Tag: Lions Key Matchup

Lions vs. Seahawks: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Seahawks: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football

It’s a beautiful morning as dawn just begins to creep up and the steam from my coffee wakes the body. The light from my laptop is brighter than the slowly rising sun as I write this. It’s Lions football day, as odd as that still seems.

For years, the Lions didn’t get primetime attention. As someone who typically goes to bed around 9:30, that suited me fine. Now that the team is successful and, dare I say, high-profile, it’s a fun new adjustment to earning these nontraditional starting times.

Here’s what’s rattling around my Lions brain about tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown with the unbeaten Seattle Seahawks as I enjoy the morning coffee.

Why I think the Lions will win

The matchup of the Lions rushing offense against the Seahawks dilapidated defensive front should be one Detroit can exploit. Even with Frank Ragnow out, and that definitely hurts the Lions’ run offense, the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should still find some room to run. Montgomery especially should be effective because of his ability to power through the first contact; Seattle’s linebackers and safeties are solid, but they’re not the types who can slow down what Montgomery offers in the B-gaps and certainly not with top DTs Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams out.

Aidan Hutchinson should be able to continue his Defensive Player of the Year front-runner status and impact the Seattle offense. Charles Cross is a good left tackle, but the Seahawks will start Stone Forsythe at right tackle and old friend Laken Tomlinson at left guard. Those are both prime attack points for Hutchinson, and DL coach Terrell Williams has shown he can vary alignments to get No. 97 in favorable matchups. This could be a big night for Levi Onwuzurike and his power-based game on the outside, too. Seattle has been vulnerable to the “heavy” EDGEs who can reset the line against the run.

The ability to win on both sides of the ball on first downs should set up the Lions to capitalize on third downs. Detroit has been very good on third downs on offense (45.2%–4th in the league) and defense (25.8%–3rd). About the only area the Seahawks offense has struggled is on third downs (36.8%–19th) and that’s because they’re not great at running the ball on first downs (3.6 yards per attempt–23rd). As long as LBs Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone remain sharp against the run, the Lions defense can set up some third-and-longs that give the pass rush some chances to create big plays.

What worries me about the Seahawks

This is a good football team. I know, I know–they’ve played a cakewalk schedule. They’ve also feasted on that schedule, which is exactly what a good team does in playing inferior opponents.

Lesser Seattle teams than this edition have given the Lions fits lately, including last year. They play their own way and tend to dictate how the game flow goes, and that’s been a problem for this Lions coaching staff. These are the exact types of games where Detroit OC Ben Johnson gets away from basics and tries to prove things he doesn’t need to. They’re the types where Lions DC Aaron Glenn winds up being too reactive and doesn’t stick to his guns in man coverage and creative pass rushes. Geno Smith has a way of doing that to opposing teams.

I worry very much that the Lions will miss safety Brian Branch in this one. Seattle has three dangerous wide receivers, and Smith has proven he plays no favorites in getting the ball where it needs to go. Likely Branch replacement Brandon Joseph has struggled with tackling going back to college, and now he gets his primetime baptism with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?! Suboptimal, to say the least.

Back to the recent success Seattle has had against the Lions for a minute…

I’m a believer that those sorts of things build upon themselves. Success begets success. Smith specifically is a very difficult matchup for the Lions because he’s a lot like Goff–smart, precise, flexible of mind and target–but he’s also capable of running a little if that door opens. He’s got tremendous confidence in his teammates and their ability to overcome challenges and win, and they’ve done it before in Detroit.

Final score prediction

I expect a tightly played, back-and-forth game between two teams that look like they could meet again in late January. The Lions will win if they’re better in the red zone and avoid giving up big plays. Alas, I just don’t feel it playing out that way.

Seahawks 23, Lions 21

Rams new wave of pass rushers is a new challenge for the Lions

The Rams wave of pass rushers is a new challenge for the Lions offensive line from the Aaron Donald years

For years, Aaron Donald has been the focal point for all blocking against the Los Angeles Rams defense. Donald earned that respect, racking up eight All-Pro nods and three AP Defensive Player of the Year honors in his 10 seasons.

Donald is now retired, and the Rams defense will look markedly different without him in the middle. Los Angeles has smartly chosen not to try and directly replace the surefire Hall of Famer with just one player. That will make a very new challenge for the Detroit Lions offensive line in Week 1.

The Rams hit on two rookie pass rushers a year ago. OLB Byron Young and DL Kobie Turner, both taken in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, combined for 17 sacks and over 100 QB pressures. Turner actually had more sacks than Donald did (9 to 8) in 2023.

To that solid duo, the Rams added their top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. First-round EDGE Jared Verse and second-round DT Braden Fiske were both very accomplished pass rushers at Florida State a year ago. They’ll mix in with the impressive rookie tandem from last year to provide a very different look than the Lions saw in Detroit’s playoff win in January.

The Lions, of course, have the best all-around offensive line in the league. Detroit does have changes at guard, with Graham Glasgow moving to the left side to accommodate veteran Pro Bowl RG Kevin Zeitler. They are surrounded by perhaps the best tackle tandem in the league, with All-Pro center Frank Ragnow ensconced between them.

It should make for a great battle. It’s also a battle of the unknown; the Lions didn’t play any starters a single snap in the preseason. None of those four Rams defenders played in the preseason either; the Rams starters on both sides of the ball also sat the entire preseason.

That means the Lions don’t get the benefit of having film to watch of the new-look Rams defense. And it’s a very new defenseit’s a very new defense; the Rams have 10 rookies among their 25 defensive players on their initial 53-man roster, with five of them undrafted rookies.

All that inexperience on the Rams defense is also a great opportunity for Detroit’s fine-tuned, creative offense. The Rams haven’t seen anything like Jared agoff throwing to Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams et al. It won’t be easy for the Lions line, but they’ve proven to be up for the challenge before.

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the NFC Divisional Round game from Ford Field

The Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisoinal Round matchup on Sunday afternoon. It’s enough of a buzz for a 3 p.m. kickoff that the morning coffee isn’t even brewed yet and I’m feeling the excitement.

This is a game the Lions should win. Should. It’s far from a sure thing. These Buccaneers are indeed playing a lot better now than back in Week 6, when the Lions won in Tampa 20-6.

Here’s what is racing through my mind as key matchup advantages for why I think the Lions will win and things that worry me about the Buccaneers.

Biggest key matchup for the Lions vs. Seahawks

Identifying the biggest key matchup for the Lions vs. Seahawks in Week 2 at Ford Field

Going into Week 1 for the Lions matchup with the Chiefs, I had said that Aidan Hutchinson against the Chiefs offensive tackles was the key matchup. Not much will be changing this week for the my biggest key matchup against the Seahawks.

Even though I’m going to be paying close attention to the usage of running back Jahmyr Gibbs and who plays left tackle for Taylor Decker, I’m still intrigued with the Lions defensive line. Most of this is due to the knee injury that occurred with defensive lineman Josh Paschal on Thursday. Not only will Paschal be out against the Seahawks, he could be out for a couple of weeks due to the injury.

That opens the door for players such as John Cominsky and Charles Harris to earn more snaps. However, both players had over 40% each of the defensive snaps last week against the Chiefs. For Cominsky, he played 27 defensive snaps (42%) and Harris played 52 defensive snaps (80%).

Despite Paschal playing the least amount of snaps with 17 defensive snaps (26%), I think the Lions can get creative and get James Houston on the field more. So with that, James Houston is my key player to watch for the Lions defense. Much of that is due to the versatility that the Lions defensive line has at all times.

The Lions should have no issues plugging Cominsky or Hutchinson inside to pass-rush as a 3-technique. That opens the door for Houston to standup off the edge and try to pressure Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith.

Houston potentially getting extended playing time is extremely relevant because of the injuries the Seahawks havre sustained with their offensive line. Not only did the team put their starting right tackle Abraham Lucas on the IR with a knee injury, they’ve also listed their starting left tackle Charles Cross out for the game.

This all bodes well for James Houston and the Lions defensive line. It should be expected for the Lions defense to pressure Smith early and often. With that, I’d expect an increase in playing time for Houston. While he didn’t record a defensive statistic last week against the Chiefs other than a quarterback hit on Patrick Mahomes, he should find success against Seattle.