The NFL used to be a ground-and-pound, defense-wins championships type of league, but those days are long gone, replaced by analytics and next-gen stats.
Paul Domowitch has had a legendary career as an NFL reporter, and he’s taking his talents to The 33rd Team after retiring from The Inquirer after decades of great content.
In his latest article, Domowitch breaks down the NFL’s love for analytics, the part Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie and Joe Banner played in shepherding a new era of statistics-based football.
“We had some observations before we got into the league; basic things that nobody was challenging,’’ Banner said. “Things like the whole notion that you had to run early and couldn’t throw off play-action without running early, and the notion that you had to wear down the other team by running.
“Things that, to this day, many people still say and believe. You’d talk to people and ask them why, and nobody really had an answer. And they weren’t going to listen to two guys like us who were being identified, and frankly, demonized at the time, as non-football guys.’’
Lurie hired three staffers from MIT after purchasing the Eagles.
The rest is history, as Banner passed down his vision to a young Howie Roseman, who has carried the mantle while adding his genius to the methodology.
Lurie and Banner helped Philadelphia and other teams move away from primarily running the football on first downs while utilizing innovative theories that currently carry the NFL.
ESPN cited the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Eagles as the three most analytically advanced teams. They also finished 1-2-3 for the highest level of analytics work and incorporated their analytics into decision-making.
The six teams ranked last in the usage of analytics were the Las Vegas Raiders, the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chicago Bears, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Arizona Cardinals.
The Commanders are making it known they are positioning Sam Howell for their QB1 in the 2023 season. Should they draft a quarterback? Should they sign a free-agent quarterback?
“I think the Commanders are a quarterback away from being a good team. I don’t know that they are a quarterback away from being a great team. There’s more that needs to be done. Some of it may be done by replacing the offensive coordinator. Hopefully, they will use opportunities in the offseason to upgrade some of the talent.”
“You have to draft well, and they have to keep those players. There is more opportunity than there has even been to build a team more through free agency. For years you could not win a championship doing that.”
“I always preferred to draft and develop my own players at the most important positions. But you have to be very careful not to be fooling yourself if you think you have solutions, but you don’t.”
Banner says he watched only a bit of Howell prior to the draft and therefore does not have a solid opinion regarding Howell. He added that other people have studied more and have stronger convictions. But, of course, that alone does not indicate whether they are accurate or not.
“It would worry me to think we were going to put most of our eggs in the basket of a fifth-round draft choice. It presumes the rest of the league missed, which we know does occasionally happen, but not that often. I like to bet on the odds; I don’t like to swim upstream.”
“The odds are the fifth-round draft choice that everyone else passed on is not suddenly the answer after 20 years of searching for a quarterback. So, I would be concerned if that was the only thing we were going to do.”
“Whatever way, they should not prejudge this and be afraid of past mistakes or successes they have had. They should just be evaluating every quarterback that could possibly be a member of this team…. It’s not because one is a veteran and one is a young guy. Not because one guy has a skill, another guy does not.”
“You want a clean slate, no bias brought to the table, finding out who can take this team to a level we haven’t seen in a long time. Anything else runs the risk of creating bias, which increases the odds of making a mistake.”
Howell only took snaps in one game this season. Here is a video claiming to contain each run and pass by Howell in the Commanders’ 26-6 win over the Cowboys.
Our @EdEastonJr asked @The33rdTeamFB’s @RealTannenbaum and @JoeBanner13 to share their thoughts on the #Chiefs’ season so far.
The decisions made in the front offices of every team in the NFL have direct effects on the product on the field. The Kansas City Chiefs’ success on the field during the 2022 NFL season has a direct correlation with some of the decisions made this past offseason.
Chiefs Wire’s Ed Easton Jr. recently sat down with former NFL executives Mike Tannenbaum and Joe Banner to get their thoughts on the Chiefs this season. The executives spoke on behalf of The 33rd Team and assessed Andy Reid and Brett Veach’s most recent work and how it has led to consistent success.
“Yeah, I think what they did is really impressive from a standpoint. Like, I think when you move on from a guy like Tyreek Hill, it’s a little bit of a resource allocation discussion,” said Tannenbaum. “There’s other guys, (Marquez) Valdes-Scantling or (JuJu) Smith-Schuster. Taking Skyy Moore in the second round, and we’re gonna serve to allocate that money to other areas of the team, be it offensive line or certainly on defense.”
Tannenbaum spent years as an executive for multiple NFL teams, most recently from 2015 – 2018 with the Miami Dolphins after 15 years in the New York Jets organization. As the founder of The 33rd Team, he constantly evaluates decisions made around the league, including the Chiefs trading up for Trent McDuffie during April’s NFL draft.
“I thought what was interesting in the draft was, you know, when they traded for (Trent) McDuffie,” said Tannenbaum. “That was with New England. I thought Belicheck was gonna take McDuffie; I thought he was like the perfect New England corner. I think him and (George) Karlaftis have a chance to be foundational players. And I think (Willie) Gay and (Nick) Bolton can both run. So I like what they’re doing defensively. And I agree with what Joe said about Spags (Steve Spagnuolo). He’s a really good coach. So I think over the course of the season, like they’re getting better, which is obviously being really well-coached. And I think they have a chance to be there again at the end.”
Andy Reid’s head coaching career began in 1999 with the Philadelphia Eagles. He was hired by the then-team executive and later president Joe Banner. The Eagles, under Banner’s leadership, went to five NFC Championship games in eight seasons and played in Super Bowl XXXIX. Banner weighed in on the Chiefs’ progress as well but gave tremendous praise to Reid and his staff.
“It’s not a mistake that — or a coincidence that all of Andy Reid’s teams — they do two things: They get better as the season goes and they win after (bye weeks),” said Banner. “So assume what you’re seeing right now is that the team will be much better over the next two and four weeks.”
As the 2022 season winds down, the Chiefs will be in the mix for another Super Bowl title. A trip to another AFC Championship game alone is a tremendous badge of honor for those that don’t wear the pads in the organization, but they’ll look to go the distance again come playoff time.
See where these two undrafted Alabama players are expected to make the roster!
The NFL draft unfortunately didn’t go as planned for both Alabama DT [autotag]LaBryan Ray[/autotag] and EDGE [autotag]Christopher Allen[/autotag] as neither heard their names announced during the three day event in Las Vegas. However, the good news for these two is that over 30% of the NFL is un-drafted free agents.
The 33rd Team, which is a website ran by Mike Tannenbaum and Joe Banner, published an article discussing which un-drafted player from each of the 32 NFL teams is most likely to make their respective team. Tannenbaum is the former GM of the New York Jets and Banner was formerly the Philadelphia Eagles President and Cleveland Browns CEO, so it is safe to say that these two are about as credible as it gets.
The New England Patriots chose Ray due to the Patriots high rotation in defensive linemen and a need for depth. It is also well known that Nick Saban and Bill Belichick have a great relationship and he trusts the players coming out of Tuscaloosa.
As for the Denver Broncos they went with Allen as they have a need for a rusher coming off the edge. The Broncos did sign Randy Gregory from the Cowboys as well as using a second round pick on the position, but when trying to replace a guy like Von Miller it is important to have all options available.
For both of these Alabama guys to be recognized by such reputable members of the media should speak volumes.
Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Sam Murphy on Twitter @SamMurphy02.
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Former Eagles front-office executive Joe Banner told The Inquirer that he believes there’s less than a 10% chance Howie Roseman is fired.
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The Philadelphia Eagles are four weeks away from having to make some huge decisions on personnel, the coaching staff, and quarterback, Carson Wentz.
Doug Pederson could be out, Carson Wentz could be moved, and Howie Roseman could be held accountable as well, but one former Eagles president believes the team’s current general manager is beyond safe from the chopping block.
During his weekly Q&A with The Inquirer, former Eagles president Joe Banner was asked about Howie Roseman’s job security amid Philadelphia’s disastrous season.
Banner told Paul Domowitch that there’s less than a “10% percent chance” that Roseman wouldn’t be retained by owner Jeffrey Lurie.
“It’s not like I’m speaking to people in the building who are sharing that kind of information with me. So I don’t have any inside information. But I know how Jeff thinks. I know how much confidence he has in Howie. I know, in his mind, he’ll view Howie’s 8-10-year record, including winning a Super Bowl rather than the last couple of years. I think he has tremendous trust in Howie. And I’d be very surprised if there was a move there. I don’t think there’s even a 10% chance of it happening. So obviously I’ll be very wrong if it does. But I don’t think I will be.”
Roseman is a salary-cap wizard and has done well in free agency or trade acquisitions, but it’s been the drafting of players that could truly be the GM’s undoing.
He’s close with the owner and things could simply come down to Lurie choosing the coach or a quarterback while letting his GM remain.
Touchdown Wire guest columnist and former NFL executive Joe Banner discusses how coronavirus is affecting teams’ short- and long-term plans.
The ability to work in the NFL is a gift. There is the thrill of the games, the exhilaration of getting a contract done with a key player, or the moment a player slips to you in the draft when you thought he was out of reach. Most of the time, though, your responsibility as an NFL executive is dealing with the same type of details and plans that are a part of any other job when the world enters an unpredictable phase. That’s what front offices feel like when you don’t know when the league year will start, what the rules are, dates and location of the draft, and whether the 2020 season will happen as planned.
Let’s briefly revisit September 2001 to see if it may inform the types of decisions the league and its teams face today with the coronavirus pandemic. I was the Eagles’ team president at the time of 9/11. The biggest decision then was whether to play regular-season games or postpone them. The league ultimately decided to postpone the Week 2 games and to play them at the end of the regular season and push the playoffs a week back as well. The similarity here is that all the open questions are totally in the hands of the league, and the execution of those decisions is left to the teams. There are a few committees and some trusted owners that the league will consult with, but otherwise, you are just sitting by the phone waiting for answers.
Browns CEO Joe Banner appear at a news conference in Berea, Ohio, on Jan. 11, 2013. (David Richard – USA TODAY Sports)
The league is likely to have developed a policy or at least a guideline for almost anything you can imagine. It is the same with the well-run teams. When I was with the Eagles, we had an internal group that I would bring together when things happened that might upset the timing of the calendar at any given point. We would make a list of all the possible things that could come up, and have subgroups start to gather information or begin to put a plan together that we could implement.
Right now, that’s a long list of possibilities. That’s really the biggest challenge for team planning at this moment. You would want your group to plan for outcomes in the next few days, as well as those as far out as training camp and the regular season.
Other than being ready for all outcomes, there is not much you can do right now, and you have no control over the most important decisions.
I recently spoke with someone from the league whom I trust. This person said that it was a 95% possibility that the league year and free agency would start as scheduled, which has proven out. The draft will happen on time, but some question whether it will be a major public event as it has been in recent years. We are at least 3-4 months away from any decisions on preseason games and longer than that on the regular season.
I also called two teams regarding their future planning. The answer was nothing. Both teams had taken scouts off the road (as all teams have) and have people working from home. This was decided over the past week, and the people I spoke with feel like it’s months from having anything else to figure out.
The possibility that the pandemic could get a lot worse before it gets better is an argument for keeping free agency on schedule, so it doesn’t affect the draft or offseason workouts when conditions get better. On the other hand, some elements of free agency — most clearly player physicals — would need to be dealt with differently than usual. I don’t think the league will or should be driven by optics. The league should make a prudent decision that is driven by health concerns and that preserves their future plans if things are better in a few months. The truth is that optics are likely to be awful for a fairly long time.
Everything is different than it was just a month ago, and the offseason schedule for the NFL is not getting a pass. Time and circumstances will answer some of the future questions and others will fire up the second-guessers who may not have anything else to talk about.
It’s a good time to not be a decision-maker, when it is so easy to be criticized no matter which way you go. Either way, it’s a no-win situation.
Joe Banner served as president of the Philadelphia Eagles from 1995 through 2012. He also served as CEO of the Cleveland Browns in 2012 and 2013 and worked as a front office consultant for the Atlanta Falcons in 2014 and 2015. In 2001, Banner received a “PARTNERS Leadership Award” from the University of Pennsylvania for extensive community service, including reading to students in Boston public schools and spending time with severely ill youths at Boston Children’s Hospital. He also has been heavily involved, in Boston and Philadelphia, with City Year, a program based on volunteers who commit to a year of full-time work.
A former NFL executive says the proposed collective bargaining agreement that players are voting on this week isn’t a great deal, but players should probably approve it anyway.
A former NFL executive says the proposed collective bargaining agreement that players are voting on this week isn’t a great deal, but players should probably approve it anyway.
A former NFL executive says the proposed collective bargaining agreement that players are voting on this week isn’t a great deal, but players should probably approve it anyway.
A former NFL executive says the proposed collective bargaining agreement that players are voting on this week isn’t a great deal, but players should probably approve it anyway.
Ex-Browns CEO Joe Banner warns the players about rejecting the CBA offer in his debut piece for Touchdown Wire
Former Cleveland Browns CEO Joe Banner has joined our brother site, Touchdown Wire, to offer his analysis on the current state of the NFL. Banner leads off with a warning to current players to not lose out on the current collective bargaining agreement offer from ownership.
Banner, who spent most of his NFL management career with the Philadelphia Eagles, discussed several of the gains the players will tangibly acquire from the current offer. Among them:
An increase in overall revenue percentage
More time off during the season
Increase in minimum salaries
More performance-based pay increases
Changes in drug testing policies
Banner then breaks it down succinctly,
Did the players get enough in return for the major concession the owners sought? My answer is a clear yes.
Is it a great deal for the players? No.
Is it a solid deal that impacts a wide range of important issues that cover a large number of players? Yes.
Most importantly, if you have a vote or an opinion, is the risk of saying no and possibly ending up with a worse deal worth giving up the gains you have made?
This is the easiest answer. Absolutely not.
Keep on the lookout for more offerings from Banner, who continues to be an independent thinker in his post-NFL career. He was the Browns’ chief executive offer from 2012-2013 after more than 20 years with the Eagles organization.
Former Eagles president and Browns CEO Joe Banner breaks down the pivotal issues of the collective bargaining agreement negotiations.
[Editor’s note: Joe Banner, former president of the Philadelphia Eagles and CEO of the Cleveland Browns, will write a series of guest columns for Touchdown Wire revealing myriad details about how the NFL really works. In his debut column, Joe makes his case for the new collective bargaining agreement proposal as a fair enough deal for both owners and players.]
I was lucky enough to spend 20 great years working in the NFL. I spent almost all that time with the Philadelphia Eagles. I have always believed that the ability to negotiate is a valuable skill in life. It was my time at the Eagles that really affirmed that opinion. Whether it was getting a new stadium, negotiating player contracts or being invited by the NFL owners to be part of the team that negotiated the 2010 collective bargaining agreement.
Is there a simple way for a fan or a player to look at the current CBA proposal? I think there is, because truthfully, there are not that many moving parts. The players made some concessions; the owners did the same, and as is always the case, both parties agreed to continue with a number of items as is.
Let’s recap what happened. If we stay focused on the issues that each side decided mattered to them, we can do that pretty easily. The owners went into the negotiation with a clear priority, which was expanding the regular season to 17 games and adding an extra playoff game in each conference. The players went with a very long list of items seeking incremental progress across the board. I have had the benefit of seeing the initial request. It is important to note that the divergence of one side pursuing a top priority and the other seeking a wide range of things informed everything which happened after that.
The union leadership with support from a large number of players engaged in a negotiation to see if they could impact enough areas to a satisfactory degree to do a deal in return for the one issue upon which ownership was focused. This is why it is easy to pick a category and feel like the players should’ve gotten more. But context in negotiating matters. The retired players got a 50% increase in their annual payout, and now the program covers players with three accrued seasons, when the CBA used to require four. That’s a bunch of former players, and in context, it is a significant win.
Browns CEO Joe Banner appears at a news conference in Berea, Ohio, on Jan. 11, 2013. (David Richard – USA TODAY Sports)
Minimum salary players get a 20% increase immediately and then continued increases to push them up close to the union’s goal over time. There is also an increase in performance-based pay, almost all will of which will go to this same group of players.
Veterans got a formula of sharing that is likely to create an increase the cap from its current $200 million level to approximately $300M million in five years and more than $400M over 10 years. That’s an average of 50% increase of current player salaries at all levels of pay and performance within five years. Therefore, in five years a top quarterback will have contracts over $50 million annually, a top safety at $23 million, and even a solid veteran starting linebacker will earn between $15 million and $20 million. This growth also impacts everyone from a punter to a second-year reserve player to a guy who only plays special teams. The 1.5% increase from 47% to 48.5% will be worth almost $300 million per year and $3 billion (yes, billion) over the course of the deal. This reflects the incremental increase from this deal versus the last deal, just in this one area. This in context is in addition to all the other gains reflected here.
All players benefit from changes in player discipline, drug testing, reduced work schedule and contact during those practices. They all also get an increase in days off and recovery time especially impacting the lighter training camp. Additionally, they get improvements in pension, health and other post-career categories to the best benefit package you could imagine. Current and former players also get extended post-career medical benefits, a top player priority. There is more, but I think you get the point.
Top quarterbacks such as Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes could earn salaries of more than $50 million within five years if players approve the current collective bargaining agreement offer. (Robert Deutsch – USA TODAY Sports)
Did the players get enough in return for the major concession the owners sought? My answer is a clear yes.
Is it a great deal for the players? No.
Is it a solid deal that impacts a wide range of important issues that cover a large number of players? Yes.
Most importantly, if you have a vote or an opinion, is the risk of saying no and possibly ending up with a worse deal worth giving up the gains you have made?
This is the easiest answer. Absolutely not.
A key element of negotiating is to know your opponent. Many of us who have been in the league and negotiated contracts knew, for example, that Ezekiel Elliott would get a new deal from Dallas if he stuck to his guns. We also knew that Melvin Gordon was going to take the Chargers’ last offer or get nothing better.
Apply that to the CBA. The owners believe they negotiated a good faith deal for 10 months and gave up things they cared about and got things they wanted in return. The union leadership thinks the same. You can take the Gordon approach and risk a good deal to try to hit a home run or know your opponent and realize, as Gordon eventually did, that the deal only gets worse from here. If this version of the CBA didn’t at least reach good status, and there weren’t major potential costs for a delay, I’d be the first in line to tell the players to prove that they are just as tough as the owners and fight on. The fact is that this is no better than good for both sides, and if you can get there without having to declare war or risk the unknown, it’s better for everyone.
Right now, it’s perceived that being against the deal is a pro-player position. If the players vote no, everyone will know as this plays out that the pro-player position is to vote yes. It seems that people telling the players to vote no are perceived to be fighting for or standing up for players. Whereas people like myself who suggest a yes vote are perceived to be giving into the owners. If the deal offered in a year is worse than the one offered now, people will realize the pro-player position now was to vote yes when the deal was at its best.
Joe Banner served as president of the Philadelphia Eagles from 1995 through 2012. He also served as CEO of the Cleveland Browns in 2012 and 2013 and worked as a front office consultant for the Atlanta Falcons in 2014 and 2015. In 2001, Banner received a “PARTNERS Leadership Award” from the University of Pennsylvania for extensive community service, including reading to students in Boston public schools and spending time with severely ill youths at Boston Children’s Hospital. He also has been heavily involved, in Boston and Philadelphia, with City Year, a program based on volunteers who commit to a year of full-time work.
