The Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders play Game 4 of their Stanley Cup Playoffs third-round series Saturday. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Below, we analyze the Lightning-Islanders odds and lines, with NHL picks and predictions.
The Lightning came up with the 2-1 road victory against the Islanders in Game 3 seizing back home-ice advantage. They’re still averaging just 2.33 goals per game in this series, however.
The Islanders were 4-1 across their previous five home games until Thursday’s loss. They have had a power outage on offense in this series, totaling just five goals across three games.
Lightning at Islanders: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Lightning -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Islanders +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Lightning -1.5 (+190) | Islanders +1.5 (-250)
- Over/Under: 5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Lightning at Islanders: Projected starting goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (31-10-1, 2.21 GAA, .925 SV%, 5 SO) vs. Semyon Varlamov (19-11-4, 2.04 GAA, .929 SV%, 7 SO). Stats from regular season.
Vasilevskiy has allowed two earned runs across the past four games while winning three of them. He allowed just the one goal on 28 shots in Game 3 in Uniondale.
Varlamov has allowed three or fewer goals in six of the past eight playoff games, but the offense has failed to give him much in the way of support with just 1.67 goals per game in this series.
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Lightning at Islanders: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Lightning 3, Islanders 2
Money line (ML)
The LIGHTNING (-140) are moderate favorites as they look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Islanders (+115) have had difficulty lighting the lamp, and they’re not worth backing at this point against the defending champs.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The Lightning -1.5 (+190) are a tempting play here, but their Game 3 win was a one-goal victory, and two of the three games in this series have been one-goal games. The Islanders +1.5 (-250) will cost you two-and-a-half times your potential return, and that’s just not worth the risk, either.
AVOID.
Over/Under (O/U)
I like the TOTAL 5 to land right on the number. With the way this series has been, taking a flyer on the alternate line while playing UNDER 5.5 (-165) is the way to go.
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