If the 2020 NFL season started today, Sam Darnold and the Jets would be in a worse offensive state than they were when the 2019 season ended.
That’s saying a lot considering the Jets ranked 31st in points and 32nd in yards last year, but it’s undeniable after they replaced Robby Anderson with Breshad Perriman on Tuesday. Anderson’s departure and Joe Douglas’ inability to bring in more talent on offense could also set Darnold up for failure in 2020.
Despite a respectable 7-9 season, New York finished 2019 among the worst in almost every offensive category. Darnold finished 25th in passing yards, completion percentage and passing touchdowns. It would be hard to get much worse than that, yet the soon-to-be third-year quarterback somehow has less talent to work with just a few weeks into free agency.
New York’s offensive line is theoretically better but isn’t proven, the receiving corps lacks a true No. 1 option without Anderson and Le’Veon Bell remains the only running back worth giving any touches. A lot can change between now and the beginning of the 2020 season, but so far it would take a miracle for Adam Gase and Darnold to salvage this offense.
General manager Joe Douglas went heavy on offensive linemen early in free agency by signing potential starters Connor McGovern, George Fant and Greg Van Roten and bringing back Alex Lewis. Outside of McGovern, none of those players have proven to be consistent performers and aren’t necessarily true upgrades over what the Jets fielded in 2019. Fant is wildly inconsistent and undeveloped, while Van Roten and Lewis are serviceable linemen.
The biggest blow to Darnold’s potential is the loss of Anderson, who signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Panthers on Tuesday. Losing one player won’t break an offense, but Darnold targeted Anderson on 19.8 percent of his passing attempts over the past two seasons. Without Anderson, the Jets are now woefully thin at wide receiver. Perriman, Jamison Crowder and Quincy Enunwa – should he return fully healthy from his second season-ending neck injury – are now the Jets’ top receiver options and none inspire confidence.
Perriman is a solid replacement for Anderson with lots of speed and a big 6-foot-2, 215-pound frame, but a downgrade considering he only recently enjoyed a solid season. He failed to perform with the Ravens and Browns over his first three seasons in the NFL and only excelled with the Buccaneers after they lost Mike Evans for the season. Perriman’s 36 catches for 645 yards and six touchdowns on only 56 percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps is nice, but misleading. He caught 25 passes for 506 yards and five touchdowns in the final five games of the season when he averaged over 90 percent of the snaps.
Behind Perriman, it’s Crowder, who saw 20 percent of Darnold’s targets in 2019. Crowder’s 78 targets were 16 more than the combined totals of the rest of the Jets receivers, excluding Anderson. Enunwa, Vyncint Smith, Josh Doctson and Braxton Berrios aren’t going to cut it for a team looking to take over the AFC East and the duo of Perriman and Crowder isn’t great as Darnold’s top-two receiving options.
That leaves the tight ends and running backs. Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin are good players but neither are worldbeating tight ends, and the Jets have not found a running back to backup Bell, who faded toward the end of the 2019 season after being fed touches throughout the year. It looks like Ty Montgomery and Bilal Powell won’t be returning, meaning the Jets must find a quality backup running back to spell Bell during the season. There are some quality rushers left on the market, but none are good enough to invigorate the Jets offense.
Now, this doom and gloom for the Jets offense could all change in the next month. The Jets have the Nos. 11, 48, 68 and 78 picks in the draft, which they could easily use to bolster the offensive line and add weapons for Darnold. The o-line and receiver are two of the deepest positions in the draft and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jets grab a player at either position with its first two picks. The Jets could also trade for a lineman such as Trent Williams or a wide receiver such as Alshon Jeffrey before the draft to infuse some veteran experience into the roster. Any of those moves would help Darnold and would be significant upgrades over the offense the Jets currently field.
A lot can change before the season begins, but as it stands now, the Jets look a lot worse than they did in 2019.