A 3-0 start for the Florida men’s basketball team has the Gators moving up the KenPom ratings heading into Week 2 of the regular season.
The first week of college basketball is in the books, and the Florida Gators are off to the first 3-0 start under head coach [autotag]Todd Golden[/autotag]. The undefeated start has also led to a bump in the KenPom rantings, where the Orange are Blue are now ranked No. 20 among the 364 teams considered.
A net rating of plus-19.83 moves Florida up eight spots overall and into the No. 5 spots among SEC teams. Auburn (plus-29.87) tops the ratings followed by Tennessee (plus-24.34, 9th), Alabama (plus-23.94, 10th) and Texas A&M (plus-20.61, 17th).
Many college hoops experts and oddsmakers consider Pomeroy’s ratings the gold standard in the sport, and the reputation has held for more than 20 years.
“His ratings are derived from a proprietary algorithm, with the core centered on the Pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage, made famous by baseball statistician Bill James,” ESPN explains.
“Pomeroy’s formula is designed to be purely predictive, with an emphasis on margin of victory. He factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo and even luck, but does not, however, take into consideration injuries or emotional factors.”
Breaking down the KenPom ratings
| Date |
Oct. 15 |
Nov. 12 |
| W-L |
0-0 |
3-0 |
| NetRtg |
+18.33 (28) |
+19.83 (20) |
| ORtg |
110.6 (20) |
117.2 (13) |
| DRtg |
92.3 (39) |
97.4 (49) |
| AdjT |
73.6 (23) |
73.2 (47) |
| Luck |
N/A |
+.000 (117) |
| SOS Net |
N/A |
-4.16 (237) |
| SOS ORtg |
N/A |
100.8 (265) |
| SOS DRtg |
N/A |
105.0 (198) |
| NCSOS Net |
N/A |
-4.16 (237) |
Through three games, Florida’s offense is better than expected (117.2, 13th) and the defense is worse than expected (97.4, 49th), according to the preseason numbers.
Golden’s offseason focus was on defense, and a dip in the ratings doesn’t mean a failure. Florida’s defense ended the 2023-24 campaign ranked 94th in efficiency. Staying within the top 50 through the season’s first week is a positive sign and may indicate some improvement.
The Gators allowed 83 points to South Florida in the season opener but held Jacksonville to 60 and Grambling State to 62 after that.
Florida is also playing a bit slower than expected, with a 73.2 adjusted tempo rating; however, that number is only down 0.4 from Pomeroy’s preseason projection and is 1.2 possessions ahead of last year’s final figure. It’s still very early in the season, so expect the Gators to creep up the rankings while maintaining a similar number in this category.
Because Florida was expected to win all three games it’s played this year, the luck rating remains at triple zeroes. Considering the circumstances, no movement is a good thing in this statistical category. Other SEC teams haven’t been as fortunate — for example, Texas A&M has a negative luck rating after losing the season opener to UCF.
Strength of Schedule according to KenPom
KenPom’s strength of schedule ratings only considers the games played, so Florida’s 237th ranking isn’t a problem. South Florida is the best team UF has faced so far, and the Bulls are ranked 125th in the country right now.
Jacksonville is ranked 191st and Grambling State is 224th, but all three schools that have lost to Florida could climb up the rankings if they do well within their conference. Grambling State is the best SWAC team and Jacksonville is ranked fourth among teams in the ASUN Conference, according to KenPom.
A strong non-conference strength of schedule is important for teams with NCAA Tournament hopes, such as Florida. The Gators can’t control the SEC schedule, but the staff can set up games against quality opponents to fill out the calendar. Wins against decent teams can make all the difference when it comes time for Selection Sunday and seeding.
Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
