The Kansas City Royals (37-79) take on the Boston Red Sox (59-55) in the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch from Fenway Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1
The Royals lost 4-3 Wednesday and 6-2 Monday, although they avoided a potential sweep situation with a 9-3 victory Tuesday. Kansas City has lost 4 of its last 5 games, although it took a 7-game win streak into Saturday’s game.
The Red Sox have won 2 of 3 games so far this series but have only 3 wins in their last 11 games. Boston is 5 games out of the final AL Wild Card berth and 11 games out of the AL East lead.
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Royals at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Auston Cox vs. LHP James Paxton
Cox (0.1, 3.58 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 27 2/3 IP.
- As a starter: 0-1 with 7.56 across 8 1/3 IP over 2 starts
- Has not allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 appearances (4 1/3 IP)
- Last start: No decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-4 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins on July 3
Paxton (6-3, 3.60 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 75 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-3 home loss to Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- The Red Sox are 6-8 when he starts and have lost 3 of his last 4 outings
Royals at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Red Sox -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +2.5 (-140) | Red Sox -2.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Royals at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
There is no real reason to consider a wager on the Red Sox (-250) due to the steep risk vs. reward.
The Royals (+190) are 16-43 on the road this season and 3-9 in their last 12 road contests, so betting them to win outright would be to buck season-long trends.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Royals are 46-70 ATS overall this season, the 2nd-worst mark in all of baseball. The Red Sox are 58-56 ATS.
However, only 3 of Boston’s last 8 wins have been by at least 3 runs.
BET ROYALS +2.5 (-140).
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Over/Under
Five of the Royals’ last 7 games have had 11 or more runs.
Only 2 of the last 15 for the Red Sox have reached 11 total runs.
BET UNDER 10.5 (-110).
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