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New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton has earned a reputation as one of the more aggressive draft-day traders around the NFL these days, and for good reason. He burned a future pick just to spite a former assistant in acquiring a prospect they coveted. His team has made bold moves to acquire players like Marcus Davenport, and even this year twice moved up the board to go get Zack Baun and Adam Trautman.
So why couldn’t Payton move up two or three spots to add Justin Jefferson?
The rookie Pro Bowler has been prolific for the Minnesota Vikings, breaking the record Randy Moss set for first-year receptions (73 and counting) while closing in on his receiving yards mark, too (Jefferson has 1,182; Moss had 1,313 as a rookie). Jefferson starred in a similar offense just up the road at LSU, and he was a popular connection to New Orleans in mock drafts after looking like such a simple fit to their system. The Vikings selected Jefferson at No. 22 in this year’s draft, while the Saints settled for Ruiz at No. 24.
Given how poorly the banged-up Saints receiving corps has played late this season, it’s easy to question their decision to stand pat and draft Michigan center Cesar Ruiz, who was converted to right guard in training camp and still hasn’t won that starting job. He’s only getting first-team reps right now because the veteran he couldn’t displace, Nick Easton, has been sidelined by a concussion.
Maybe this all looks different in a few years. Jefferson could regress closer to the modest expectations he faced coming out of college. Ruiz might move back to his natural position in 2021 and earn All-Pro notice for the next decade. Who’s to say what happens both players get a full offseason of work with opponents having plenty of game tape to study and prepare with?
But for now, it sure seems like the Saints botched this. Even the humblest projections for Jefferson would have outperformed what their patchwork receiving corps has accomplished. They do deserve a mulligan for Michael Thomas dealing with a season-long injury, Emmanuel Sanders catching COVID-19, and, sure, Drew Brees missing a month. That doesn’t change the fact that the Saints could have made an easy move up the draft board to land a big upgrade at a position of need.
They didn’t lack for draft capital. New Orleans later traded away their third-round picks in 2020 and 2021 because they so badly needed Baun, a Wisconsin pass rusher who they decided to convert to a stand-up linebacker role and who has only joined the defense on the field 56 times this year, logging more snaps in coverage (10) than as a pass rusher (7), per Pro Football Focus.
The Saints also traded their fourth-, fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-round selections to acquire Trautman, their backup tight end who has drawn 13 targets in 13 games this year. He’s on an interesting career trajectory, but at the end of the day the Saints traded a lot of picks for two players that haven’t helped the team as much as Jefferson might have.
Someone somewhere along the line messed up this evaluation. Like other teams, maybe they wrote Jefferson off as a receiver limited to the slot who flourished with a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. He’s proven to be much more than that.
And the Saints could pay for it on Friday, when Jefferson’s Vikings visit the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. He’ll be in position to match up with either Marshon Lattimore or Janoris Jenkins; Lattimore was largely assigned to cover Adam Thielen in the Vikings’ playoff win in New Orleans back in January, with Jenkins taking Stefon Diggs out of the game. Maybe the Saints take a different approach this time.
Still, it’ll always be disappointing to see Jefferson thriving for Minnesota when the Saints were so close to having a shot at him. If he keeps up his historic pace, they’ll be stuck asking themselves “What if?” for quite a long time.
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