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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) face off in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Sunday’s kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s odds for Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had 1 of the best seasons of his young career in 2022, leading the league in passing yards (5,250), passing TDs (41), passing 1st downs (272), passes of 20+ yards (73) and passes of 40+ yards (13) during the regular season.
Mahomes’ success makes his props some of the most enticing bets for the Super Bowl. Let’s dive into his player props and find the best bets.
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Patrick Mahomes 2023 Super Bowl prop bets
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:41 p.m. ET.
Passing yards: OVER 288.5 (-115)
The Over for Mahomes’ passing yards prop is 6-4 in his last 10 games, and he has also gone over 300 passing yards in 6 of his last 10 games.
The Eagles have allowed a team to throw for Over 288.5 passing yards just once this season — Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 347 yards in a 40-33 win over the Eagles in Week 16. However, it’s no secret that the QB competition the Eagles faced this season was subpar at best.
Mahomes just put up 326 yards passing on the Cincinnati Bengals defense with a hurt ankle. In fact, that hurt ankle is part of the reason why he threw for more yards — he chose to stay in the pocket for most of the game instead of using his legs to pick up yardage. With 2 weeks of rest, Mahomes’ ankle should be better, but he should still be able to get close to 300.
LEAN OVER 288.5 (-115).
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Pass completions: OVER 25.5 (-115)
The Over in pass completions is split 5-5 in Mahomes’ last 10 games. The Under has generally hit when either the majority of the game was firmly in the Chiefs’ control (like the Chiefs’ wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks) or when the Chiefs’ offense struggled (like the Week 13 loss to the Bengals).
In recent games when the opposing team has been more competitive (like the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game or both matchups against the Denver Broncos), Mahomes has tended to throw more completions. This game should be close and competitive, so expect Mahomes to reach the Over.
BET OVER 25.5 (-115).
Passing TDs: OVER 1.5 (-220)
Mahomes has hit Over 1.5 passing TDs in 14 of 19 games this season, including 7 of his last 10. Over 1.5 is an easy bet, hence the low vig at -220.
This line would be more interesting if it moved to 2.5 passing TDs. Mahomes has gone Over 2.5 in 8 of 19 games this year, including 3 of his last 10. With the Chiefs’ running game rolling, I’d consider betting Under 2.5 passing TDs for Mahomes if that was an option.
Since it’s not an option, your best move is to bet OVER 1.5 (-220), but you should only include it in a parlay since the juice is so low.
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Rushing yards: UNDER 18.5 (-115)
Mahomes was forced to remain in the pocket for most of the AFC Championship Game due to the high-ankle sprain that he suffered in the Divisional Round. He picked up yards on his feet when it truly mattered but still ultimately rushed for just 8 yards.
In fact, Mahomes has rushed for just 8 yards in 4 of his last 5 games, and under 10 yards in 6 of his last 8. Mahomes is just as comfortable in the pocket as he is running, so don’t expect him to take off much in this game.
TAKE UNDER 18.5 (-115).
Interceptions thrown: UNDER 0.5 (-115)
Mahomes has thrown just 1 interception in his last 6 games. The Eagles defense, meanwhile, has 3 INTs in its last 8 games against non-impressive QB competition. It seems unlikely that Mahomes will give the ball away in such a pivotal matchup.
TAKE UNDER 0.5 (-115).
Pass attempts: OVER 38.5 (-115)
The Over is 5-5 in Mahomes’ last 10 with this stat. Similar to our rationale on taking OVER 25.5 (-115) PASS COMPLETIONS, we like the Over on pass attempts since the Chiefs tend to pass more against competitive squads.
LEAN OVER 38.5 (-125).
Rushing/receiving touchdown(s)
- Anytime (+500) | 2+: (+5000) | 3+: (+15000)
AVOID. It’s very unlikely Mahomes will run 1 in given his ankle issues. Plus, he has just 4 rushing TDs this season and hasn’t had 1 since Week 16.
Passing yards
- 200+: (-2941) | 250+: (-375) | 300+: (-105)
- 350+: (+280) | 400+: (+1050) | +450: (+1200)
There’s good value in nearly doubling your money by betting on Mahomes to earn OVER 300 passing yards. He’s accomplished this feat in 11 out of 19 games this season, even against quality defenses like the Bengals, Broncos (twice), Los Angeles Chargers and 49ers. 350+ yards (+280) would be pushing it — he’s only gone over 350 four times this season — though it’s not out of the question.
Rushing yards
- 40+: (+650) | 50+: (+725)
AVOID.
Since we’re backing UNDER 18.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115), a play here wouldn’t make sense. Even if Mahomes manages to get 19+ rushing yards, he’s still unlikely to hit 40 — he’s done so only once this season.
More 2023 Super Bowl coverage
- Odds, picks and predictions for the big game
- Player props: Travis Kelce | Jalen Hurts
- Cheat sheet: Picks and predictions galore
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
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