ESPN’s FPI gives Chargers 1.1% chance of winning Super Bowl

The model isn’t too high on the Chargers.

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the Chargers a 1.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl next year and an 18.9% chance of winning the division over the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos.

However, there is hope of making the playoffs, as the model gives Los Angeles a 45% chance to play beyond the regular season.

Overall, the Bolts are 18th overall, which is ahead of the Bears and one below the Steelers.

The model isn’t particularly high on the Chargers due to losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and their defense, which ranked 29th in EPA last season. Even with the pairing of Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, it’s still below average.

I do feel like it will be a tall task to make it to the Super Bowl, let alone dethrone Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid of the AFC West title. But making the playoffs is a strong possibility, given Harbaugh taking over, the top-end talent and a relatively easy schedule.

PFF: Chargers’ Khalil Mack named to top 30 players over 30

Khalil Mack will be a key piece in Jesse Minter’s defense.

The Chargers have a slew of key veterans on the roster. Among them is edge defender Khalil Mack, who was named one of Pro FootbFocus’cus’ top 30 players over 30.

Mack’s play in 2021 and 2022 indicated some decline as he aged north of 30 with grades in the low 70.0s, but in 2023, he showed he could still be a dominant edge defender (91.8 PFF grade). With a pass-rush win rate of 18.2%, Mack produced 18 sacks.

After considering retiring following the Chargers’ playoff collapse to the Jaguars two seasons ago, Mack had one of the best years of his career in his 10th NFL season.

He set a career-high in sacks for a season with 17 and became the 43rd player in NFL history to hit the 100-sack mark. A menace off the edge, Mack not only got after the quarterback at a high level, but he was also a key contributor at defending the run.

In a season where the defense struggled, Mack remained a bright spot that shined on a weekly basis. For his efforts, he was named to his eighth Pro Bowl.

Mack, Joey Bosa, Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree has the chance of being one of the top edge defender groups.

Chargers DBs coach Steve Clinkscale prioritizing versatility in the secondary

Steve Clinkscale is prioritizing versatility in the defensive backfield.

Chargers defensive backs coach Steve Clinkscale had his first media availability of the offseason. Clinkscale laid out some of Jesse Minter’s defensive vision as well as his expectations for the secondary.

First, he spoke about Minter’s system:

The beauty with Jesse is that he’s a defensive back guy himself. We speak the same language. I can anticipate the issues that he wants, his pet peeves, my pet peeves. It’s been an easy transition to teach those guys what Coach Minter is looking for. With him being a back end guy, we do put a lot of responsibility on the secondary. We put a lot of work into those guys. We want to make sure that they’re going to do things right. That’s a reflection of him and I, right away, the secondary. His vision on the defense is that we’re going to communicate. We’re going to destroy blocks. We’re going to disrupt the ball. We’re going to have great effort and angles. We’re going to finish and make tackles. That’s what we want to put on film week-in and week-out. If you do those fundamental things, whatever he calls, we should be able to work. Sometimes, they’re going to give us something that’s going to be an issue for the coverage, but as long as what our guys know what to go to when in doubt with the check, then when the ball is snapped to enforce our separators, our fundamental approach to the game, we’ll be fine.

Clinkscale also spoke at length about newly signed cornerback Kristian Fulton and what he’s seen from him so far:

I’ll be honest with you, he’s got kind of the rookie mentality. ‘Coach, teach me. Whatever it is, I want to learn. I want to learn. I want to get better at this.’ This is a new lease on life for him. You see it out there. He moves very fluid. You can tell he’s experienced. He’s able to adjust. He’s able to put it in our language fast. He’s a pro. When I got here, you think, ‘Oh, college is different.’ The pros want to learn just like [S] Derwin James [Jr.]. They want to learn. [S] Alohi [Gilman], they all want to get better and look at things a little different way so they can be successful. It’s been great because we all meet together. That’s what we do. We’re all DB coaches. [Safeties] Coach [Chris] O’Leary coaches the nickels, corners, safeties. We’re all together in the room. Just bringing those guys together, getting them on one page — it’s been special. I believe in the mentality has to be right. Working with Kristian and anybody in there, it’s just been special for those guys to come in and know that we’re going to work, I’m going to hold them accountable, now. I’m going to get on them if they’re not doing things right, but they’re going to go out there and they have the ability to execute for our defense to be special.

Clinkscale was asked about what specific roles he envisions for both Fulton as well as Asante Samuel Jr. Regarding slot and outside corner distinction, the former Michigan coach made it clear that everyone in the secondary has to be prepared to do both. “They are all going to rotate in there…I’ve rotated them at corner and at nickel, like I said, so that they have that versatility.”

Clinkscale hit on theme of versatility several times in his preser. Another quote on that subject that drove the point across: “All of the corners have to know nickel and all of the safeties have to know nickel and dime as well as the safety position.” The issue of potential injuries and preparing for that by having secondary players cross-trained for those potential circumstances was also a clear motivating factor for this coaching staff’s approach.

When it came to Derwin James, Clinkscale also mentioned his versatility and potentially putting him at weakside linebacker and slot corner at times. He mentioned the usage of the safeties at Michigan in that context.

It’s still too early to tell who the starters will be in the secondary and at which spots, but it’s clear that this defensive staff wants to be able to move their defensive backs around while not pigeonholing themselves in regards to depth.

Kristian Fulton sounds off on getting fresh start with Chargers

Kristian Fulton is out to prove a point.

After four seasons with the Titans, where he first began his NFL career, Kristian Fulton felt it was time for a new home and signed with the Chargers.

“It’s been great,” Fulton said at his media availability. “I feel like everybody is really on the same page here so they’ve made it easy for everyone with a fresh start here so they can come in and really make it a smooth transition.”

Fulton, a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft, recorded 25 pass breakups and four interceptions throughout four seasons in Tennessee.

Fulton has showcased the skillset to stick with starting wide receivers.

However, recurring injuries hindered Fulton’s tenure with the Titans, forcing him to miss 26 of 67 games. He is also coming off the worst season of his career, but Fulton believes being in Los Angeles will revitalize his play.

“I think what attracted me, obviously I think the coaching staff is excellent, I think they have all the pieces to be a successful team as far as [Jim] Harbaugh, [Jesse] Minter,” Fulton said. “I felt really comfortable with the schemes that they were going to bring in.

“I felt like it was just a great opportunity just to get a fresh start,” Fulton added. “I wanted to go somewhere where the coaches have the same mindset to win. That’s all I’ve been around, so that’s pretty much what led me here.”

Fulton has steadily been adapting to the new scheme and defensive backs coach Steve Clinkscale has been pleased with what he has seen out of him.

“I’ll be honest with you, he’s got kind of the rookie mentality, ‘Coach, teach me. Whatever it is, I want to learn, I want to get better at this,'” Clinkscale said. “This is a new lease on life for him and you see it out there.”

“…..He moves really fluid, you could tell he’s experienced, he’s able to adjust, he’s able to put it in our language fast and he’s a pro.”

Fulton has yet to make a significant mark since entering the league but is working toward changing that.

“I got something to prove every year,” Fulton said. “In my opinion, it wasn’t my best year last year on the field.

“Like I said, every time I step on the field that’s got to be my mindset, to prove a point and that’s what I’m here to do,” Fulton added. “Just make the most of this year.”

Chargers sign EDGE Bud Dupree

The Chargers added a productive veteran edge presence.

The Chargers signed edge defender Bud Dupree on Saturday, the team announced.

According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, it is a two-year deal for Dupree, worth $6 million base and a max value of $10 million.

Dupree joins a talented edge defender room that consists of Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Tuli Tuipulotu.

This signing likely guarantees that Dupree will take over the fourth EDGE spot, which is currently held by Chris Rumph II.

The 31-year-old Dupree began his career with the Steelers after being selected in the first round in 2015. After six seasons with Pittsburgh, he signed with the Titans and spent two seasons with them.

Dupree then signed with the Falcons last season, registering 6.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss, three passes defended and two forced fumbles.

Across nine seasons, Dupree has 305 tackles, 53 sacks, 70 tackles for loss, 90 QB hits and 12 forced fumbles.

Early signs pointing to Derwin James wearing green dot for Chargers during 2024 season

Derwin James was spotted wearing what appeared to be a communications device at voluntary veteran minicamp.

The Chargers uploaded a series of photos from their voluntary veteran minicamp to the team’s website. Perhaps most interestingly, a picture of Derwin James wearing a communications device was uploaded.

Historically, players wearing an earpiece are usually relaying signal calls from the defensive coordinator. In this case, James would be the primary green dot play caller for Jesse Minter.

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James has worked as the team’s green dot previously. Last season, Brandon Staley handed the signal-calling responsibilities to a newly signed free agent in Eric Kendricks entering 2023. After an injury to Kendricks and an early defensive tailspin for the team, the green dot role went back to Kenneth Murray.

James had signal-calling responsibilities in both 2021 and parts of 2022. In 2022, Staley wanted to free up James’ ability to make plays by giving green dot responsibility to former Charger Drue Tranquill early in the season. It was a change of philosophy for Staley relative to how he talked about James’ role when he first was hired.

It’s still too early to suggest that James is getting the green dot role back relative to other options. With the draft quickly approaching, one has to wonder if the Chargers take a linebacker fairly early. Los Angeles publicly met with Michigan’s Junior Colson and Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper in Top 30 visits.

While we’re still a long way away from August and September, James’ contentment with being Minter’s signal relayer is nonetheless interesting and a potentially marked change.

2024 NFL draft: Chargers hosted CB Nate Wiggins on visit

Nate Wiggins is one of the better cornerbacks in this year’s class.

The Chargers hosted Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins on a pre-draft visit, per his Instagram story.

Wiggins was a productive college player. He registered 14 pass deflections in 2022 and eight breakups with two interceptions in 2023. He returned an interception for a touchdown in each of his final two seasons.

Wiggins is a tall and long corner who possesses great athletic traits, having the speed and quickness to run with anyone, as well as great instincts. Additionally, he is versatile to play in different schemes.

The Chargers will be looking for more playmakers in the secondary for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, and Wiggins fits what he covets at the position.

Wiggins projects as a late Round 1 selection, making him a target if the Bolts trade down and add more picks.

2024 NFL draft: Chargers hosted LB Junior Colson on top 30 visit

Junior Colson reunited with some of his former coaches from Michigan.

According to The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, Michigan linebacker Junior Colson is meeting with “friendly faces” in Los Angeles for a top-30 visit with the Chargers.

Presumably, Colson would be reunited with former Michigan coaches Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter at the Chargers’ Costa Mesa facility. It would mark the team’s second official top-30 visit for a Wolverine player in this cycle. Blake Corum had a meeting with the Bolts about two weeks ago.

Colson is arguably the headliner of this linebacker class, along with names like Payton Wilson and Edgerrin Cooper. The Chargers also met with Cooper on April 4th. It looks like LA is at least doing its research on a linebacker class that is viewed as top-heavy by many.

The former Michigan national championship linebacker is considered to be one of the best in coverage in the class. Colson registered an 83.4 PFF grade in coverage in 2023 and run defense grades of 80+ in each of the last two seasons.

The Chargers need more true starting-caliber linebackers even after the signing of Denzel Perryman. Colson, and presumably Daiyan Henley, would go a long way in nullifying some of Perryman’s known coverage deficiencies at his age.

Given Colson’s relationship with Minter, one has to wonder if he’s a potential dark horse candidate to take up green-dot play-calling responsibilities if drafted by the team.

When first hired, Minter stressed the importance of not overwhelming star safety Derwin James with responsibilities. While James could theoretically take over the green dot role post-Brandon Staley, it would be interesting to see if the new Chargers’ defensive coordinator looks towards another name on the defensive side of the ball instead. Colson would undoubtedly be a contender for that responsibility if drafted by LA.

Chargers DC Jesse Minter heaps high praise on Tuli Tuipulotu: ‘Didn’t look like a rookie’

Tuli Tuipulotu is coming off an outstanding rookie season.

Among the players returning that will be vital in Jesse Minter’s defense is edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu, who had an outstanding rookie season.

Minter is familiar with Tuipulotu’s skillset, having watched college film of him while he was at USC, and highlighted his versatility in an interview with team writer Eric Smith.

“I think his last year, we might have had one team that we were watching where there was some crossover film of USC,” Minter said. “The cool thing about him is he’s a guy in college that they moved all over the place — off the ball, up on the edge, they even had him played out in space a little bit.”

Tuipulotu, the former second-round pick, was a monster off the edge, finishing with the second-most quarterback pressures among rookies (51) and an 88.4 run defense grade that only trailed greats Maxx Crosby, DeMarcus Lawrence and Khalil Mack.

“You look at how he played his rookie year and I thought he stepped in and played really well for a rookie,” Minter added. “Didn’t look like a rookie, didn’t feel like a rookie when you were watching him. He plays with the toughness and the physicality that we certainly want our guys to play with.”

Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack’s future with the Chargers is up in the air, as they could be moved to clear up cap space. But one thing that is certain is that Tuipulotu will be on the roster next season and he will be a key piece of Minter’s defense.

Chargers DC Jesse Minter ‘excited to unleash’ Derwin James

Jesse Minter revealed how excited he is to work with the star defensive back.

In a sitdown interview with the Chargers’ Senior Writer Eric Smith, Jesse Minter was asked about the vision for safety Derwin James thriving in his defense. In a rather lengthy response, Minter revealed his excitement to work with the star defensive back.

On his usage, Minter said:

I’m excited just to sort of try to try to unleash Derwin. No. 1, put him in positions to best utilize his skills and — he can do a lot of stuff — but I also think there’s a fine line. Like, ‘Let’s try to maximize Derwin and allow him to do the things that he’s really, really good at as much as possible.’ Sometimes you can get a guy like that and you can almost do too much with him and move him around too much. I want him to understand the concepts of the defense so that there’s certainly times that we can maximize his skillset.

James struggled at points last year when more was placed on his plate in reference to Brandon Staley’s STAR position. He had his slot cornerback snaps slashed in the last two weeks while his proportion of box and free safety snaps increased. The result? James had his highest PFF-graded game of the season against the Broncos and turned in a solid performance against the Chiefs.

The Chargers should still use the athletic versatility of James when they have the opportunity to, but it should be less heavily relied upon in the context of the whole defense.

Minter continued by mentioning James’ eagerness to get to work.

An elite cover guy, particularly on tight ends. And then he’s a physical presence over the middle of the field at the safety position. We want to put him in a position to use his strengths and do all that stuff to the best of his ability But really just most excited about his leadership skills, his eagerness. I feel like he stopped by my office every day the first couple of weeks I was here. He just wanted to talk and wanted to kind of get to know me and what we were trying to build. I like it to look at it as a partnership with these guys. Now we’re in this thing together, we’re building this thing together. Really excited about Derwin and the capabilities he has.