The No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (8-3, 0-0 SEC) face the Missouri Tigers (11-1, 0-0) Wednesday. Tip-off from Mizzou Arena is at 7 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Kentucky vs. Missouri odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
Kentucky bounced back from a 63-53 loss to then-No 14 UCLA on Dec. 17 with a 88-68 win over Florida A&M last Wednesday. The Wildcats have yet to beat a ranked opponent. Kentucky is led by 2021 consensus national player of the year F Oscar Tshiebwe, who averages 15 points per game (10th in SEC) and 13 rebounds per game (1st in SEC, 2nd overall).
The Tigers also rebounded from a ranked loss (95-67 vs. then-No. 6 Kansas on Dec. 10) by beating No. 16 Illinois 93-71 Thursday, covering as 6.5-point underdogs. It was the first win over a ranked team by Mizzou but still wasn’t enough to get the Tigers ranked themselves. Missouri’s squad is led by guard D’Moi Hodge, who averages 16.7 points per game (4th in SEC) and 2.8 steals per game (1st in SEC, 5th overall).
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Kentucky at Missouri odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:43 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Kentucky -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Missouri +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Kentucky -2.5 (-115) | Missouri +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 148.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Kentucky at Missouri picks and predictions
Prediction
Kentucky 85, Missouri 80
Moneyline
This matchup will come down to who shoots best behind the arc. Kentucky is the only team in the SEC with a better 3-point percentage (39.9) than Mizzou (36.9). The difference between these squads is that Missouri allows a much higher 3-point percentage (36.1, most in SEC) than Kentucky (33.2, 6th in SEC).
Missouri will try to make up the difference by forcing turnovers — Tigers opponents average 19.8 TOs per game (1st in SEC, 8th overall), but Kentucky doesn’t turn the ball over as often (12.3 per game, 2nd fewest in SEC) as some of Mizzou’s other opponents this season.
I think Kentucky’s size (41 rebounds per game to Mizzou’s 33.3) and experience (particularly on the coaching staff) give it the edge.
BET KENTUCKY (-150).
Against the spread
The spread is low enough that you can probably BET KENTUCKY -2.5 (-115) for a better payout than the moneyline, but keep in mind that this could easily come down to the wire as a 1- or 2-point game.
Over/Under
The 2 best 3-point shooting squads in the SEC? Yeah, this should be a fast-paced game that easily hits the Over. Mizzou is 8-4 to the Over this season and has hit it in 5 of its last 6 games. Kentucky has gone Under in 5 of its last 6, but Mizzou allows 74.7 points per game (most in SEC) so Kentucky should see more success with scoring.
BET OVER 148.5 (-105).
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