The 51 best NFL free agents left on the open market

After the Dak Prescott and J.J. Watt deals, and eight franchise tag designations, here are the NFL’s 51 best upcoming free agents.

The 2021 NFL free-agency period, which officially begins at 4 p.m. ET on March 17, promises to be like few others in the league’s history. Due to projected revenue shortfalls in the age of COVID, the league has anticipated that the 2021 salary cap will be somewhere between $180 million and $185 million per team.

That’s down from $198.2 million in the 2020 league year, which obviously puts several teams in a major pinch. Right now, per OverTheCap.com, there are 12 NFL teams over a projected salary cap of $180.5 million, and teams like the Saints ($58,718,146 over before franchising safety Marcus Williams), Rams ($35,136,331 over), Eagles ($34,146,468 over, which is mostly the Carson Wentz aftermath), Chiefs ($22,984,019 over), and Steelers (from $26,131,664 over to $3,617,086 over after a lot of pruning), will have to engage in some highly creative accounting just to get into compliance — forget about making any big splashes.

On the other hand, we have teams like the Jaguars ($71,821,714 under the cap), Jets ($67,341,082 under), Patriots ($62,211,837 under before the Trent Brown trade), Colts ($44,681,614 under), and Bengals ($40,979,130 under). The radical disparity between the haves and the have-nots when it comes to the capacity to spend in free agency could lead to an unusually constricted market, especially for those players who are more rank-and-file than sheer superstar. Not that those players won’t have offers; but those offers might not be what they may have been in previous years. It’s not the fault of the players; it’s simply how the market lands in this particular time. This could result in a lot of free agents taking one-year contracts and shining it on until new television deals and the hope of a more “normal” world make things more equitable in the 2022 league year.

After the Cowboys signed Dak Prescott to a four-year, $160 million contract, the Cardinals signed J.J. Watt to a two-year, $28 million free-agent deal, the Buccaneers signed Lavonte David to a two-year, $25 million contract, and franchise tags were handed out to eight different players (Broncos safety Justin Simmons, Jets safety Marcus Maye, Saints safety Marcus Williams, Bears receiver Allen Robinson, Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin, Panthers offensive tackle Taylor Moton, Jaguars offensive tackle Cam Robinson, and Washington guard Brandon Scherff), the free agency picture got shaken up, especially at or near the top of everybody’s lists.

So, let’s talk about remaining free-agent value, at least how we see it at Touchdown Wire. Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield have compiled their list of the top 51 players who should be available as unrestricted free agents, after tags have been applied and new deals were signed. Mark assembled the offensive players, Doug put together the defensive list, and they then compiled the top remaining free agents in the upcoming 2021 league year, regardless of position.

Scouting the most important defensive players available in NFL free agency this year

From Shaq Barrett to Justin Simmons, everything you need to know about the upcoming defensive free agents.

The NFL’s annual game of musical chair is almost upon us as talented free agents will hit the open market in early March. After breaking down the available offensive free agent pool, it’s time to shift attentions to defense.

There isn’t quite as much top end talent as there is on the offensive side of the ball, but there are plenty of starters for teams of every kind as they try to plug in holes on their defenses.

From future Hall of Famers, to Super Bowl champions, to young, talented players just hitting their second contracts, here’s an overview of the defensive free agent market.

Panthers 2021 potential free agent targets: LB Lavonte David

David excels in every part of the game.

Every team that wins the Super Bowl inevitably loses some key players to their competitors the next year. For the Buccaneers, several important pieces are about to become unrestricted free agents, including Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.

The most crucial one is Lavonte David, without whom these Bucs probably don’t win a championship. He is far and away the top linebacker who might become available in 2021 and this franchise has to make an effort if he does end up on the market.

Pros

The Panthers predictably missed Luke Kuechly a lot in 2020. While David isn’t as good as Kuechly was in his prime, he’s as close as any linebacker still in the NFL. David excels in every part of the game. Like Kuechly, he’s tight in coverage with 12 career picks and 51 pass breakups. He can also rush the passer (24 sacks, 55 QB hits) and stop the run (806 solo tackles, 128 for a loss). David practically never leaves the field, either. In six of his nine seasons in the league, he has played at least 97% of Tampa’s defensive snaps and he has only missed seven games.

Cons

The Bucs wisely don’t seem inclined to let David test the market. As Bruce Arians told him at their championship parade, “your ass ain’t going nowhere.” Even if they can’t work out a deal, signing David wouldn’t be easy. Any team that needs an off-ball linebacker might be in the mix and Spotrac is projecting his market value to be $12.7 million a season. Also, he doesn’t look it, but he just turned 31 years old.

Conclusion

It’s a long shot, but if Carolina is going to splurge on one defensive free agent this year then David will get them the best value. No other one NFL player could improve this defensive unit more.

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Anatomy of a Divisional Round Win: Buccaneers need to eliminate Devin White’s reverse gear

If the Buccaneers want to get off the schnied against the Saints in the divisional round, Devin White as a pass-rusher will be crucial.

If you want to play linebacker in the modern NFL, you’d better be versatile. The days of the Mike Singletary-style ‘backer who stayed in the middle and just crashed forward to stop the run are over in an era when teams on average play base defense less than 20% of the time, and dime defense more than 20% of the time. Now, the best linebackers can do everything from blowing up run fits to playing the slot credibly to rushing the passer from multiple gaps. Anything less that, and you’re a liability — and that will show up in your snap counts.

That said, there are times when even the best linebackers should have their roles reduced from a variety perspective. Devin White, the second-year star for the Buccaneers, has the most sacks among off-the-ball ‘backers with nine, the second-most total pressures with 31, the fifth-most stops with 56, and the ninth-most tackles with 95.

(Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

That’s the good side. The bad side? Per Pro Football Focus, White has the most targets in coverage among off-ball ‘backers with 98, and he’s allowed the most catches (86) for the most receiving yards (761), the second-most yards after catch (410), the second-most touchdowns allowed (four, tied with several other linebackers), and an opponent passer rating of 112.6. If White has an absolute dominant trait to his game, it’s his knack for creating quarterback pressure. If there’s an obvious liability, it’s White’s ability to hold up in coverage. That may change over time given White’s eagerness to improve, game intelligence, and physical gifts, but we are where we are with this.

The NFL’s most egregious Pro Bowl snubs in 2020

Every year, Pro Bowl votes come out, and every year, there are snubs. Here are our most egregious omissions in this year’s voting.

There will be no Pro Bowl game in 2021 due to COVID concerns, but the NFL has released its Pro Bowl rosters for the 2020 season, which you can see here. While most of the players are deserving, there are also reputation picks that don’t match up with performance — and just as surely, there are players who should absolutely be Pro Bowlers who aren’t.

Why is this a big deal? Pro Bowl selections matter. They matter in contract negotiations, and they matter in Hall of Fame voting. It’s important that the NFL’s best players are regarded as such in any season, which is why I’ve taken the time to list the snubs in this year’s Pro Bowl voting.

It’s the best we can do.

How Buccaneers DC Todd Bowles created the NFL’s best defense

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense is the NFL’s gold standard this season. The primary reason is the schematic perfection of Todd Bowles.

In 2018, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has a serious defensive problem. Their defense ranked dead last in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics under defensive coordinators Mark Duffner and Mike Smith. When the team replaced head coach Dirk Koetter with Bruce Arians, Arians made one of the more astute free-agent moves he’s made in his estimable career — he called Todd Bowles, who had been let go by the Jets after a four-year 24-40 record as their head coach. Bowles wasn’t able to get it done with a team that seemed to be in the middle of endless rebuilds and salary cap bleeds, but he’s always been a great defensive coach, and Arians had no doubt about that.

Bowles played under Arians when Arians was the head coach at Temple, and he hired Bowles to be his defensive coordinator when he became the Cardinals’ head coach in 2013. So, it was no surprise when Arians tagged Bowles once again to be his guy on the other side of the ball.

In 2019, Bowles took the Bucs’ defense from 32nd to sixth in FO’s defensive metrics. Shaquil Barrett, a five-year reserve pass-rusher for the Broncos before he signed a one-year, $4 million deal to play on Bowles’ defense, all of a sudden led the NFL in sacks with 19.5. Cornerback Jamel Dean came in as a third-round pick out of Auburn and showed that he could hang in the NFL right away. Under Bowles, a defense that had been in total disarray was playing with discipline, confidence, and bravado.

So, it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise that in an NFL that is seeing scoring and passing efficiency like never before, Bowles is the guy who’s put the league’s one consistently dominant defense on the field. The Bucs rank first in FO’s defensive metrics, and they’re quite a ways ahead of the Steelers, a formidable defense as well, who place second.

If there was one test that was going to expose any weakness in this defense, it was going to be the Sunday matchup against the Packers. Green Bay came in as the NFL’s highest-scoring offense, putting up 38 points per game, and Aaron Rodgers was playing as well as he had ever been in his slam-dunk Hall of Fame career.

In the end, it wasn’t even close. The Bucs made Rodgers look like a Division II rookie who was trying to get the snap count together in garbage time of a preseason game. In a 38-10 thrashing, Rodgers, who came into the game with 13 touchdowns, no interceptions, and just three sacks, completed 16 of 35 passes for 160 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, five sacks, and a quarterback rating of 35.4 — the third-worst of his career. After two early scoring drives, that defense settled in, and the Packers were given nothing the rest of the game.

“We have to play our game,” Bowles said last Thursday of Rodgers and the Packers. “We’re more worried about what we do and think we can do to win as opposed to worrying about the opposition. If you have to worry about the opposition and then yourself, that’s two birds with one stone. We try to concentrate on us. We know every week we’re going to face a good opponent – in this case a great opponent – so it’s a big challenge for us.”

Bowles put together as impressive a defensive game plan as I’ve seen in a very long time, and the hallmarks of this game plan are hallmarks of what’s made this defense great all season long.

Gil Brandt says the Bucs have one of the best offensive-defensive duos in the NFL

See which two Buccaneers players Gil Brandt named to his list of the top 10 offensive-defensive duos in the NFL in 2020.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know that this is the year to make a run at a championship. With 43-year-old quarterback Tom Brady still winning his battle against Father Time, the Bucs have to like their chances of getting back to the postseason for the first time since 2007.

And unlike last year when Brady struggled to find offensive weapons in New England, he’ll have a plethora of talent on the Bucs roster in 2020, headlined by Pro Bowl receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as tight end Rob Gronkowski.

But the Bucs defense is also expected to turn some heads this year, especially after finishing last year with the top rush defense. The addition of safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and continued maturation of linebacker Devin White should make Todd Bowles’ defense one of the top units in the league. And leading that group will be the old guy, himself, linebacker Lavonte David, who is entering his ninth season.

Gil Brandt over at NFL.com had David and Mike Evans at No. 6 on his list of the top 10 offensive-defensive duos in the NFL in 2020.

Per Brandt:

“Not since Randy Moss has Tom Brady played with a receiving target who possessed the size-skill ratio of the 6-foot-5, 231-pound Evans, who has topped 1,000 yards in each of his six NFL seasons to date. David is a former two-star high school recruit who has since proven himself to be a five-star talent, accumulating 1,008 tackles in eight seasons. He’s been incredibly reliable as a pro, missing just seven games thus far while switching between five different coordinators (including interim Mark Duffner in 2018).”

I love that David is finally getting some recognition after years of being overlooked. Evans should have another big season with Brady under center. Another 1,000-yard receiving year would make it seven-straight for Evans to begin his career, breaking his tie with Randy Moss for most all-time.

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Gregg Rosenthal calls Lavonte David ‘one of the most underrated players of his generation’

See why Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com had Lavonte David on his list of the top 25 free agents of 2021.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to rewrite the script in 2020, going from the doldrums to the top of the NFL mountain. With Tom Brady now the man under center, the Bucs seem destined for a return to the postseason after more than a decade.

This year’s squad is full of talent on both sides of the ball, and the signing of Brady was perhaps the greatest free agent move in franchise history. But the Bucs will have a number of highly-sought after free agents of their own in 2021, and Gregg Rosenthal over at NFL.com listed three Tampa Bay players on his list of the top 25 free agents of 2021.

Coming in at No. 8 was linebacker and reigning sack king Shaquil Barrett.

Per Rosenthal:

“According to the Football Outsiders Almanac, Barrett had 18 QB hits and 55 hurries in addition to his league-leading sack total of 19.5 in 2019. If he comes anywhere close to those numbers again, he’s ranked too low here.”

Right behind Barrett at No. 11 was wide receiver Chris Godwin, who had a career year last season with 86 receptions for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns.

“A new-school prototype who can line up anywhere on the field and make plays after the catch. Don’t be surprised if Godwin’s value goes up even further with Tom Brady throwing him the ball.”

And finally, at No. 23 was linebacker Lavonte David.

“One of the most underrated players of his generation, David continues to play at a high level with a true three-down skill set that is very hard to find in off-ball linebackers.”

David and Devin White could easily make up the best linebacker duo in the NFL today. With the Bucs appearing in five prime-time games this season, David will get the chance to showcase his game on the national stage.

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Lavonte David lands on NFL’s list of 30 best players over 30

Find out what number Bucs LB Lavonte David came in at on the NFL’s list of the 30 best players over 30.

Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David is entering his ninth NFL season, but as Devin White learned, he can still move for an old man.

David turned 30 this year, but is already the seasoned veteran of this linebacker group, which could be one of the best in the league. With an All-Pro season already under his belt, it’s not surprising to see David land on the NFL’s list of the 30 best players over 30. David came in at No. 19.

Here’s what NFL.com writer Ali Bhanpuri had to say:

“The third-wheel in what might go down as the greatest three-down linebacker draft class of all time, David rarely receives the recognition he deserves. I already don’t feel good about ranking him in the late teens. The ninth-year pro, who incredibly only has one Pro Bowl nod to his name (and that wasn’t even during his All-Pro season) was a rock for an improved Bucs defense last year, lining up for 99.6 percent of the unit’s snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. He finished the campaign with the second-best completion percentage allowed above expected (-11.9%) at the position, and as one of just two ‘backers (Jayon Brown was the other) who didn’t surrender a TD in coverage (min. 50 targets). But my favorite David stat of 2019 shows his maniacal relentlessness: He had 19 hustle stops — defined by NGS as defensive stops where the player covers 20-plus yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle — which was more than twice as many as All-Pro and fellow 2012 draft classmate Demario Davis. If only Luke Kuechly or Bobby Wagner had been drafted by AFC teams …”

One of the best parts about Tom Brady coming to the Buccaneers is that the team will play five prime-time games, meaning guys like David and Mike Evans will finally get to show NFL audiences what Bucs fans have known for years.

For those wondering, Brady also landed on the list (of course), coming in at No. 17. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was ranked at number one.

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Devin White refers to Lavonte David as an ‘old guy’ in this hilarious video

Watch as Bucs linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David race during training camp.

Buccaneers second-year linebacker Devin White is expected to make a big jump in 2020, looking to further validate the team’s selection of him with the fifth pick in the 2019 NFL draft.

White and fellow linebacker Lavonte David could easily be the best linebacker duo in the league, and for David, the 2020 season will be his ninth in the NFL, making him the old veteran of the linebacker group.

Take a look at this hilarious video from Bucs camp of White referring to David as an old man before they square off in a race. And, as Lavonte proves, he’s still got the wheels to play this game.

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"That boy fast for year nine" 😭

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Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans had to weigh in on the video with a comment of his own.

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