after the snap and one who still misses a few too many throws due to inconsistent mechanics. When he gets hot with his deep ball, as he did in 2019, Stafford is capable of looking like one of the NFL’s best. Maybe 2020 will be the year he manages to do put together one of those stretches for an entire 16-game schedule.
Matt Ryan’s 2019 season was the inverse of what we saw out of Stafford. Those big-time throws he had been making since the 2016 season faded away and it showed in his advanced metrics. But Ryan’s film is still as impressive as ever. He’s as sharp as any quarterback in the league — before and after the snap — and he can still put the ball right where he wants it, provided the throw doesn’t require too much arm strength. If his luck on deep-to-intermediate throws regresses to the mean, Ryan should bounce back and have another big year that will pad his Hall of Fame case.
The general consensus on Philip Rivers by the end of 2019 was that the veteran quarterback’s arm was shot and his days as a good starter were nearing their end. Rivers nearly leading the league in interceptions — thank you, Jameis — probably had a lot to do with that perception. Let’s face it: A lot of us were not watching Chargers games, outside of the weekly Red Zone coverage of another failed two-minute offense. Hell, Chargers fans barely watch the games. Anyway, I’m here to report that Rivers’ demise was greatly exaggerated. Sure, he’s lost a little arm strength, but the old man can still make all most of the throws and his mind is as strong as ever. As for this upcoming season, Rivers will get to play behind a good offensive line for the first time in what feels like forever. I would not be surprised if Rivers hangs around the MVP conversation throughout the season.
Is he washed? Perhaps. But a washed Tom Brady is still a top-10 quarterback. And his decline won’t be so obvious now that he’s not the most talented player on his own offense. He had to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Patriots offense in 2019, which highlighted his growing issues with accuracy. He also seemed to be less willing to stand in the pocket and take a big hit. Lucky for him, he had plenty of accuracy and poise to spare. Now that he has a handful of receivers capable of getting open without the aid of schematic magic, Brady’s computer-like mind and near-perfect timing should allow him to return to his pre-2018 form.
No matter where I placed Aaron Rodgers on this list, a sect of NFL Twitter was going to be mad about it. If I placed him too high, the stat nerds would have dunked on me with an onslaught of charts and stats showing that Rodgers’ accuracy and overall production have both dropped off since his last MVP award. If I ranked him too low, the film guys would have sent me all of those big-time throws Rodgers made last year in leading Green Bay to a 13-3 record. As is always the case, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Rodgers is still capable of brilliance, but we just don’t see it as often as we once did. Hence this ranking, which will probably manage to get me in trouble with both sides of the debate.
Good luck finding a major weakness in Dak Prescott’s game. That’s especially difficult after 2019, with Dak speeding up his processing time and shoring up his accuracy. Of the younger generation of quarterbacks, the Cowboys star might be the most well-rounded passer of the bunch. He’s sharp before and after the snap. He is comfortable going his progressions from a tight pocket. He pushes the ball downfield but is willing to settle for a check down when the situation calls for it. He’s just a complete quarterback. Jerry Jones’ reluctance to pay Dak says more about him than it does his quarterback.
Yes, Drew Brees has a weak arm, but the notion that his weak arm prevents him from pushing the ball downfield isn’t backed by any tangible evidence. The numbers and film show that he’s still one of the most accurate deep-ball passers in the league. That’s made possible by Brees’ other-worldly timing. He’s never late on a throw, so that extra power isn’t necessary. That timing is really what makes Brees so good. His eyes and feet are always in the right place and he never seems to be in a hurry. All of that contributes to his record-breaking accuracy. Combine that with Sean Payton’s play-calling and a stacked supporting cast, and it’s easy to see how he’s still playing at a high level into his 40s.
That’s not a typo. Lamar Jackson forced me to break my scale for creativity. It was the only way to capture the wholesale effect his unique running ability has on Baltimore’s offense and opposing defenses. As for throwing the ball, Lamar is well ahead of schedule in that aspect of his game. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his progress as a pocket passer, as evidenced by the criticism he heard after the playoff loss. During that game, Lamar showed he was able to diagnose defenses designed to fool him and find open receivers. Unfortunately for him, his receivers let him down more often than not. While the 23-year-old MVP doesn’t possess an overly strong arm, he is a gifted passer who can change arm angles without losing much accuracy. Accuracy may not be his greatest strength, but he’s more than accurate enough — even by top quarterback standards.
If not for Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson would be getting a lot more love for the brilliant start to his career. Some day soon — and it may require a breakup with Bill O’Brien — Watson will get his recognition. And as good as the Texans QB already is, he still has a lot of room for improvement. That improvement starts with Watson making quicker decisions in the pocket, which will lead to fewer sacks. But there’s a tough balance to strike there, as Watson’s aggression is what makes him so good. No matter how well the defense has a play covered, the big-play potential is always there. And it’s not like he’s some mad bomber, either. Watson’s career completion rate of 66.8% and 8.1 yards-per-attempt put him in rare company in terms of efficiency. We’re watching the start of a Hall of Fame career — and this is without the support of a strong front office, which has almost always been a pre-requisite for the development of a legit franchise quarterback.
For once, let’s try to talk about Russell Wilson without mentioning the Seattle coaching staff and its refusal to let him take over games before the fourth quarter. Much like the Seahawks on a typical Sunday, we’re not off to a good start. Anyway, Wilson throws the prettiest, most catchable ball in the NFL. It floats through the air for what seems like an eternity before gently landing into the hands of a receiver who doesn’t have to break stride. And it doesn’t matter how Wilson is throwing the ball — from the pocket, rolling to his right, sprinting to his left, etc. — it always hits its target on time. Wilson will still bail from a clean pocket and run into some sacks but if that’s the cost of an otherwise well-rounded approach, then so be it. The good greatly outweighs whatever bad you can find in Wilson’s game.
Forget about superlatives, I’ve run out of criticisms for Patrick Mahomes’ game. The stats didn’t reflect it, but the NFL’s best quarterback took another giant leap forward in 2019. His comfort in the pocket grew exponentially. He’s found new ways to buy time for receivers to get open without putting unnecessary stress on his offensive line. As his Football IQ continues to grow, his physics-defying arm seems to be getting stronger. We’ve almost grown numb to the ridiculous plays, which Mahomes makes with such ease. He is simply the most talented quarterback this league has ever seen. And, in the hands of Andy Reid, we can be confident that he’ll always have a good support system around him. It’s obviously early in the game, but the odds of him becoming the greatest quarterback in NFL history can’t be that long.
