Tag: Jimmy Johnson chart

Trade charts radically conflict on value of Sam Howell pick swap

That makes the trade much easier to swallow.

When the Sam Howell trade first went down last week, we got a sinking feeling when we read the Seahawks had effectively given up a third-round pick to get him, according to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart.

However, a more modern pick valuation chart has a radically different take on the deal. According to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart, Seattle only gave Washington the equivalent of a seventh-round pick, No. 241 overall.

That makes the trade much easier to swallow. Howell has a lot of the same characteristics as Drew Lock, who performed well in backup duty behind Geno Smith last season. If the Seahawks really believe they can get Howell to cut down on his turnover-worthy plays they might get a potentially high-quality starter down the line. For now, Howell is still a largely unknown commodity.

Our take on the trade is that it’s fine in a vacuum, but if it stops the Seahawks from picking a quarterback in the upcoming draft then it’s not so good. There are a lot of ways to build a winning roster in the NFL, but finding a strong starting quarterback on a rookie contract is still the quickest path to being a contender.

Most likely the Howell deal means we won’t be seeing Seattle pick one of the top six quarterbacks in this class – including Washington’s Michael Penix. However, there’s still a chance they may roll the dice on one in Day 3. Our favorite developmental prospect is South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler, but there are many other options in this class that will likely still be available in Rounds 4-5.

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The Cowboys’ total draft haul is less valuable than Philly’s first pick, according to the famed chart. Dallas needs to nail every selection. | From @ToddBrock24f7

Cowboys fans still have close to a month to ruminate over how the front office will spend their seven picks in the 2023 draft. And while seven selections is a nice number, the simple truth is that not all draft picks are not equal.

Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson knew this all too well, and he helped develop a numerical chart that illustrates just how much more valuable the No. 1 pick is than No. 227… and even how pick values drop within each round. There’s a massive difference between the value of the first pick in the first round and, say, the 15th or eighth or even the third pick in the first round.

Johnson created his chart in the early ’90s while he was with the Cowboys, and every other team in the league eventually adopted some version of it. While analytics experts have refined the chart in the years since to make it more accurate according to historical trends, the numerical values that Johnson originally came up with (3,000 for the No. 1 pick and decreasing from there) still make for a useful tool when analyzing each team’s draft capital.

Good thing the Cowboys have been aggressive in improving their roster ahead of the draft this year, because the chart shows them bringing up the rear within their own division in terms of how much talent they can acquire with their current picks.

In fact, Dallas ranks 13th among NFC teams in draft capital; only the Rams, Vikings, and 49ers are scheduled to go into draft weekend with less buying power to work with.

Picks can still be traded, and the Cowboys can still improve their draft capital. But the numbers- and how they stack up against their divisional rivals’- show how imperative it is that the Dallas war room make smart choices with every single card they turn in.

Here’s how the NFC East squads shake out ahead of the 2023 draft, according to Drafttek and using Johnson’s point values.