Bracketology for January 28
The Wisconsin Badgers are moving in the wrong direction. They are only three games above .500 at 12-9 after their loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Teams barely above .500 don’t USUALLY make the NCAA Tournament. Exceptions exist, but normally, finishing something like 17-14 or 16-14 doesn’t lead to a ticket to the Big Dance.
This, however, is not a normal year in college basketball. We will have more to say on that in future articles here at Badgers Wire. For now, though, simply absorb the latest projected bracket from Joe Lunardi, the godfather of bracketology, just before February begins and the projections for the 2020 NCAA Tournament begin to become more serious and more relevant to the chase for bubble spots and seeding positions.
If you needed to know just how unusual this season is, look at where Lunardi placed the Badgers. Not only are they still in the field of 68 after their loss to Iowa — which is not a surprise — they are a higher seed in the first round, a No. 7 seed.
People will have different conceptions or frameworks of what it means to be a “bubble team” more than a month before Selection Sunday. This early in the season, with six weeks left until the selection show, too many games remain unplayed to offer a precise analysis of which teams are truly on the edge in the hunt for tournament bids. The most reasonable approach to bubble analysis at this stage of a season is to emphasize the need to avoid bad losses and seize quality-win opportunities at every turn. “Medium” losses — in other words, losses to decent teams (not great, not terrible) — can easily be absorbed in isolation, but not as part of a four-game losing streak.
If you had to define what a “bubble team” is in late January — with a month and a half of basketball to be played before the selection show — you will get a different answer from almost everyone. My answer is this: If you are a lower seed in the first round — in other words, a 9 seed or lower — you’re a bubble team. Wisconsin is therefore just out of immediate danger for now.
Again, though, with this much time before Selection Sunday, teams and fans can’t spend too much time plotting out their paths to the NCAA Tournament. Teams need to win a lot more than they lose. Let’s keep it simple. We can get into the specific details of one game here or one game there when February ends and the bubble comparisons emerge with much greater clarity.
Here is the cautionary note about being a 7 seed, just above the bubble “danger” threshold: With so many games left, a lot of teams which might appear to be good wins right now could still become much less attractive teams by the end of February. The quality of a given win on a resume can change for the worse, not just for the better.
If Marquette loses five games in a row, for example, that hurts Wisconsin.
If Ohio State loses four in a row, that hurts Wisconsin.
Don’t get too wrapped up into the bubble conversation right now, but do note that if Wisconsin’s recent run of losses has you worried, bracketology offers considerable reason to not panic.
