The Toronto Maple Leafs (31-21-8) visit the Steel City Tuesday for a 7 p.m. ET puck drop at the PPG Paints Arena against the Pittsburgh Penguins (36-15-6). We analyze the Leafs-Penguins odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips around this matchup.
Maple Leafs at Penguins: Projected starting goalies
Frederik Andersen vs. Tristan Jarry
Anderson lost back-to-back starts, including a 5-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres in Toronto’s last game on Sunday. He’s now at 24-11-6 on the season with a .908 save percentage and a 2.93 goals against average.
Jarry has been better than Matt Murray as the Penguins netminder in essentially the same amount of games. He has a higher winning percentage and save percentage plus gives up fewer goals per game. Jarry is 19-8-1 with a .930 SV% and a 2.14 GAA.
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Maple Leafs at Penguins: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Penguins 4, Leafs 2
Moneyline (ML)
The Penguins are a phenomenal home team with a 21-5-4 record and a +1.06 goal differential in games at home. Pittsburgh crushed the Maple Leafs, 6-1, in their first meeting of the season on Nov. 16. The game was played in Pittsburgh, where the Penguins have owned the Leafs in recent years (10-4 in the last 14 home games against Toronto). Furthermore, this is a bad spot for the Leafs, who are 0-8 in their last eight in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 scenario.
BET PENGUINS -139 ON THE MONEYLINE.
New to sports betting? A $100 wager on the Penguins to win would return a profit of $71.94.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
This game could be a more competitive game as Toronto +1.5 (-200) is starting its top goaltender in Anderson, whereas the Leafs started Kasimir Kaskisuo for his first, and only, career NHL game in their first meeting. But the Penguins -1.5 (+165) are the hotter team—winning five out of their last seven games with their only two losses coming against a Tampa Bay Lightning team that is second in the NHL in points. Also, five of the last six Leafs-Penguins games have been decided by two or more goals.
TAKE THE PENGUINS ON THE PUCK LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 6.5 (-115) is the right play on the total because the trends say so and BetMGM is trying to scare bettors off with heavier vig on the Under. Three out of the last four Leafs-Penguins games have gone Under the projected total. The Under is 3-0-1 in Penguins last four games as a favorite and 3-0-2 in their last five versus Eastern Conference foes.
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