In a featherweight bout in the main event, Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
Emmett is looking to bounce back after losing in a February title fight to Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284. Prior to that setback, Emmett had won 5 straight fights to earn his title shot against Rodriguez. Emmett had gone the distance in each of the previous 3 fights before his February defeat.
Topuria burst onto the UFC scene in October 2020 with a unanimous-decision win over Youssef Zalal. That started a 5-0 run with 3 KO/TKO wins and his most recent submission victory over Bryce Mitchell at UFC 282 in December.
Emmett is the grizzled veteran at 38 years old, trying to hold on to what is his. Topuria is the next hotshot prospect at just 26 years old. Emmett holds the 1-inch reach advantage, and he has a 4.17-to-3.32 significant strikes landed per minute. However, the Georgian fighter is much more accurate at 53.27% on those strikes, to just 39.39% for Emmett.
In the ground game, Topuria also has a 2.45-to-1.07 takedown-average advantage, and he has a 46.15% takedown accuracy to just 37.93% for Emmett. Plus, the huge favorite has a 2.45 submission average, while Emmett has a mere 0.10.
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UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:53 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Emmett +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Topuria -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +176 | Under -230)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +460 | No -750)
UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria picks and predictions
Records: Emmett (18-3-0) | Topuria (13-0-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
It’s wily veteran against hot prospect, and one of the more interesting fights in non-PPV cards in recent memory.
Topuria (-350) is likely to continue his meteoric rise against Emmett (+280), who is getting a little long in the tooth. However, it’s not wise to risk 3½ times your potential return on the heavy favorite.
PASS, and get a little more creative instead.
Over/Under (O/U)
Topuria hasn’t ended up going the distance since his UFC debut against Zalal in October 2020, while Emmett had ended up inside the distance just once in his past 4 outings.
The books strongly feel this one is going to end with some sort of a stoppage, but it’s extremely profitable to bet on YES (+460): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for an opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 4.6 times.
If you’re not sold on that, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+176) is also a pretty solid opportunity at plus-money, especially since your wager won’t depend on who wins.
However, combining TOPURIA BY POINTS (+850) is also worth a roll of the dice. It’s a lot more profitable than Topuria by KO/TKO (+175). No one could blame bettors for taking a look at the latter, either.
I like big-time values, however, and this card has a ton of potential huge paydays if the heavy favorite can go the distance and win.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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