The Minnesota Wild (20-20-6) host the red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning (28-14-4) Thursday at Xcel Energy Center for an 8 p.m. ET puck drop. We analyze the Lightning-Wild sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Lightning at Wild: Projected starting goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Devan Dubnyk
Vasilevskiy is riding a nine-game winning streak, which has improved his season record to 23-9-2 through 34 games. He has a .916 save percentage and 2.58 goals against average.
Dubnyk took the loss in four of his last five starts and is 8-12-2 on the season. He has a 3.35 GAA and .892 SV% through 23 games (21 starts). He gave up seven goals on just 29 shots in a loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins Tuesday.
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Lightning at Wild: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Lightning 5, Wild 1
Moneyline (ML)
The LIGHTNING (-175) are heavy road favorites, but these odds are still higher than they should be. Tampa Bay is 9-1-0 across its last 10 games and 13-7-2 on the road for the season. It rebounded from a shocking 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils Sunday to top the Los Angeles Kings 4-3 in a shootout Tuesday. Ride with Vasilevskiy, as he holds a significant edge in Thursday’s goaltending battle.
The Wild (+145), who are last in the Central Division, are 11-5-4 at home for the season, but they’re just 3-6-1 across their last 10 games overall and are stuck in a four-game losing skid. As noted above, Dubnyk has been awful. He and the Wild are better than their records indicate, but the numbers won’t be corrected in a test against the Lightning.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Lightning to win in regulation, overtime or a shootout returns a profit of $5.70.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The proper play for this game is to back the LIGHTNING (-1.5, +150) to win by at least 2 goals. Tampa Bay is just 18-28 against the spread overall and 9-13 on the road, while Minnesota is 22-24 ATS overall and 8-12 at home. The Lightning’s poor ATS record is largely the result of a poor start to the season, as they were favored more often than not after winning last year’s Presidents’ Trophy.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 6.5 (-143). Vasilevskiy is unlikely to give up more than a goal or two, while the Lightning have totaled just 6 goals over their last three games. A 5-1 win for Tampa Bay cashes our bets.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 169-154
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