AL Wild Card Series Game 2: Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”4141″ ]

The Kansas City Royals look to advance and eliminate the Baltimore Orioles in Game 2 of their best-of-3 Wild Card Series Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Royals lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Orioles won 4-2

Kansas City took Tuesday’s opener 1-0 as +125 road underdogs with the Under (7) easily cashing. Royals SP Cole Ragans was brilliant, striking out 8 over 6 shutout innings. MLB batting champ SS Bobby Witt Jr. brought home the game’s lone run in the 6th inning with a 2-out, RBI single. RP Lucas Erceg closed the door on the Orioles, striking out 2 of the game’s final 3 batters after allowing a leadoff walk in the bottom of the 9th.

The Orioles are on the brink of getting eliminated for the 2nd consecutive year in their 1st-round matchup. The bats fell silent Tuesday, mustering only 5 hits and stranding 3 runners in scoring position — Baltimore finished 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. SP Corbin Burnes was the hard luck loser, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits and a walk over 8 innings with 3 strikeouts.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024 with a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 206 2/3 innings. With a playoff spot clinched, the 9-year veteran only worked 2 innings as a tuneup for Wednesday’s start.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 9-3, 2.62 ERA (99 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 16 starts
  • Career vs. Orioles: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K in 3 games, including 1 start
  • 2024 vs. Orioles (1 start): Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K in 5-0 home defeat April 21
  • Career postseason: 0-0, 1 save, 0.00 ERA (2 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 3 relief outings for Mets in 2022

Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA) made 28 starts between the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays this season. He posted a 1.15 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 165 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 1 K in 9-7 victory at New York Yankees Sept. 25
  • 2024 vs. Royals (1 start): Win, 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 road victory as member of Rays July 4
  • Career vs. Royals: 3-1, 5.09 ERA (23 IP, 13 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 17 K in 4 starts
  • Career postseason stats: 0-1, 5.17 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 22 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 15 K in 11 games (1 start) for Phillies in 2022 and Rays in 2023

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 2:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Orioles -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-165) | Orioles -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”4132″ ]

Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 3, Orioles 2

Moneyline

BET ROYALS (+130).

The young Orioles are still searching for that elusive postseason breakthrough. After winning 101 games last year, they were swept in a best-of-5 ALDS by the Texas Rangers, and the playoff pressure seems to be getting to them again. They needed to make a statement in Game 1 vs. the Royals, especially at home with their ace Burnes on the mound, but they couldn’t get it done. It’s starting to feel like the moment is still too big for this young Orioles squad.

On the other hand, the Royals are rolling out their best starter in Lugo for Game 2. Lugo has been impressive, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He’s the kind of reliable arm you want in a game like this. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Eflin hasn’t looked good against the Royals, giving up 5 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against them.

With the Royals coming in as underdogs and considering the recent form of both teams, TAKING KANSAS CITY (+130) on the moneyline feels like the right move. The Orioles (-155) still need to prove they can handle the postseason spotlight.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll keep my bet to the Royals on moneyline getting those plus odds.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

Playoff baseball is a different beast — players are more cautious, the intensity is higher and runs are often harder to come by. That’s why it’s wise to lean toward the Under in these kinds of games.

The recent trends are also in our favor. The Under has hit in the last 2 meetings between these teams and is 3-2-1 in the last 6.

The Royals have been in a low-scoring groove, with the Under hitting in 7 of their last 8 games. Lugo has been a big part of that trend, with the Under cashing in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Orioles are also coming off 2 straight Under games.

With both sides likely to lean on strong pitching and playoff nerves in play, UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the smart choice here.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

AL Wild Card Series Game 1: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”4141″ ]

The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles clash Tuesday in Charm City as they swing into the postseason. First pitch in the opener of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Orioles won 4 of 6 games

Kansas City (86-76) overcame a pair of late-season losing streaks to earn the No. 2 AL Wild Card slot. The Royals sport an average offense but a top-notch pitching-and-defense combo. Kansas City’s 3.98 runs per game allowed ranks 6th in MLB.

Baltimore (91-71) was under-.500 (34-38) over its last 72 games, but did finish September on a strong note. The Orioles swept the Minnesota Twins over the weekend and went 5-1 over their last 6 games. Baltimore is the No. 1 AL Wild Card.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Ragans made 32 starts this season, going 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 1-0 win at Washington Nationals last Tuesday
  • Career vs. Orioles: 0-2, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 6 BB, 14 K in 4 games (2 starts)
  • Notched a 1.08 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .515 OPS in 25 September innings
  • Making his 1st career postseason appearance

Burnes made 32 starts, going 15-9, with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 194 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-1 loss at New York Yankees Thursday
  • Career vs. Royals: 3-0, 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 21 H, 6 BB, 32 K in 5 starts
  • Owns a 1.29 ERA on the strength of a .550 OPS allowed since Aug. 28
  • Has registered a 2.84 ERA across 19 career postseason innings

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 9:18 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”4132″ ]

Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 3

Moneyline

PASS: look to the run line for a best-value opportunity.

Run line/Against the spread

The Orioles are 8-2 over their last 10 games while Kansas City is just 4-9 with a .531 OPS over its last 13 games. And the Royals are 1-3 over their last 4 series openers.

Ragans has benefitted from some low batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures of late. Per ESPN, current Baltimore bats own an aggregate .837 OPS against him.

Burnes has a postseason pedigree. Per ESPN, current K.C. bats own an aggregate .595 OPS against him.

Baltimore righting the ship late should give the Orioles a shot of confidence in this October opener.

BACK THE ORIOLES -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

The Over is 4-2-1 across the last 7 series meetings. The last 5 Baltimore games have seen the Over cash 4 times (4-1).

The pitching matchup here certainly has the potential to make the rested-bullpen opener a pitchers’ duel. But recency bias has the bats not getting quite enough attention (or more likely has the pitchers getting just too much sway).

Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 7 (+100).

[gambcom-standard rankid=”6035″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

The Kansas City Royals (1-2) and Baltimore Orioles (2-1) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Orioles won 5-1 last season

The Royals exploded for 11 runs in their series finale against the Minnesota Twins Sunday, after scoring just 2 total over their 1st 2 games. C Salvador Perez, RF Nelson Velazquez, CF Kyle Isbel, SS Bobby Witt Jr., and 3B Maikel Garcia all went deep for Kansas City in the 11-0 win. The Royals threw a 4-hit shutout, led by starting RHP Brady Singer and his 10 strikeouts over 7 innings.

After allowing an average of 12 runs over the 1st 2 games of the series, the Los Angeles Angels shut the Orioles down in a 4-1 victory Sunday. Baltimore could only manage 3 hits in the loss, and the only run it could muster was an RBI walk from SS Gunnar Henderson. Despite the struggles, the Orioles are averaging over 8 runs per game on the season.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Dean Kremer

Wacha (14-4, 3.22 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 134 1/3 innings for the San Diego Padres.

  • 2023 road stats: 4-1, 4.07 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 25 ER) in 10 starts
  • Last start vs. Orioles: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 10-3 home victory with the Padres Aug. 15, 2023
  • Career vs. Orioles: 3-1, 5.19 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 25 ER) in 10 starts

Kremer (13-5, 4.12 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 172 2/3 innings.

  • 2023 home stats: 8-2, 4.38 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 50 ER) in 19 starts
  • Career vs. Royals: Win, 5 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 10-7 road victory June 12, 2022

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:40 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Orioles -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-155) | Orioles -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Orioles (-160) will win this game against the Royals, but I’m not going to put down over 1½ units to win 1; it’s just not a smart bet. Save your money for the spread and/or the total.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+125).

There is a stark difference in talent between these teams. While the Royals are young and maturing, they haven’t arrived like the Orioles have at this point. Baltimore has won 7 of the last 8 straight up against Kansas City, and it covered the run line in 6 games.

Wacha does have a winning record against the Orioles in his career but has an over-5 ERA. Meanwhile, Kremer was among the best pitchers in baseball last season when it came to pitching at home.

Over/Under

PASS.

I don’t see any edge to be had in this game when it comes to the total. The trends are very mixed when it comes to these teams. I’d rather focus my bet on the spread.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Kansas City Royals (18-44) and Baltimore Orioles (38-24) begin a 3-game series in Charm City on Friday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 2-1

The Royals continue their 6-game road trip in Baltimore on Friday after being swept in Miami by the Marlins. Kansas City has lost 14 of its last 20 games and have managed to score only 3.1 runs per game over that stretch.

Baltimore avoided being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday with a 6-3 victory as Gunnar Henderson hit a 2-run HR in the 8th inning. The Orioles went 3-3 on their road trip and return home, where they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Royals at Orioles projected starters

LHP Daniel Lynch vs. RHP Tyler Wells

Lynch (0-1, 4.35 ERA) will make his 3rd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 10 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-4 home loss vs Colorado Rockies Friday
  • Last start vs Orioles: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 6-4 home loss on June 11, 2022
  • Has not earned a victory since last Aug. 1

Wells (4-2, 3.29 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 68 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in a 8-3 road win at the San Francisco Giants Sunday
  • Last start vs Royals: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 11-7 road victory on May 2, 2023

Royals at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:52 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Orioles -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-140) | Orioles -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Royals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Orioles to win, but the odds are not favorable. You have to put up nearly 2 units to win back 1. While Baltimore is the far superior team, they have not played well at home recently, so avoid the moneyline.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+115)

No better way to get your team back on track than coming home to face the 2nd-worst team in the majors. When the Royals lose, it’s by 2 runs or more. Their average run differential over their last 10 losses has been 3.

Lynch has allowed at least 3 ER runs in 9 of his last 13 starts. The Orioles have a .259 batting average with a .770 OPS against left handed pitchers this season.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

I like the OVER 8 (-115) because both of these pitchers are prone to giving up runs. Wells and Lynch gave up 4 runs in their last starts against these respective teams. The Royals may not score many runs, but they allow their opponents to produce a lot. Kansas City’s opponents have scored 21 runs over their last 3 games.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]